Ghanaian motorists and businesses have been urged to brace for continued fuel price volatility, following a warning from energy sector civil society group SEMPA Africa that a key global buffer against oil supply shocks has shrunk to its weakest point in over 40 years.
The warning centres on the United States Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which Sustainable Energy and Mines Projects Advocacy (SEMPA Africa) says has been drawn down significantly and now offers far less cushioning capacity should another disruption hit global oil markets.
Although Ghana does not draw fuel directly from the US stockpile, SEMPA said the reserve functions as part of a wider global buffer, and its depletion raises the risk premium built into international crude and refined product prices, a premium that filters through quickly to local pumps.
“Because domestic petroleum prices broadly track international benchmarks, that premium reaches Ghana quickly,” the group said in a statement issued on August 24.
SEMPA said the country’s heavy reliance on imported fuel leaves it particularly exposed. Citing recent industry estimates, it noted that about seven out of every 10 litres sold at the pump in Ghana are imported, meaning swings in international prices are quickly felt by consumers.
Providing context for the warning, SEMPA cited US Energy Information Administration data showing the Strategic Petroleum Reserve held about 293 million barrels of crude oil in the week ending August 14, 2026, roughly 41 percent of its authorised 714-million-barrel capacity and the lowest level since December 1982.
The organisation traced the decline to a release of 172 million barrels from the reserve in March, after Iran moved to restrict tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and disrupted a major global supply route. That release formed part of a wider intervention coordinated by the International Energy Agency among member countries.
SEMPA stressed that the shrinking US reserve does not guarantee an immediate spike in Ghanaian fuel prices, but warned it leaves markets with far less room to absorb any fresh shock without a significant price jump. It called on consumers, transport operators and businesses to prepare accordingly.
The group also urged government to treat the development as an early warning, pressing for measures such as maintaining cedi stability and fiscal discipline, expanding domestic refining capacity and strengthening Ghana’s own strategic fuel reserves.
“The US reserve drawdown has barely registered in local conversation, but it is exactly the kind of external development that ends up at the fuel pump in Accra and Kumasi within weeks,” SEMPA said.
“Ghana cannot control America’s emergency stockpile. What we can control is how prepared our own pricing system and reserves are for the volatility this signal is coming.”
