Ghana’s public debt stock could see a significant reduction of approximately 10% following the rapid appreciation of the cedi, according to fresh estimates by JoyNews Research.
Since the start of 2025, the Ghanaian cedi has surged in value, gaining about 18% against the US dollar, making it the fastest-appreciating currency globally since April 2025, according to Bloomberg.
An analysis by JoyNews Research shows this rally is expected to ease the country’s external debt burden, resulting in a 10% decline in the current GHS726.7 billion debt stock.
“The current appreciation of the cedi is expected to reduce the external component of Ghana’s debt stock by some GHS74 billion, which could translate into an overall debt reduction of about 10%,” explained Isaac Kofi Agyei, Lead Analyst at JoyNews.
This development marks a reversal of previous trends. In 2022, the cedi’s sharp depreciation added GHS93 billion to the national debt.
“For us at the Ministry of Finance, the depreciation of the cedi seriously affects our ability to effectively manage our debt. Indeed, our stock of debt increased by GHS93 billion this year alone due to the depreciation of the cedi since the beginning of 2022,” former Finance Minister Ken Ofori-Atta revealed while presenting the 2023 budget to Parliament in November 2023.
Several domestic and global factors have combined to support the cedi’s recent performance.
On the international front, the weakening dominance of the US dollar—especially among BRICS nations and some African economies—has contributed to this shift. Countries are increasingly turning to alternative currencies for oil, commodities, and intra-regional trade, partly in response to protectionist policies and tariffs introduced during the Trump administration era.
This global trade realignment and gradual de-dollarization are providing emerging market currencies like the cedi with much-needed breathing room.
Domestically, the Bank of Ghana has been proactive, strategically injecting dollars into the market, particularly through foreign exchange support to Bulk Oil Distributors (BDCs), to ease pressure from petroleum imports.
Unlike previous election-year trends, the current administration has avoided excessive fiscal spending during its first months in office. This fiscal restraint has helped curb cedi liquidity, dampening inflationary pressures and stabilizing foreign exchange demand.
Additionally, Ghana’s $3 billion IMF programme has played a vital role in restoring investor confidence. The programme’s strict conditions—including fiscal discipline and structural reforms—have reassured markets about the country’s economic trajectory.
Ghana’s gross international reserves have also seen a remarkable increase, rising from $6.1 billion in early 2024 to over $9.3 billion by the second month of 2025. This boost has strengthened the central bank’s capacity to defend the cedi and deter speculative attacks.
Despite declining oil revenues, gold exports surged to $2.3 billion in the first two months of 2025, up from $1.4 billion during the same period in 2024. Similarly, cocoa export earnings more than doubled, rising from $369 million to $836 million between February 2024 and February 2025.
Under the IMF programme, Ghana has also secured debt moratoriums and haircuts, significantly reducing both domestic and external debt servicing costs. These measures, combined with the cedi’s appreciation, are expected to create more fiscal space ahead of the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting scheduled for tomorrow.
The MPC’s decision will be closely watched as it responds to these positive macroeconomic trends, which analysts believe could influence interest rate direction and inflation expectations for the second half of 2025.