Renowned Ghanaian pollster, Ben Ephson

Pollster Ben Ephson has expressed his support for Charles Opoku, the New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) candidate in the Assin North bye-election, predicting that Mr Opoku will prevail over James Gyakye Quayson of the National Democratic Congress.

Mr Ephson, in an interview with Joy News, stated that while the election is closely contested, the factors favour the New Patriotic Party.

Mr. Ephson based his prediction on the premise that Mr Quayson won the 2020 elections largely due to his association with Assin Bereku, his place of origin, which holds the largest number of voters within the constituency.

However, this advantage is now diminished as Mr Opoku, the NPP candidate, also hails from the same town.

Furthermore, Mr Ephson argued that the NDC’s campaign relying on “sympathy votes” has suffered a setback due to the Accra High Court’s decision to allow Mr Quayson to continue campaigning while his criminal trial is ongoing.

The court’s ruling has affected the potential influence of the sympathy votes campaign, thereby reducing Mr Quayson’s chances.

Regarding Mr Opoku’s prospects, Mr Ephson highlighted the candidate’s preparation for politics over the past few years, including his involvement in an NGO that has engaged in various activities.

This preparation gives Mr Opoku an advantage in the bye-election. Mr Ephson recommended putting one’s bet on the NPP candidate, though the outcome is too close to call.

The pollster also mentioned that in the previous election, MrQuayson hailed from Assin Bereku while his opponent was from another area.

The female candidate faced issues with some NPP executives at Assin Bereku, resulting in her exclusion this time.

With both candidates originating from Assin Bereku and the popular female candidate campaigning for the NPP in another town, the NPP candidate has gained additional support. Mr Ephson also noted Mr Opoku’s philanthropic works at Assin North, further boosting his prospects.

The Assin North bye-election is seen as a mid-term election to gauge the popularity of the two main political parties ahead of the 2024 elections.