It is imperative that JM & the NDC pick a running mate for the present and future
Dear NDC Elders,
As we are all aware, the year 2024 is a critical and decisive one for the politics of NDC.
It is crucial in the sense that the 2024 elections will determine whether the NDC will continue to stagnate or form the next government. Which is why the selection of Mahama’s running-mate ought to be done with the future of the party in mind.
Respectfully, the time has come for the NDC to exorcise the ghost of election 2016/2020 and confront the future.
There’s simply too much at stake, and it is beyond Naana Jane Opoku-Agyemang and the forces at play or any of the enablers of the status quo. This is about the survival of the National Democratic Congress.
The NDC as a political party needs to reflect on so many things stepping into the 2024 electioneering season.
We must focus on organizing purposefully for victory in 2024. The party needs to position itself to start “measuring” the grounds so as to be purposeful with its choice of a presidential running mate.
The NDC party elders ought to be spending more of their time ensuring that the presidential candidate do not put up a lame duck presidential running-mate candidate who will not only fail to add up to the fortunes of the party in 2024 but sadly keep the party in perpetual opposition.
The party have a once in a century chance to make it obvious to the Ghanaian people that the NDC is ready for the future.
It is true that the NPP and its flagbearer, Dr Bawumia have been left battered and bruised by the current economic anxieties, austerity policy and cost-of-living crisis – but let’s also come to terms with the fact that the failures of the government alone are not enough to secure victory for the NDC.
Quite frankly, a quantitative analysis of our politics shows the 2024 presidential election may not even hinge on the economic outlook – It may well be about voter demography.
In fact, there’s an alignment between Bawumia’s political brand, the demography of Muslim voters and the politics of the Northern Ghana.
The statistics paints a gloomy picture. Bawumia’s presence on the NPP ticket ensured that Mahama lost the three Northern regions in 20212, 2016 and 2020, with NDC vote basket dwindling – The NDC’s vote percentages in the three northern regions in the last three elections underscore Mahama’s difficulty in holding onto a sizable number of the NDC base.
It is also interesting to note that for the first time in 2020, the NPP flipped the Mion seat. Anyone who tells you it was mathematically possible for the NPP to win that seat anytime soon perhaps has no idea about the dynamics in that constituency. Even Chereponi which the NDC won during the by-election in 2009 after the death of Doris Siedu has flipped to the NPP.
And the Damongo seat with its NDC history is gone. As a matter of fact John Mahama’s own Bole constituency is literally on a time bomb and can flip anytime to the NPP.
To all intent and purposes, the total votes combined from the 9 out of the 16 regions perceived as the NDC stronghold can deliver only 30% of the valid votes towards a presidential election. And any further decline in votes, will need a special magic to turn other split regions into NDC’s vote basket to be able to win the 2024 election.
In fact, if the 2020 elections proved anything, even beyond the increasing NPP tilt of the electorate, it was that the NDC is losing leverage in the three northern regions.
Cumulatively, that leaves Mahama to do something unique in the selection of his presidential running-mate.
Of course, the presidential candidate carries the ticket and makes the argument for his election, and the VP nominee complements whatever weaknesses in style, political or geographical balance.
And beyond inflicting damage on Bawumia, and appealing to the cultural alienation and economic anxiety of the Ghanaian voter, the NDC leader must necessarily pull his party’s base close and set his cruise control on undecided voters when deciding on his would-be veep.
It’s true though that sometimes a Vice-Presidential pick meant to appease regional and ethnic groupings can backfire, like it happened in 2020 when central region ditched the NDC for NPP in the presidential votes even though the NDC had an indigen on the ticket. But then it’s also the case that the right Vice Presidential pick with the right political consciousness and appeal can help carry his or her home-region.
Additionally, the assumptions that victory in 2024 is a done deal and JM can win without the input of a running mate fueling the dismissive posture of some political neophytes and fanatics regarding a strategic approach to selecting a running mate ought to be placed in a proper context.
In truth, the NDC has a zero chance of winning the presidency in 2024 with Mahama/Naana Jane Opoku-Agyemang ticket.
The electoral math is not in favor of the same old 2020 ticket – In fact, the evidence is there to read – Both the data and the analysis doesn’t favour that ticket.
If anyone is in doubt, they should check the 2020 Presidential vis-à-vis the Parliamentary results – the NDC lost so many seats with very small margins and those candidates still outperformed Mahama/Jane Opoku-Agyemang ticket. On the other hand, NDC parliamentary candidates won and still outperformed Mahama in Adenta, Agona East, Akwatia, Assin North, Ayensuano, Ewutu Senya West, Jomoro, Nkoranza South, Jaman South, Wenchi, Upper Denkyira West, Cape Coast North, Asikuma Odoben Brakwa, Gomoa West, Okaikwei North and several other constituencies.
Again, take the central region for instance, the home region of the NDC running mate, the party was outperformed so badly at the presidential level – President Akufo-Addo won 19 constituencies out of 23, leaving 4 for John Mahama. At the parliamentary level, the NDC won 13 constituencies as against 10 for the NPP.
The broader question, frankly, is what accounted for the NDC losing 19 constituencies (Presidential) in the central region with Naana Jane Opoku-Agyemang, an indigene on the ticket? And why did the parliamentary candidates outperformed Mahama?
Well, the hard fact here is that even those Ghanaians who were obviously dissatisfied with Nana Akufo-Addo didn’t see John Mahama/Jane Opoku-Agyemang ticket as the alternative.
Respectfully, it is for this reason why the NDC needs to look forward, and do things that would give hope and be universally appealing to all of the electorate.
To put it bluntly, the NDC needs to break the back of the elephant in its own backyard – Yes, the NDC must necessarily have an Ashanti on the ticket. The party desperately needs to do this to have a fighting chance in 2024.
Far too many people who should know better are still going through the motions of paying respect to the status quo that Ghanaians have roundly rejected consecutively. And others aren’t interested in reasoned argument or facts – Like the proverbial ostrich, they would rather bury their heads in the sand while reality continue to batter them in ways they’ve never envisaged.
The truth is NDC in recent times has done way below average in the Ashanti Region – The party’s votes dwindled from 32.87% in 1992 to 26.08% in 2020.
As a matter of fact, on a good day, the NPP votes in the Ashanti region alone can wipe out all of NDC’s gains in its traditional strongholds – Volta, Northern, Savanna, Upper East and Upper West Regions.
It should be pointed out that apart from Rawlings who pulled little over 32% in 1992 and 1996, no other NDC presidential candidate has crossed the 30% mark in the Ashanti Region. And we know too well that Rawlings had a very prominent Ashantis in his corner – Nana Konadu Agyeman-Rawlings, P.V. Obeng, Daniel Ohene Agyekum, Nana Akwasi Agyeman and Nana Akuaku Sarpong readily comes to mind. So yes, we can all conclude here that when the NDC had prominent Ashantis in the frontline with Rawlings, the party did well in the Ashanti Region. That’s why it is important for the NDC to take a cold, clear-eyed look at its failings in 2016 and 2020, and then look over the voter demographics, and renew itself. The party needs to rethink its outreach and, to an extent, bring in a softer, more approachable face, hopefully an Ashanti, to partner Mahama in order to appeal to a fast-changing and steadily slipping away electorate.
We cannot wait before taking the bold action that is necessary. In my view, it makes a lot more sense to prevent the collapse of the party than figuring out how we put it back together after it crumbles. Simply stated, that means that everything ought to be done to keep the party in one piece. It also means that we must start demanding that the party embrace ideas that are wildly popular among the Ghanaian electorates.
Respectfully, while we’re at it, let’s also discard the puerile and self-serving argument that dropping Nana Jane Opoku-Agyemang will be seen as having been used and dumped. This argument ought to be discarded because there are precedents. The dropping of vice presidential candidates started with Martin Amidu and to Muhammed Mumuni, and in actual fact, John Mahama was a beneficiary of that changing political dynamics.
Let me also add that there’s no sense in the argument that a Running-mate who is seen as a likely successor places all those with post-John Mahama presidential ambition at a disadvantage.
And let’s be clear here, the argument that there’s the need for a clean slate in the search for a new leader, and therefore, Nana Jane serves that purpose is the most selfish and reckless path that must not be countenanced.
Respectfully, let no one attempt to play the gender card here. Naana Jane Opoku-Agyemang’s gender didn’t play any role in 2020. Indeed the the gender advocates did nothing to support the NDC ticket in 2020 even though the party recognised the role of womenfolk on the 2020 ticket.
It is time to start looking past our own preconceptions and start thinking about the collective interest of the NDC. And while it may be fashionable in the media to trot out more excuses for Naana Jane Opoku Agyemang, perhaps party folks should be brave enough to look at their role in creating the conditions for the scary future that a lot of us are foreseeing.
Surely, 2024 will be quite an election. The leadership of the NDC needs to position the party for the fight to come.
We hope every elder of the NDC understands the task ahead of us all.
May all manner of things be made right. May we see the dawn of a new era in the NDC.
Wakefield Ackuaku
For And On Behalf Of The Progressives Movement
The Progressive Movement is a Research and Advocacy group committed to advancing NDC’s social democratic values and principles.
