Market data and price quotes from several commercial banks show that the cedi depreciated by 1.86% in July, after appreciating by 3.30% against the dollar in June.

The June gain was largely attributed to increased foreign exchange support from the Bank of Ghana, which injected $2.01 billion into the market to meet demand and support stability.

However, the pressure returned in July, driven largely by increased demand for dollars to finance energy imports.

The situation has persisted into August. Market data show the cedi has recorded week-to-date and month-to-date depreciations of 0.52% and 1.66%, respectively. On a year-to-date basis, the cedi has depreciated by 8.06%.

Christmas Imports Add to Dollar Demand

The latest pressure is being linked to increased demand for dollars by businesses preparing for the December Christmas shopping season.

Market watchers have told JOYBUSINESS that the demand could remain elevated as businesses increase imports ahead of the festive season.

The pressure has also been compounded by crude oil prices and their impact on the amount of foreign exchange required to finance energy imports.

BoG Expects Cedi to Stabilise

The Bank of Ghana, however, has described the latest movements as normal market developments and maintains that the cedi is expected to remain relatively stable for the rest of 2026.

In its July Monetary Policy Report, the central bank said renewed foreign exchange demand ahead of the Christmas season could create pressure but expressed confidence in its ability to manage the situation.

“Over the medium term, the Ghana cedi is expected to remain relatively stable,” the Bank stated.

It added that foreign exchange interventions and remittance inflows would help ease pressure on the currency.

“FX intermediation is expected to moderate the pressures on the cedi, along with remittance flows,” it added.

The Bank of Ghana is expected to supply about US$500 million to the market in September through its foreign exchange intermediation programme.

The Ghana Gold Board is also expected to provide additional support, targeting US$1.4 billion in foreign exchange receipts during the month.

Of this amount, US$700 million is expected to be made available to commercial banks through spot sales and funded forward arrangements.

The remaining US$700 million is expected to be provided to the Bank of Ghana for reserve accumulation under the Ghana Accelerated National Reserve Accumulation Policy (GANRAP).

The central bank has also assured the market that it remains prepared to intervene when necessary to maintain orderly market conditions while allowing the exchange rate to remain flexible.

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In its latest Monetary Report, the central bank said it expects the local currency to remain stable over the medium term.

“Over the medium term, the Ghana cedi is expected to remain relatively stable,” the Bank stated.

It said foreign exchange interventions and remittance inflows would help ease pressure on the currency.

“FX intermediation is expected to moderate the pressures on the cedi, along with remittance flows,” it added.

The outlook comes amid renewed demand for dollars from businesses seeking to finance imports ahead of the December festivities.

Cedi outlook

The Bank of Ghana believes the cedi has recovered from the pressure it faced earlier in May.

Market supply is also expected to improve in the coming months.

The central bank is expected to supply about US$500 million to the market in September through its foreign exchange intermediation programme.

The Ghana Gold Board is expected to provide additional support.

GoldBod is targeting US$1.4 billion in foreign exchange receipts in September as part of efforts to support market stability and build reserves.

Of this, US$700 million is expected to be made available to commercial banks through spot sales and funded forward arrangements.

Another US$700 million will be provided to the Bank of Ghana for reserve accumulation under the Ghana Accelerated National Reserve Accumulation Policy (GANRAP).

The Bank has also assured the market that it remains prepared to intervene when necessary to ensure orderly market conditions while preserving exchange rate flexibility.

Cedi performance

Despite the improved outlook, the cedi recorded significant losses during the first half of 2026.

On the interbank market, the currency depreciated by 7.9% against the US dollar, 6.5% against the pound and 5.3% against the euro on a year-to-date basis.

This contrasts sharply with the same period in 2025, when the cedi appreciated by 42.6% against the dollar, 30.3% against the pound and 25.6% against the euro.

The Bank of Ghana attributed the pressure earlier in the year partly to higher energy-related imports.

The cedi had depreciated by a cumulative 9.5% against the dollar as of July 17, 2026.

However, the central bank said the currency was less volatile during the first 140 trading days of 2026 than in the corresponding periods of the previous four years.

According to the latest figures, the cedi recorded a cumulative depreciation of 7.11% at the end of August.

Despite the losses, the Bank of Ghana maintains that increased foreign exchange supply and remittance flows should help moderate pressure on the currency in the months ahead.

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His warning follows a sharp turnaround in the financial performance of SOEs in 2025.

According to the State Interests and Governance Authority’s (SIGA) 2025 State Ownership Report, SOEs recorded a consolidated net profit after tax of GH¢19.80 billion, reversing a GH¢2.25 billion loss in 2024. Revenue also rose from GH¢137.64 billion to GH¢176.43 billion.  

However, Dr Atuahene says the figures should be examined more closely before being interpreted as evidence of significant operational efficiency.

“As Professor Isaac Boadi of UPSA said, I look at it, and he called it a miracle. But if you dive deep into it, it’s not operational efficiency. It’s completely, it’s not operational efficiency.”

He said a major factor behind the improved results was foreign exchange gains.

“If you are moved by foreign exchange gains by 60%, then you are not talking about efficiency. So, for me, it’s not so much the profit, but are we talking about operational efficiency?”

Dr Atuahene warned that the gains could quickly be reversed if the cedi loses its current stability.

“Because other than that, when the reality comes, you’re going to have a hit. When I mean the reality, should the cedi begin to go downwards, then you’ll begin to see that we have a big problem.”

The SIGA report indicates that the performance of the cedi helped reduce SOEs’ finance costs by 42.49 per cent.

The entities also recorded net foreign exchange earnings of GH¢11.72 billion in 2025, compared with a foreign exchange loss of GH¢12.01 billion in 2024.  

Dr Atuahene also raised concerns about the scale of debt accumulated by state enterprises.

“And also, the magnitude of the debt, 282 billion. If you run an economy with such a debt overhang, I don’t know what you can do.”

He noted that SOE liabilities accounted for about GH¢282 billion of the wider debt burden.

“Debt overhang of over ¢700 billion; ¢ 282 billion is by the state enterprises. That is where we should have a little bit of concern and worry.”

The SIGA report puts total SOE liabilities at GH¢281.99 billion, with ECG alone accounting for GH¢82.31 billion.  

Dr Atuahene said the government must therefore treat SOE reforms as a priority, particularly under the IMF programme.

“That is the reason why, in the IMF’s PCI, one of the ten fundamental reforms that we are being required to do is to look at these SOEs, which is very, very important.”

He warned that the underlying problems in state enterprises could eventually pose a wider threat to the economy.

“If we go the way we are going with SOEs, one day we will get up, and the country will come to a grinding halt.”

He questioned whether profitability should be measured solely by financial statements, given that some enterprises continue to struggle to deliver basic public services.

“Produce the figures, talk about profit, but the reality, like Professor said, what is the output? You’re not getting your light on. You’re not getting your water.”

“Are we measuring it by what measure? What metrics are we using?”

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The report said the local currency also declined by 6.5 per cent against the British pound and 5.3 per cent against the euro on a year-to-date basis as of June 2026.

The Central Bank said the performance of the cedi reflected renewed pressures in the domestic foreign exchange market despite a weaker US dollar on the international market.

“On the interbank market, the cedi depreciated by 7.9 per cent, 6.5 per cent and 5.3 per cent against the dollar, pound and euro, respectively, on a year-to-date basis,” the report stated.

It noted that the development contrasted sharply with the corresponding period in 2025, when the cedi recorded appreciations of 42.6 per cent against the dollar, 30.3 per cent against the pound and 25.6 per cent against the euro.

The report explained that while the US dollar entered July on a weaker footing globally due to expectations surrounding economic data, the response of emerging market currencies varied because of country-specific vulnerabilities.

The report indicated that the cedi came under intense pressure in May 2026 but subsequently recovered, helping to moderate the extent of losses recorded earlier in the year.

The Bank of Ghana, however, expressed optimism about the medium-term outlook for the local currency, citing expected support from remittance inflows and easing pressures in the foreign exchange market.

“Over the medium term, the Ghana cedi is expected to remain relatively stable as foreign exchange demand from financial intermediation moderates the pressures on the cedi, along with remittance flows,” it said.

The Central Bank further observed that despite the depreciation, the cedi exhibited lower volatility during the first 140 transaction days of 2026 compared with the same period in previous years.

On a trade-weighted basis, the cedi depreciated by 6.1 per cent in nominal trade-weighted terms and by 8.3 per cent in nominal foreign exchange transaction-weighted terms during the review period.

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The development represents an appreciation of about 6.9 per cent against the dollar within seven days.

Bank of Ghana data showed that the dollar’s interbank buying rate initially rose marginally to GHS11.7641 on August 11 before declining to GHS11.73 on August 12.

The cedi then strengthened further, with the dollar’s buying rate falling to GHS11.34 on August 13 and GHS10.97 on August 14.

By August 17, the first trading day after the weekend, the rate had declined further to GHS10.94, its lowest level during the period under review.

The dollar’s interbank selling rate followed a similar trend, falling from GHS11.77 on August 10 to GHS10.96 on August 17.

The cedi also appreciated against other major international currencies during the period.

The pound sterling’s interbank buying rate fell from GHS15.86 on August 10 to GHS14.83 on August 17, while the euro declined from GHS13.59 to GHS12.67.

The data further showed relatively narrow buying and selling spreads across the major currencies, pointing to stable conditions in the interbank foreign exchange market.

The latest figures underscore the cedi’s broad-based appreciation against the dollar, pound sterling and euro during the week under review.

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According to the President, currencies must be periodically updated to make it more difficult for criminals to reproduce them. He, however, stressed that the authority to redesign or replace the cedi rests with the Bank of Ghana.

“Every country, every ten years, you are supposed to refresh your currency because if you use the same currency for too long, people learn how to counterfeit it,” President Mahama said during the Resetting Ghana Tour in the Upper East Region.

He explained that security features on banknotes must be updated from time to time to keep pace with increasingly sophisticated counterfeiting techniques.

“And so this particular currency is long overdue for refreshing,” he said.

President Mahama disclosed that he is aware of plans by the Governor of the Bank of Ghana to refresh the currency, adding that the central bank would announce the details to the public at the appropriate time.

“I know the governor has plans to refresh the currency and I am sure that at the appropriate time, the Bank of Ghana will let Ghanaians know what they are doing about it,” he said.

Currency refresh not a redenomination

A currency refresh would primarily involve updating the security features of Ghana’s banknotes to make counterfeiting more difficult.

It would not, by itself, alter the value of the cedi or amount to a redenomination.

For consumers and businesses, the immediate benefit would be stronger protection against counterfeit notes and greater confidence in the security of cash transactions.

President Mahama, however, cautioned against confusing the physical appearance or security of the currency with its underlying economic strength.

He maintained that the value and performance of the cedi are ultimately influenced by the management of the wider economy.

“What I would say is that the cedi today is stronger than it was in the past because of good economic management,” he said.

The President pointed to the government’s economic policies as a key factor behind the cedi’s recent performance against major international currencies.

“Your currency is as strong as your economic management and because of the good policies we put in place, the cedi is holding its own against other major currencies,” the President added.

Bank of Ghana to determine timing

While a currency refresh could help Ghana stay ahead of increasingly sophisticated counterfeiting methods, it would not, on its own, strengthen the cedi.

The broader performance of the currency will continue to depend on key economic fundamentals, including inflation, foreign exchange supply, fiscal management and monetary policy.

For now, the timing and scope of any currency refresh remain with the Bank of Ghana.

President Mahama said the government would continue implementing policies aimed at supporting the strength of the cedi, while the central bank determines when and how the currency should be refreshed.

“We will continue to make sure that the economy bolsters the strength of the cedi. But, like I said, at the appropriate time, the Governor will apprise us of any plans that he has for replacing the currency,” he said.

Data from JOYBUSINESS on the foreign exchange market shows a significant improvement in the local currency’s value.

Some commercial banks were quoting the dollar at about GH¢11.30 on indicative rates, while Bloomberg showed about GH¢10.96. The Bank of Ghana was quoting the dollar at GH¢10.98.

The latest rates represent a sharp improvement from earlier this month, when some commercial banks were selling the dollar for more than GH¢12.

The recovery follows sustained pressure on the cedi from last month into early August.

Reasons for the recovery

JOYBUSINESS understands that the recent gains have been supported by improved Bank of Ghana interventions, inflows from the extractive sector and offshore investors seeking to purchase local bonds.

Market players have also pointed to easing demand for dollars from businesses.

For instance, on Tuesday, August 11, the Bank of Ghana offered US$125 million to commercial banks through an auction. However, bids received totalled only US$85 million.

A similar trend was recorded on Thursday, August 13. The central bank offered another US$125 million, but commercial banks bid for only US$94 million.

The development suggests that demand for foreign exchange may be easing.

It remains unclear whether recent regulatory measures affecting the dollar holdings of commercial banks have also contributed to the improved market conditions.

Outlook

Some banks engaged by JOYBUSINESS expect the cedi’s recent gains to continue in the coming weeks.

They cite improved foreign exchange inflows and easing demand from businesses as key factors.

Donor inflows have also supported the market, with additional inflows expected in the coming weeks. These could further strengthen Ghana’s reserves.

The Bank of Ghana has told JOYBUSINESS that the recent recovery is in line with its Exchange Rate Management Framework.

Sources close to the central bank also expect the cedi to strengthen further this week.

The Bank of Ghana has assured businesses that there is no need to panic whenever the cedi comes under temporary pressure. It has pointed to the country’s strong reserve position as evidence of its ability to intervene and support the foreign exchange market.

Ghana’s reserves stood at US$12.9 billion at the end of June.

BoG market support tops US$8 billion

Recent market data and JOYBUSINESS calculations show that the Bank of Ghana has sold more than US$8 billion into the foreign exchange market between January and July 2026 to improve liquidity, meet demand and support the cedi.

The central bank sold about US$7.45 billion through its FX Intermediation Programme between January and July.

It also deployed about US$811 million through its FX Intervention Programme between January and June.

This brings total market support to more than US$8.2 billion so far this year.

The figure could approach US$9.2 billion by the end of August if the Bank proceeds with plans to sell up to US$1 billion through its FX Intermediation Programme this month.

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The rates, which are based on the average interbank rates used by commercial banks at the close of business on Thursday, August 13, are as follows:

• US Dollar: Buying – GH¢10.9745 | Selling – GH¢10.9855
• British Pound: Buying – GH¢14.8101 | Selling – GH¢14.8260
• Euro: Buying – GH¢12.6550 | Selling – GH¢12.6664

The Bank of Ghana publishes the rates to reflect the average interbank exchange rates applicable to transactions by commercial banks.

This took its year-to-date loss to 10.4% in the interbank market.

According to market analysts, the foreign exchange demand rebounded in July 2026 after June’s retreat, partly due to energy and other imports.

With Eurobond payment (US$700 million) and June’s US$811 million forex intervention trimming gross foreign reserves by US$1.2bn to USD$12.9bn, IC Insights expects the Bank of Ghana to continue its regular intermediation albeit with constrained intervention capacity.

This will leave the cedi to a slight downside risk in August 2026.

Meanwhile, the cedi is going for about GH¢12.42 in the retail market. In the interbank market, it is trading at GH¢

According to the Bank of Ghana, the cedi depreciated by approximately 8.4% against the US dollar in the interbank market in the first five months of 2026.

The poor performance has been due to sustained import demand and cautious forex supply conditions, with sentiment influenced by recent financial position concerns of the Bank of Ghana.

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Data compiled by Joy Business from the Bank’s FX auction calendars and market communications show that the central bank sold about US$7.45 billion through its FX Intermediation Programme between January and July 2026.

The Bank also deployed about US$811 million through its FX Intervention Programme between January and June.

This takes the total market support to more than US$8.2 billion so far this year.

The figure could approach US$9.2 billion by the end of August if the Bank proceeds with plans to sell up to US$1 billion through its FX Intermediation Programme during the month.

The development comes as the cedi faces renewed pressure against the US dollar. The Bank of Ghana has put the cedi’s depreciation at 10.61% as of the end of July.

The FX Intermediation Programme is designed to improve liquidity and help reduce excessive volatility in the foreign exchange market when necessary.

It is particularly linked to activities under the Domestic Gold Purchase Programme.

Some market participants have argued that the cedi could have come under even greater pressure without the Bank’s interventions.

Data gathered by Joy Business from some commercial banks also indicate that demand for dollars from businesses has remained strong.

Some market participants have attributed the pressure to increased foreign exchange needs from energy sector players financing crude oil imports, finished petroleum products and payments to power producers.

Others have linked the pressure to limited dollar supply relative to demand from businesses.

Recent Bank of Ghana data indicate that Ghana’s international reserves have declined to a little over US$12 billion.

Despite the pressure, the central bank has maintained that businesses should not panic, describing the recent movements as temporary market pressures.

The Bank has also indicated that it remains capable of supporting the foreign exchange market when necessary and ensuring that critical imports are not disrupted.

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Information gathered by JOYBUSINESS indicates that the planned auctions will be conducted under the Bank of Ghana’s Foreign Exchange Operations Framework.

The central bank has informed market participants that the move forms part of measures to operationalise the FX Operations Framework and will support the objectives of its reserve accumulation programme.

The FX Intermediation Programme, according to the Bank of Ghana, is designed to help reduce excessive volatility in the foreign exchange market when necessary, particularly through activities linked to the Domestic Gold Purchase Programme.

JOYBUSINESS understands that the dollar auctions will be conducted every two weeks and will be open to licensed commercial banks.

Cedi faces renewed pressure

The latest move comes as the Ghana cedi experiences fresh depreciation pressures, with demand for foreign exchange currently exceeding supply in parts of the market.

Data reported by JOYBUSINESS from some commercial banks suggest that businesses have been demanding more dollars than the market has been able to provide.

Some market participants have attributed the pressure to increased foreign exchange needs from energy sector players financing crude oil imports, finished petroleum products and payments to power producers.

Others believe the challenge is linked to a limited supply of dollars relative to business demand.

Recent Bank of Ghana data indicate that the country’s international reserves have declined to a little over $12 billion.

However, the central bank has maintained that businesses should not panic, describing the recent pressure as temporary market movements.

Officials have insisted that the Bank remains capable of supporting the market when necessary and ensuring that critical imports are not affected.

July FX support

The planned August auction follows the Bank of Ghana’s FX support programme in July 2026.

The central bank told commercial banks that the July operations were conducted in a “market neutral manner” on a spot basis through twice-weekly open auctions accessible to all licensed commercial banks.

The Bank of Ghana also disclosed that as of the end of July 2026, the cedi had cumulatively depreciated by 10.61%.

During the same period, average daily trading volume in the interbank market stood at $22.64 million, contributing to a total monthly interbank volume of $498 million.

The central bank has reiterated its commitment to transparency, saying it will continue to disclose relevant information on its foreign exchange market operations, including activities under the FX Intermediation Programme.

The Bank has also maintained that there was no direct market intervention in July 2026.

History of FX Intermediation Programme

The Bank of Ghana began its revised FX Intermediation Programme in September 2025, with an initial $1.1 billion auction.

The amount increased to $1.3 billion in October 2025, while in November 2025, the central bank announced a $1 billion target and sold the full amount.

For December 2025, the target was reduced to $800 million.

The auctions have continued on a spot basis through twice-weekly, price-competitive sales open to all licensed banks.

Market watchers have linked the programme to the cedi’s strong performance in 2025.

In June 2026, the Bank of Ghana injected $2.01 billion into the foreign exchange market to meet demand and support the local currency.

JOYBUSINESS reported that $1.2 billion of that amount was sold through the Forex Intermediation Programme, while commercial banks submitted bids totalling $3.42 billion, reflecting strong demand for foreign exchange.

The amount was reduced to $1 billion in July and remains at the same level for August 2026.

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The Bank of Ghana (BoG) interbank exchange rate data showed all three major currencies appreciated against the cedi between July 27 and July 31.

The US dollar buying rate rose to GHc11.6801 on July 31 from GHc11.6292 on July 27, while the selling rate increased to GHc 11.6917 from GHc 11.6408.

Based on the buying rate, the cedi depreciated by about 0.44 per cent against the dollar over the period.

The euro recorded the strongest weekly gain.

Its buying rate climbed to GHc13.45 on July 31 from GHc13.24 at the start of the week, while the selling rate rose to GHc 13.48 from GHS 13.25.

The cedi consequently lost about 1.7 per cent against the single European currency.

The British pound also strengthened against the cedi.

The buying rate increased to GHc 15.73 on July 31 from GHc 15.5180 on July 27, while the selling rate rose to GHc 15.74 from GHc 15.53.

The cedi depreciated by about 1.38 per cent against the pound during the week.

The dollar recorded steady gains throughout the period, while the euro and the pound registered sharper increases toward the end of the week.

On July 31, the euro buying rate rose to GHc 13.45 from GHc 13.26 the previous day, while the pound buying rate increased to GHc 15.73 from GHc 15.48.

By the close of trading on July 31, the pound remained the highest-valued of the three currencies, with a selling rate of GHc 15.74, followed by the euro at GHc 13.48 and the US dollar at GHc 11.6917.

Overall, the cedi recorded its steepest weekly depreciation against the euro, followed by the pound, while its decline against the US dollar was comparatively modest.

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In a public notice, the central bank said it had observed the “widespread and persistent refusal” by some individuals and businesses to accept 1, 5, 10, 20 and 50 pesewa coins, as well as GH¢1 and GH¢2 coins.

According to the BoG, all coins issued by the Bank remain legal tender and must be accepted for the settlement of debts and transactions across the country.

It stressed that no trader, transport operator, business entity or individual has the discretion to reject the coins on grounds of inconvenience, low value or personal preference.

The Bank explained that under the Currency Act, 1964 (Act 242), refusing to sell goods or services because a customer is paying with legal tender coins or notes constitutes an offence, unless the currency has been demonetised or withdrawn from circulation.

It noted that offenders, upon conviction, could face imprisonment of up to three years, a fine, or both.

The BoG further warned that anyone who encourages or instructs others to reject coins — including business owners who direct their staff to refuse them — commits the same offence and is liable to the same penalties.

It added that persons caught committing the offence may be arrested without a warrant.

The central bank urged the public to stop rejecting cedi coins, warning that persistent offenders risk arrest, prosecution, fines or imprisonment.

It said it would collaborate with the Ghana Police Service and other law enforcement agencies to ensure compliance with the law.

The BoG also encouraged members of the public to report incidents of coin rejection to the nearest Bank of Ghana office, the Ghana Police Service, or through the Bank’s official communication channels.

The Bank called on all individuals, businesses and institutions to accept and handle Ghana’s currency in all its denominations responsibly and in accordance with the law.

Data gathered by JOYBUSINESS from some major commercial banks shows sustained pressure on the cedi over the past two weeks, with businesses seeking more dollars than the market has been able to provide.

Some market players have linked the pressure to increased demand from energy sector players seeking foreign exchange to finance crude oil imports, finished petroleum products and payments to power producers.

Others believe the challenge is largely due to inadequate dollar supply to match demand from businesses.

One market player told JOYBUSINESS: “We don’t think that anything has changed.”

Market Data and Developments

There are also indications that some businesses are taking positions to protect their investments amid concerns that tensions in the Middle East could trigger further pressure on the local currency.

Checks by JOYBUSINESS show that the Bank of Ghana increased its weekly foreign exchange auction to $220 million last week.

However, demand remained stronger than supply, with about $201 million in bids left unmet at Thursday’s spot auction.

The cedi depreciated by 0.60% during the week, pushing its month-to-date depreciation to 1.86%. From January to date, the local currency’s depreciation has worsened to 8.89%.

The latest development comes after the cedi recorded its first monthly appreciation of 2026 in June, gaining 3.30% against the US dollar.

The June appreciation was largely attributed to increased support from the Bank of Ghana, which injected $2.01 billion into the foreign exchange market to meet demand and support stability.

The central bank sold $1.2 billion through its Forex Intermediation Programme, with auctions conducted twice weekly throughout the month.

Although the amount was in line with the Bank’s monthly target, commercial banks submitted bids totalling $3.42 billion, highlighting strong demand for foreign exchange.

BoG Assurance

The Bank of Ghana has maintained that there is no need for businesses to panic, describing the recent pressure as temporary market movements.

Officials of the central bank have insisted that it remains in a strong position to support the market when necessary and ensure that critical imports are not affected.

Recent data from the Bank of Ghana shows that Ghana’s international reserves have crossed $14 billion.

The central bank is also counting on improved foreign exchange inflows in the coming months, including stronger remittance flows and support from development partners.

It expects inflows from the IMF programme, including about $380 million in programme support and a further $240 million expected in July 2026, to strengthen reserves.

The Bank is also optimistic that improved investor confidence following Ghana’s Fitch upgrade and the government’s early Eurobond repayment decision could support the economy.

However, it has warned that risks remain, particularly uncertainties surrounding the Middle East peace process, which could affect global crude oil prices and increase dollar demand.

The Bank of Ghana says it will continue to monitor developments and introduce measures to maintain stability in the foreign exchange market.

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Speaking on Joy News’ PM Express Business Edition on Thursday, Prof. Turkson said Ghana must seize the current period of economic stability to undertake long-term structural reforms instead of waiting for another crisis.

“We are enjoying stability, and we need to build resilience. Resilience will come with a structural change,” he said.

The economist said one of the most significant developments was TOR’s return to refining locally produced crude oil.

“I was excited to see that TOR has received some oil from our Jubilee fields to refine. That is a structural change. That is a change that is going to allow us to reduce our import of refined oil. That change will put less burden on the cedi.”

According to him, a stronger cedi would have ripple effects across the economy.

“And if the cedi is relatively stable, inflation is low, the monetary policy rate is low, and interest rates are declining. That is a sort of environment that will allow businesses to expand.”

Prof. Turkson said Ghana remains exposed to external events beyond its control and therefore needs to redesign its economy to withstand global disruptions.

“A lot of things are happening in the geopolitical external environment that have nothing to do with Ghana, but have significant implications for the Ghanaian economy. And so we need to begin to put in place policies that will structure our Ghanaian economy.”

“It is the change in the structure of the economy that will enable us to withstand some of these external shocks.”

He disagreed with suggestions that government should delay major reforms until economic conditions improve further.

“So I do not entirely agree with Dalex Finance CEO, Joe Jackson, that we should think about stabilising and hold on a bit.”

“I’ve said it, that the current government has the platform, and the environment to make those structural changes. The coming on board of TOR and refining of oil is one of them.”

Prof. Turkson also identified affordable electricity as another critical ingredient for industrial growth, warning that high energy costs make local manufacturers less competitive and increase dependence on imports.

“When it is because of coal, they are not competitive, and they wind up. It is going to increase the pressure on the cedi because we need to import what they produce.”

He insisted the time to implement reforms is now.

“It is now. It is not wait. This is a good time to do the resilience.”

He said stronger reserve levels, improved fiscal management, and lower public debt have created the ideal conditions for the government to invest in roads, railways, and other infrastructure to expand production and reduce business costs.

“If we begin to reduce our reliance on imports, it’s a fundamental change that we need, and the import substitutes that we begin to produce would enable us to even begin to look at the West African market.”

Prof. Turkson pointed to local manufacturers already exporting quality products as evidence that Ghana can transform its economy through industrialisation.

“I’m excited that a company is done and is producing quality cows that are being exported out of them. This is the sort of transformation we need in the manufacturing sector.”

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The Central Bank says the gains have been supported by measures including its Forex Intermediation and FX Intervention programmes, which have helped improve dollar supply and reduce pressure on the local currency.

The cedi recorded its first monthly appreciation of more than 3% in June 2026, according to the Bank of Ghana’s latest Monetary Policy Analysis data seen by JOYBUSINESS.

The Bank is projecting further stability, partly due to its plan to supply about US$1 billion to the market through its Forex Intermediation Programme in July 2026.

Data reviewed by JOYBUSINESS suggests that the intense demand pressures that weakened the cedi in the first quarter of the year may be easing.

The Bank of Ghana believes most businesses have completed major restocking activities, while new measures introduced to manage dollar demand are beginning to yield results.

The regulator says it will continue implementing these measures to sustain the local currency’s recent performance against the US dollar.

“The Bank of Ghana’s FX intermediation programme helped moderate pressures on the cedi that came from frontloading of demand, particularly from the energy sector,” the Central Bank noted.

It added that the programme would continue to improve market liquidity and reduce speculative demand.

Currently, some commercial banks are selling the dollar at about GH¢11.55, while forex bureaux are selling at around GH¢12.30.

Expected Dollar Inflows to Support Reserves

The Bank of Ghana is also counting on increased inflows from remittances and development partners to strengthen Ghana’s foreign exchange reserves.

It expects remittance inflows to improve between the second and third quarters of the year, providing additional support to the country’s reserve position.

The Central Bank also expects possible inflows, including about US$380 million in IMF programme support and a further US$240 million expected in July 2026, to boost reserves.

It further believes renewed investor confidence, following Ghana’s recent Fitch upgrade and government’s early Eurobond repayment decision, could support the economy.

Risks Remain

Despite the positive outlook, the Bank of Ghana cautioned that some risks remain.

It warned that uncertainties surrounding the fragile Middle East peace process could affect global crude oil prices and increase dollar demand from businesses in Ghana.

The Central Bank says it will continue to monitor developments and implement measures aimed at maintaining stability in the foreign exchange market.

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Information obtained by JoyBusiness indicates that the central bank sold $1.2 billion through its Forex Intermediation Programme, with auctions conducted twice a week throughout June.

The amount was in line with the Bank’s monthly auction target. However, commercial banks submitted bids totalling $3.42 billion, reflecting strong demand for foreign exchange.

Sources told JoyBusiness that demand for dollars remained exceptionally high during the month.

The June Forex Intermediation Programme was executed under the Domestic Gold Exchange Programme.

In addition, the Bank of Ghana supplied $811 million through its FX Intervention Programme, which is designed to dampen exchange rate volatility whenever necessary.

The interventions formed part of the Bank’s broader FX Operations Framework, which also supports its reserve accumulation strategy.

Impact on the Cedi

The aggressive market support helped the cedi post a 3.30% appreciation against the US dollar in June 2026.

It is the first monthly appreciation recorded by the local currency this year and is widely attributed to the central bank’s increased intervention in the forex market.

Despite the June rebound, the cedi has still depreciated by 7.9% against the dollar between January and July 2026.

The improved market support, however, appears to have significantly slowed the pace of depreciation after sustained pressure during the first half of the year.

The local currency came under pressure as businesses increased dollar demand to restock inventories, while higher global crude oil prices pushed Ghana’s import bill above earlier projections.

Lower Dollar Auction Planned for July

The Bank of Ghana plans to auction $1 billion through its Forex Intermediation Programme in July 2026.

It remains unclear why the Bank has reduced the auction target from the $1.2 billion sold in June.

However, market analysts believe the cedi’s improved performance may have influenced the decision.

Data reviewed by JoyBusiness suggest that the sustained pressure on the cedi during the first quarter of the year may be easing as demand for dollars begins to slow.

Most businesses have already completed their major restocking for the year, while new Bank of Ghana measures aimed at moderating dollar demand are also beginning to take effect.

Analysts also expect lower global crude oil prices to reduce foreign-exchange demand from energy sector players, providing additional support for the local currency.

The Bank of Ghana has assured commercial banks that it remains committed to transparency and will continue to disclose relevant information on its foreign exchange market operations, including activities under the FX Intermediation Programme.

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The local currency’s Year-To-Date losses reduced significantly from about 11% to roughly 6% over the two-week review period, supported by strong foreign exchange supply from the Bank of Ghana.

In the interbank market, it strengthened by 5.66% against the US dollar, 6.76% against the British pound, and 6.24% against the euro, settling at midrates of GH¢11.22 to one American greenback, GH¢14.83 to a pound, and GH¢12.86 to a euro, respectively.

This was mirrored in the retail market, where the cedi firmed by 2.07% against the US dollar to GH¢12.05 to a US dollar, and by 2.19% and 2.25% against the pound and euro, closing at GH¢16.00/pound and GH¢13.90/euro, respectively.

 “The outcome fell below our earlier expectations following stronger-than-anticipated FX [forex] interventions by the Bank of Ghana. We had estimated lighter interventions in early June 2026, with larger interventions later in the month, but sizeable discounted FX liquidity injections disrupted this path, easing speculative pressures and driving an average 6% appreciation”, said Databank Research.

Historically, it said, episodes of intermediation in the US$1.2-1.5 billion range have improved market stability and reduced speculative demand”.

With a significant share of the June 2026 US$1.2 billion allocation yet to be disbursed, analysts expect further foreign exchange supply to support the cedi firmly toward the GH¢10.90 per US dollar region in the coming weeks, conditional on sustained forex liquidity inflows.

 Meanwhile, the cedi began this week going for GH¢12.10 to one US dollar in the market. Its year-to-date gain stands at 0.62%.

In the interbank market, it is going for GH¢11.22 to one American greenback.

The cedi, according to the latest market update, weakened in both the interbank and retail foreign exchange markets, with analysts attributing the depreciation to heightened demand for US dollars amid moderate foreign exchange supply.

The cedi traded at GHS 11.85 to the US dollar, down from GHS 11.63 recorded in the previous review period in the interbank market and also depreciated against the British pound and the euro, with exchange rates rising to GHS 15.85 per pound and GHS 13.66 per euro from GHS 15.62 and GHS 13.49, respectively.

The depreciation was also felt in the retail market, with the cedi losing 0.81 percent against the dollar, 1.83 percent against the pound, and 1.40 percent against the euro, closing at mid-rates of GHS 12.30 per dollar, GHS 16.35 per pound and GHS 14.30 euro.

Despite the foreign exchange interventions of approximately $1.1 billion by the Bank of Ghana in May, the cedi depreciated by an average of 4.18 percent between April and May 2026, compared to the 3.23 percent decline recorded at the end of April.

According to a report by citinewsroom.com, analysts have attributed the weakness to demand for foreign currency consistently outpacing supply, compounded by growing global appetite for the US dollar as central banks liquidate non-dollar assets to meet rising import costs driven by persistently high crude oil prices.

Looking ahead, market observers expect speculation in the foreign exchange market to remain relatively contained in June, supported by an announced $1.2 billion monthly foreign exchange support programme.

Analysts, however, warn that the cedi could face additional pressure in the coming weeks as multinational companies begin repatriating profits and dividends during the second-quarter repatriation period.

“Corporate demand typically peaks during the Q2 repatriation window, driven by multinational dividend and profit outflows,” the report noted.

The dollar-cedi exchange rate is expected to weaken further beyond the current interbank level of GHS 11.85 unless foreign exchange inflows strengthen significantly.

Meanwhile, in South Africa, the rand also came under pressure during the review period, weakening by 1.15 percent to close at ZAR 16.28 per US dollar.

Analysts attributed the decline to elevated oil prices and renewed geopolitical tensions that have dampened investor risk appetite and increased concerns over import costs.

The outlook for the rand remains cautious, with elevated crude oil prices and uncertain global market conditions expected to keep the currency under pressure in the near term.

JOYBUSINESS understands that the central bank plans to auction up to $1.2 billion this month, up from the US$1 billion it sold in May.

It is not immediately clear whether the decision was influenced by the recent depreciation of the cedi or forms part of the Bank’s broader forex support strategy for 2026.

However, a circular to commercial banks sighted by JOYBUSINESS indicated that future monthly auction volumes will be determined by prevailing market conditions.

New FX operations framework

In its June FX Intermediation notice to banks, the central bank said its actions will be guided by its newly approved foreign exchange operations framework.

The Bank explained that it has begun implementing measures to support reserve accumulation while ensuring FX interventions are available to dampen excessive market volatility when necessary.

The framework also supports foreign exchange intermediation under the Domestic Gold Purchase Programme.

Regarding its May operations, the Bank said all forex sales were conducted in a market-neutral manner on a spot basis through twice-weekly auctions accessible to all licensed banks.

It stressed that there were no direct FX interventions in May 2026.

The Bank further assured market participants that it remains committed to transparency and will continue to disclose relevant information on its foreign exchange market activities, including its FX intermediation operations.

Cedi performance

According to the Bank of Ghana’s internal data, the cedi has depreciated by 10.91% against the US dollar year-to-date.

This contrasts sharply with the same period last year, when the local currency had appreciated by more than 20%.

The central bank maintains that the current weakness of the cedi is largely seasonal and driven by increased demand for foreign exchange by the energy sector amid tensions in the Middle East.

The rise in global crude oil prices has increased Ghana’s import bill, raising demand for dollars to finance fuel imports.

Data contained in the Bank of Ghana’s May 2026 Summary of Economic and Financial Data showed that Ghana’s oil import bill rose from US$1.6 billion in April 2025 to US$2 billion in April 2026.

Demand for dollars has also increased as several multinational companies enter their dividend payment season and seek foreign exchange to repatriate profits.

No cause for panic

The Bank of Ghana has sought to calm market concerns, insisting it has sufficient reserves to meet seasonal foreign exchange demand.

As of May 2026, Ghana’s gross international reserves stood at approximately US$14.42 billion.

Market analysts say this provides the central bank with a strong buffer to meet forex demand without placing undue pressure on reserves.

Speaking at the 130th Monetary Policy Committee press briefing, Governor Dr Johnson Asiama said the Bank had adequate currency buffers to support the market and described the current pressures on the cedi as temporary.

He attributed the situation largely to seasonal demand linked to dividend payments and increased foreign exchange requirements in the energy sector.

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For many Ghanaians, especially after the cedi’s remarkable performance in 2025, the recent weakening has raised concerns about whether the currency is coming under renewed pressure and whether there is cause for alarm.

The recent depreciation feels unusual largely because the cedi is coming off one of its strongest performances in modern Ghanaian history.

In 2025, the cedi appreciated by about 40.7% against the US dollar after decades of almost continuous annual depreciation.

The currency started 2025 trading around GH¢14.7 to the dollar and ended the year near GH¢10.4.

After such an extraordinary appreciation, it is easy to forget that currencies are still expected to move. In reality, maintaining a completely stable exchange rate after such a sharp gain would have been difficult.

In fact, President Mahama indicated during engagements with the business community in 2025 that a gradual annual depreciation of around 5% would be considered acceptable if it supports stability and competitiveness.

A 5% depreciation from the cedi’s end-2025 level would place the currency somewhere around GH¢11 to the dollar by the end of 2026, which remains far stronger than where the currency traded before its 2025 rally.

Importantly, many of the major factors that supported the cedi’s appreciation in 2025 still broadly remain in place.

Gold prices are still elevated, fiscal policy has remained relatively disciplined and Ghana continues to benefit from strong gold export earnings.

The creation of GoldBod also changed the foreign exchange dynamics of the market by centralizing much of Ghana’s gold export proceeds and channeling those inflows toward the Bank of Ghana through a relatively inefficient structure.

However, the current pressures on the cedi appear to stem from a combination of rising dollar demand and some temporary disruptions to dollar inflows.

The biggest pressure point currently is energy imports.

The ongoing Middle East conflict has pushed global oil prices sharply higher, with crude prices rising from around $60–70 per barrel before the conflict to periods above $100 per barrel.

Because Ghana imports most of its refined petroleum products, the higher oil prices have significantly increased the country’s monthly fuel import bill.

Recent industry estimates suggest Ghana’s monthly petroleum import requirements have risen to roughly US$500 million, up from around US$400 million during the same period in 2025.

That alone substantially increases demand for dollars.

At the same time, another seasonal pressure is also emerging.

Following the release of many companies’ 2025 financial statements, foreign-owned firms have been repatriating dividends to parent companies abroad.

Those transactions require dollars because no company in South Africa, the UK or elsewhere will accept cedis as dividend payments. That again increases pressure on the foreign exchange market.

In addition, many businesses typically restock inventories around the middle of the year, creating another layer of dollar demand for imports.

Together, these factors point to a period of elevated demand for foreign exchange.

Normally, such pressure becomes problematic only if dollar supply weakens significantly.

There are indications that parts of Ghana’s foreign exchange inflows may have faced temporary disruptions during the early stages of the Middle East conflict.

Ghana sells the overwhelming majority of its small-scale sector gold through GoldBod to markets such as Dubai and India.

Following the escalation of the conflict, parts of Middle Eastern airspace were temporarily disrupted, affecting trade routes and logistics.

GoldBod’s Chief Executive Officer, Sammy Gyamfi, publicly confirmed at the time that the agency had temporarily halted some gold exports, describing it as a management decision amid market uncertainty.

At the same time, Reuters reported that GoldBod was exploring increased gold sales to India. However, India itself has recently taken steps to manage gold imports as part of efforts to support the rupee and manage external balances.

These developments may have slowed portions of Ghana’s foreign exchange inflows at a time when dollar demand was rising sharply.

Still, from the Bank of Ghana’s perspective, overall foreign exchange conditions remain relatively strong.

The Governor of the Bank of Ghana, Johnson Pandit Asiama, has repeatedly maintained that dollar supply remains robust.

Ghana’s gross international reserves currently stand around US$14 billion and continue to improve.

The issue therefore may not necessarily be the absence of dollars in the system, but rather the Bank of Ghana’s decision not to aggressively increase its interventions in the market.

One important factor is that the central bank is currently operating under a revised foreign exchange intermediation framework developed with the IMF in late 2025.

That framework appears designed to reduce excessive intervention and allow the exchange rate to adjust more freely, provided movements remain orderly.

As Ghana transitions from the IMF Extended Credit Facility programme toward a Policy Coordination Instrument arrangement, maintaining policy credibility has become increasingly important.

Heavy intervention to artificially defend the cedi could send the wrong signal to investors and international markets, especially at a time when Ghana is attempting to demonstrate stronger macroeconomic discipline after years of economic instability.

This may partly explain why the Bank of Ghana has so far resisted significantly increasing dollar supply through its forex auctions despite rising market demand.

As Governor Asiama recently noted, “the cedi is expected to move. It can depreciate or appreciate. Our concern is to avoid excessive volatility.”

That distinction is important.

The Bank of Ghana does not appear focused on defending a fixed exchange rate. Rather, its objective appears centered on preventing disorderly market conditions and sharp speculative swings.

The cedi’s recent depreciation therefore reflects a mix of higher oil-related dollar demand, seasonal dividend repatriation pressures, temporary disruptions to parts of Ghana’s gold export flows and the Bank of Ghana’s cautious approach toward intervention.

After the cedi’s extraordinary appreciation in 2025, some degree of correction or weakening in 2026 was always likely.

For now, however, the available evidence suggests the situation remains manageable.

Dollar reserves remain relatively strong, Ghana’s key export commodities continue to perform well and the Bank of Ghana still retains substantial capacity to intervene if market conditions become excessively volatile.

At this stage, the recent depreciation appears more like a controlled adjustment to shifting global conditions than the start of a broader currency crisis.

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According to multiple analyses, including publications by Reuters using data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), the cedi has suffered a steady decline so far in 2026, thereby assuming the unenviable position of the worst-performing currency in West Africa on a year-to-date basis.

At the time of the reports last week, which rated the cedi as having declined by 10.28% year-to-date, it traded at 11.36 cedis to the dollar, with a Reuters report particularly predicting a further decline in the week ahead.

“Ghana’s cedi is being dragged down by persistent corporate foreign-currency demand, particularly from the energy sector,” the Reuters report said, showing trends of consistent decline of the cedi in recent weeks using data from LSEG.

The report predicted further decline in the weeks ahead and, true to the prediction, the slump continued, as the cedi closed trading last week at a further depreciated rate of 11.61 to the dollar, maintaining its high year-to-date percentage decline among West African currencies.

The cedi is one of nine currencies in West Africa, including the CFA franc, which is used by eight West African countries.

Among the currencies in West Africa, the cedi has so far, in 2026, recorded the biggest year-to-date decline of 10.28% as of the beginning of May, which also places it among some of the continent’s worst-performing currencies in 2026, such as the Libyan dinar, which recorded a 17.21% decline against the US dollar.

Positive indicators, weak currency

The continuous decline of the cedi, despite assurances by the Bank of Ghana, contradicts recent positive economic indicators — a situation that continues to raise anxiety and concern.

Despite inflation declining significantly, the cedi continues to underperform, with traders paying far above official rates used for the analysis on the forex market.

This situation has contributed to soaring prices of goods despite the significant drop in the inflation rate.

As the Reuters report noted, demand for forex from importers is fuelling a “steady” slide of the cedi.

The cedi, the report concluded, “is on a depreciating path due to persistent FX demand, with traders expecting the trend to continue.”

Addressing the media after the central bank’s 130th Monetary Policy Committee meeting in Accra, Dr. Asiama said recent gains in the foreign exchange market reflect stronger economic fundamentals and coordinated policy interventions.

“We do not foresee a return to the era of sustained depreciation of the cedi,” he assured.

According to the Governor, improved foreign exchange inflows, rising reserve buffers and fiscal discipline have played a major role in stabilising the local currency in recent months.

He added that increased gold export earnings, remittance inflows and renewed investor confidence are also contributing to the cedi’s relative stability against major trading currencies.

“The stability we are witnessing is backed by stronger macroeconomic conditions and prudent policy measures,” Dr. Asiama explained.

He stressed that the central bank remains committed to maintaining tight monitoring of the foreign exchange market to prevent excessive volatility and preserve stability.

“We will continue to implement the appropriate measures necessary to maintain confidence and stability in the currency market,” he added.

The assurance comes after the Monetary Policy Committee maintained the policy rate at 14 percent amid easing inflation and improving economic indicators.

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Speaking after the Monetary Policy Committee of the BoG maintained the policy rate at 14 percent, Dr. Asiama explained that the relative stability of the cedi in recent months has largely been driven by improved market fundamentals, stronger inflows and growing investor confidence.

“We are not intervening in the market in a manner that distorts the exchange rate. What we are doing is building reserves and strengthening buffers for the economy,” he stated.

According to the Governor, Ghana’s reserve position has improved significantly, helping the country withstand external shocks and support confidence in the local currency.

“The reserve accumulation programme is progressing well and this is providing confidence to the market and supporting exchange rate stability,” he added.

Dr. Asiama further assured businesses and investors that the central bank remains committed to prudent monetary management and would continue to monitor developments in the foreign exchange market closely.

“Our objective is to ensure long-term macroeconomic stability and avoid a return to the era of sustained currency depreciation,” he stressed.

The Governor acknowledged that global uncertainties, particularly tensions in the Middle East and fluctuations in commodity prices, continue to pose risks to emerging market currencies, including the cedi.

However, he maintained that Ghana’s improving macroeconomic indicators, easing inflation and stronger foreign reserve position are helping to cushion the economy against external pressures.

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The local currency traded at GH¢11.4125 to one US dollar in the first week of May, weakening from GH¢10.95 at the end of January. Against the British pound, the cedi depreciated by 7.5 per cent year-to-date, trading at GH¢15.2055 to the pound, while against the euro, the cedi also recorded a 7.5 per cent depreciation, closing at GH¢13.2695.

The Real Effective Exchange Rate, which measures the cedi’s value against a basket of trading partner currencies adjusted for inflation, stood at 93.5 in April 2026, indicating that the currency remains broadly competitive despite the nominal depreciation.

Inflation hits 3.4 per cent in April

Consumer inflation continued its downward trajectory, falling to 3.4 per cent year-on-year in April 2026, up marginally from 3.2 per cent in March but still within striking distance of the central bank’s single-digit target band. Food inflation stood at 2.2 per cent, while non-food inflation rose slightly to 4.2 per cent.

The disinflationary trend has been driven by base effects from the previous year, stable exchange rates, and tight monetary policy. The Monetary Policy Rate was reduced to 14.0 per cent in April 2026, down from 15.5 per cent in January and sharply lower than the 28.0 per cent rate recorded in April 2025.Business News Analysis

Monthly inflation remained subdued, with April recording a 0.9 per cent increase in consumer prices, driven by a 0.8 per cent rise in food prices and a 1.1 per cent increase in non-food prices.

Gold and oil prices diverge

International commodity prices presented a mixed picture. Gold prices surged 9.4 per cent year-to-date to US$4,724.10 per fine ounce in April 2026, providing strong support to Ghana’s export revenues. The realised gold price averaged US$4,466.20 per ounce, up 6.7 per cent for the year.

Dormant Accounts Access Bank

Brent crude oil prices rallied sharply, climbing 67.4 per cent year-to-date to US$103.20 per barrel in April, raising concerns about potential imported inflation and additional pressure on the cedi from higher fuel import bills. The realised crude oil price stood at US$110.70 per barrel.

Cocoa prices continued their long-term decline, falling 43.2 per cent year-to-date to US$3,350.10 per tonne, as global supply conditions improved following two years of production shortfalls.

Interest rates fall across the curve

The Bank of Ghana’s policy rate reductions have fed through to the broader economy, with the average lending rate falling to 16.33 per cent in April 2026, down from 27.40 per cent a year earlier. The 91-day Treasury bill interest rate fell to 4.90 per cent, while the 182-day and 364-day bills traded at 6.84 per cent and 10.02 per cent respectively.Ghanaian Culture Blog

The interbank weighted average rate declined to 10.36 per cent in April, reflecting improved liquidity conditions in the banking system.

External reserves remain adequate

Gross international reserves stood at US$13.95 billion in April 2026, sufficient to cover 5.5 months of import cover, well above the conventional adequacy benchmark of three months. Net international reserves were recorded at US$10.99 billion.

The country’s total public debt stood at GH¢674.1 billion as of March 2026, equivalent to 42.2 per cent of GDP. External debt accounted for GH¢313.6 billion (19.6 per cent of GDP), while domestic debt stood at GH¢360.4 billion (22.6 per cent of GDP).

Stock market rallies on favourable conditions

The Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index surged 72.5 per cent year-to-date to 15,130.5 points in April 2026, reflecting renewed investor confidence in the economy. Market capitalisation rose to GH¢281.8 billion, up 63.8 per cent since the beginning of the year.

The GSE Financial Stock Index performed even more strongly, gaining 90.2 per cent year-to-date to 8,839.4 points, as banking sector stocks continued their remarkable recovery following the Domestic Debt Exchange Programme.

Mobile money transactions surge

Mobile money transaction values reached GH¢493.2 billion in April 2026, with 967 million transactions processed during the month. Registered mobile money accounts grew to 83 million, with 26 million active accounts. The value of mobile money interoperability transactions stood at GH¢5.8 billion for the month.

Outlook

The sharp depreciation of the cedi, combined with the dramatic rally in crude oil prices and persistent weakness in cocoa revenues, presents ongoing risks to the external accounts. However, the continued decline in inflation and the reduction in interest rates provide a favourable backdrop for private sector credit growth and economic expansion.

The Bank of Ghana’s next monetary policy committee meeting will be closely watched for signals on the future direction of interest rates and any potential interventions to stabilise the local currency.

In the interbank market, it depreciated 1.64% against the dollar to GH¢11.28, while losing 2.46% against the pound to GH¢15.36. It also lost 2.15% against the euro to trade at GH¢13.28.

In the retail market, the local currency slipped 0.84% against the dollar to GH¢11.83. It also recorded marginal losses against the pound and euro to sell at GH¢15.80 and GH¢13.75 respectively.

The year-to-date depreciation averaged 7.8% against all the major foreign currencies as of 8th May 2026, compared to 2.5% over the same period last year.

Databank Research said the performance of the cedi is broadly in line with its forecast.

“We believe this reflects a mix of sustained import demand and cautious FX [forex] supply conditions, with sentiment further influenced by recent financial position concerns of the Bank of Ghana”.

Nonetheless, it said expectations of a rebound remain anchored on strong reserve buffers and anticipated International Monetary Fund (IMF) approval of the US$385 million Extended Credit Facility (ECF), which should create room for stronger foreign exchange support.

“Overall, we maintain our view of contained volatility, with the cedi expected to remain steady within a GH¢10.95-11.35 to a US dollar range by the close of the next fortnight”.

Meanwhile, the local currency began this week going for GH¢11.90 to one dollar at the forex bureaus.

Its year-to-date appreciation stood at 2.53% in the retail market.

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The local currency recorded volatility of approximately 0.5% compared to a historical weekly average of approximately 2.1%.

In the interbank market, the Ghana cedi weakened by 0.54% to a mid-rate of GH¢11.09 against the dollar, while the pound and the euro declined by 0.95% and 0.47% to GH¢14.99 and GH¢12.99, respectively.

The retail rates mirrored this with steeper drops of 2.10% depreciation of the cedi to dollar to trade at GH¢ 11.93. The cedi also depreciated by 2.50% against the pound to sell at GH¢15.78, whilst the euro appreciated by 3.09% against the cedi to trade at GH¢ 13.78.

Since the beginning of the year, the cedi has lost approximately 2.55% of its value against the American greenback with a month-on-month depreciation of 0.79% between March 2026 and April 2026.

Broadly in line with its earlier view, Databank Research said the mounting import demand continues to weigh on the cedi as traders restock ahead of mid-year consumer demand.

“In the first week of the next review window, we expect this buy-side pressure, together with relatively cautious FX [foreign exchange] supply, to keep the market under mild strain.”

It added that the sentiment should improve in the second week if the IMF staff mission concludes positively, potentially unlocking about US$385 million, subject to IMF Board approval.

“We believe this would help ease negative expectations and give the Bank of Ghana more room to support the market, keeping the cedi fairly stable, reinforced by modest inflows from GoldBod. We forecast the pair to trade within GH¢10.95-11.35 band by the end of the fortnight”, it stated.

Meanwhile, the cedi began this week going for GH¢11.85 to the US dollar at the forex bureaus.

The local currency depreciated modestly across both the interbank and retail forex markets, driven by a combination of domestic demand pressures and external factors.

On the interbank market, the local currency weakened by 1.55% against the dollar, 1.66% against the pound, and 0.90% to the the euro, closing at mid-rates of GH¢10.94 against US dollar, GH¢14.62 to the the pound and GH¢12.61 to the euro.

This trend was mirrored in the retail segment, where the cedi depreciated by 0.43% against the American greenback to GH¢11.60 and 1.62% against the pound to GH¢15.40, respectively. It remained broadly stable to the euro at GH¢13.45.

Analysts believe the recent depreciation reflects renewed forex demand from importers, elevated system liquidity, and rising oil prices, which are increasing the import bill.

Databank Research said the external backdrop remains a key driver, with higher crude prices posing upside risks to both the trade balance and inflation.

“At the same time, while gold prices had previously provided strong forex support, the recent pullback driven by signs of geopolitical de-escalation may reduce this buffer. On balance, we expect the cedi to maintain a mild depreciation bias in the coming weeks, with stability dependent on sustained FX [forex] inflows and evolving”, it added.

Meanwhile, the cedi began this week going for GH¢11.70 against one dollar in the retail market.

The year-to-date gain stood at 4.96%.

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This was supported by improved conditions of foreign exchange liquidity.

On the interbank market, the cedi strengthened by 1.86% against the US dollar, 3.00% against the pound and 3.45% against the euro. It closed at mid-rates of GH¢10.77 per dollar, GH¢14.38 against the pound and GH¢12.50 to the euro.

The gains were also reflected in the retail segment, where the currency appreciated by 0.65% against the American greenback, 2.64% against the pound and 0.37% against the euro settling at GH¢11.55 to a dollar, GH¢15.15 to a pound and GH¢13.45 against the euro.

Databank believes the recent appreciation was partly driven by stronger export receipts from gold and crude oil.

“The elevated commodity prices amid escalating Middle East tensions boosted FX [foreign exchange] inflows and improved liquidity in the domestic market”, it said.

However, it pointed out that the broader global backdrop remains fragile, with heightened geopolitical risks strengthening the US dollar as a safe-haven asset and sustaining global demand for dollar liquidity.

“Looking ahead, stronger commodity export receipts alongside the Central Bank’s targeted US$1bn FX intervention facility for March [2026] should provide near-term support to the cedi. Nonetheless, we anticipate that rising importer-driven FX demand, higher import costs and persistent global risk aversion will reintroduce depreciation pressures on the currency”, it added.

Meanwhile, the cedi began trading at GH¢11.40 to the American greenback at the forex bureaus.

Its year-to-date gain stood at 6.33%.

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The local currency, which had depreciated by more than 4% earlier in the year based on price quotes by some major commercial banks, has now recorded a much slower depreciation of about 1.65% since the beginning of the year.

Analysts say the slowdown reflects an improvement in the cedi’s performance that began in the second week of February 2026.

Data from commercial banks show that the cedi actually appreciated by about 2.21% from the second week of February.

The development has been linked to an increase in dollar supply and a reduction in demand for foreign exchange from businesses. Some market analysts also attribute the lower demand to the week-long Chinese New Year holiday.

The month opened at USD/GH¢10.9500/10.9800 and closed at GH¢10.7000/10.7550, translating into an appreciation of about 2.21% over the period.

One market player told JoyBusiness that “By mid-February, FX liquidity improved, coinciding with the Chinese New Year holidays, during which demand for hard currency softened materially.”

The Bank of Ghana also supported the market through its dollar intermediation programme.

Throughout February, the central bank sold a total of $902 million through its bi-weekly auctions, out of a $1 billion intermediation target.

Trading activity remained strong during the period, with daily average turnover hovering around $20 million. The final trading session of the month recorded about $18 million in transactions within the 10.6300–10.7550 range.

The central bank has announced that it will maintain the same intermediation approach for March, keeping the $1 billion target.

However, some market analysts expect mild pressure on the cedi as foreign exchange demand resumes following the Chinese New Year holidays.

Others believe the expected domestic bond issuance later this month could attract offshore investor participation, provide additional liquidity support and help keep the cedi relatively stable.

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This means the cedi will end 2026 trading at GH¢12.85 to one American greenback.

According to its 2026 Economic Outlook, this outlook factors in demand pressures from bulk importers, energy, and Eurobond payments, while assuming no systemic shocks.

“The forecast is anchored on a conservative monthly inflow of approximately GH¢750 million from GOLDBOD, alongside ongoing reforms in the small-scale mining sector”. It highlighted that a steady gold-backed inflows are expected to enable the Bank of Ghana to manage market expectations and effectively smooth currency pressures.

Beyond these domestic drivers, the report said a favourable market sentiment is expected from continued International Monetary Fund and World Bank programme support. “We also observe a gradual decline in global central banks’ reliance on the US dollar as a reserve currency, with China leading the shift towards gold holdings amid uncertainties surrounding US policy”.

It continued that this has sparked discussions on reclassifying gold from Tier 1 to High-Quality Liquid Asset (HQLA) status, potentially validating its use as collateral in repo financing. “Although BRICS deliberations on this measure remain tentative, constrained by volatility, custody issues, and trust, its implementation would represent a structural shift in the global financial system”.

Such a change, it stressed, could strengthen gold’s monetary role, reduce US dollar dominance, and, indirectly, support cedi stability by boosting reserve accumulation.

Excluding this low-probability scenario, Databank Research maintained a neutral-to-positive outlook for the cedi, underpinned by tighter foreign exchange regulations and resilient reserve buffers sufficient to absorb moderate demand pressures.

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Over the past fortnight, the cedi encountered mild demand-driven pressures in the opening week, as anticipated.

However, it clawed back losses in the latter half as broad-based “sell America” sentiment underpinned external support.

In the interbank market, the cedi appreciated by 0.09% against the US dollar, 0.86% against the pound sterling, and 1.16% against the euro, closing at mid rates of GH¢10.97 to the US dollar, GH¢14.81 to the pound and GH¢12.93 to the euro.

The positive momentum filtered through to the retail segment, where the currency strengthened by 0.6% against the US dollar, 1.29% against the pound sterling, and 1.11% against the euro. It settled the period at mid-rates of GH¢11.63/US dollar, GH¢15.55/pound and GH¢13.50/euro.

“We concur that the cedi’s recent appreciation mirrors gains across other major Sub-Saharan African (SSA) currencies, highlighting broad-based external support from sustained US dollar weakness”, said Databank Research.

In the near term, it expects these tailwinds to drive further cedi strength as expectations of continued US dollar softness moderate demand for the greenback, amid heightened risks of a potential Iran confrontation.

“Supported by targeted forex intervention from the Central Bank through a US$1.0 billion facility gradually deployed to meet market demand, we anticipate the cedi’s gains extending to an interbank mid-rate range of GH¢10.85 – GH¢10.95/US dollar over the next fortnight. Retail rates should align around GH¢11.55-11.60/US dollar, with scope for tighter spreads if inflows accelerate.

Meanwhile, the cedi began this week going for GH¢11.70 in the retail market.

Its year-to-date gain stood at 4.95% to the American greenback.

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In a statement issued Wednesday, COPEC projected that “Petroleum prices beginning the 1st window of March, 2026 are expected to see some marginal increments across the pumps.”

According to the chamber, “Petrol is expected to go up marginally by 3.59%, Diesel by 1.52% whiles LPG could witness a decline of -1.57% across various pumps respectively.”

Explaining the outlook, COPEC said global crude prices edged up by about 1.25%, rising from $70.90 per barrel to $71.79 per barrel. Over the same period, the cedi appreciated only slightly against the dollar.

“The Cedi, however, witnessed a marginal appreciation against the Dollar to close trading from an average interbank rate of $1:GHS11.0990 at the start of the current window to $1:GHS11.0723 (0.24%) as of the close of the window,” the statement noted.

For petrol, COPEC said the international Free On Board (FOB) price jumped significantly.

“With the international FOB price of petrol increasing from $652.64/MT to $685.27/MT (5.03%) and a currency appreciation of about 0.24%, the retail price of petrol works up to an increment of 3.59%.”

It projected that “the retail price of Petrol is expected to be selling between GHS11.8/L and GHS13/L, within a ±5% range of COPEC’s projection.”

Diesel is also expected to record a marginal rise.

“With the International FOB price of diesel increasing from $695.94/MT to $711.86MT (2.29%) and cedi’s appreciation averages of 0.24%, the projected retail pump price for diesel in the next window shall work up to an increment of 1.52%.”

COPEC said diesel prices are likely to range “between GHS12.73/L and GHS14.0/L within a ±5% range of COPEC’s projection.”

LPG, however, could offer some relief to consumers.

“With the international FOB price of LPG decreasing from $508.77MT to $503.59/MT (-1.5%) and the cedi’s appreciation of about 0.24%, the projected retail price of LPG is expected to decline marginally by -1.57%.”

Within the allowable margin of error, LPG is projected to sell “between GHS11.48/kg and GHS12.69/kg.”

Despite the expected adjustments, COPEC urged restraint at the pumps.

“In conclusion, it is the expectation of COPEC that the various Oil Marketing Companies would maintain prices across the pumps in order not to overburden the consumer with these expected increments in the coming window,” the statement signed by Executive Secretary Duncan Amoah said.

The projections suggest that while currency stability provides some cushion, global market pressures continue to dictate pump pricing trends.

Analysts attribute last year’s rally to elevated gold prices, strong cocoa earnings, and increased foreign reserves, which allowed the Bank of Ghana to inject roughly $10 billion into the foreign exchange market.

Gold exports were a key driver, reaching $8.3 billion in the first half of 2025 alone—nearly double the previous year.

“Because the Ghana Gold Board is mandated to surrender its foreign exchange earnings to the Bank of Ghana, these inflows went directly to strengthening reserves rather than leaking into parallel markets,” the report noted.

The advisory cautions that 2026 will test the resilience of the currency.

“While gold prices should remain elevated, the Bank of Ghana is likely to allow the currency to resume its traditional gradual weakening trend to preserve Ghana’s external competitiveness,” EM Advisory said. By year-end, the cedi is projected to trade at GHS 12.0/USD, reflecting a modest depreciation from current levels.

Reserve adequacy remains a focus, with total gross international reserves reaching $13.8 billion, equivalent to 5.7 months of import cover.

The report warned, however, that reliance on a concentrated commodity export base—predominantly gold, cocoa, and oil—leaves Ghana vulnerable to global price swings.

The advisory recommends structural reforms to reduce commodity dependence and strengthen resilience. “Establishing a modern gold refinery and implementing traceability mechanisms across the supply chain would help capture more value domestically and reduce exposure to price volatility,” EM Advisory suggested.

The local gold refining initiative with Gold Coast Refinery is highlighted as a promising step toward this goal.

Speaking on Joy News’ PM Express, Mr Boateng said the refusal by some businesses to adjust prices downward is not just unfair, but also deliberate.

“I see the action of not wanting to reduce prices as a deliberate issue,” he said, describing the situation as one where a trader may refuse to reduce the price of bread, “irrespective of the fact that the commodity, some of the commodities that he’s using to bake the bread… has gone down.”

According to him, such behaviour reflects a troubling attitude among some Ghanaians who refuse to allow others to benefit from improved economic conditions.

“And I see that as an attitude of some of Ghanaians that, irrespective of whatever situation that we find ourselves, we will not let our compatriots also enjoy the gains that we have made,” he said.

Mr Boateng stressed that the cedi’s appreciation is no longer in dispute and that the business community has benefited from it.

“It is an undeniable fact that the cedi has appreciated for quite some time. And the business community has made some gains,” he said.

For that reason, he believes traders have a responsibility to reflect those gains in pricing.

“So definitely, the gains that we have made, we are supposed to also pass it on to the consumer, for the consumer to also enjoy a bit of what has happened in the marketplace,” he added.

When asked directly by the host whether the price reductions have actually happened, the GUTA President responded that the trend is real across the market, although some traders still refuse to comply.

“It has happened across board. Yes, across board. But you see, as we say, we have bad nuts in every community,” he said.

He warned that traders who stubbornly maintain high prices risk losing out in an increasingly competitive market.

“People have made up their minds that they will not reduce their prices. But I pity those people, because the market that we are in is a very, very competitive market,” he said.

Mr Boateng explained that trading is built on turnover, and any trader who sits on stock out of greed could end up damaging their own business.

“The business that we do, we use facilities in doing the business, and businesses thrive on turnover,” he noted.

He added that refusing to reduce prices will only benefit competitors who adjust faster and sell more.

“So if you sit behind your goods… and you will say you will not reduce it for the consumer… you do so at your own expense,” he warned.

“Your neighbour will sell fast and then bring in more goods to make the turnover that he wants, and his business will thrive, and then you will sit beside your goods, and will not make any sales,” he said.

Mr Boateng insisted that, overall, prices have already begun to fall and that this is reflected in inflation trends.

“So I can tell you for a fact that generally, prices have gone down. And that is why inflation also seems to be going down,” he said.

Explaining the concept, he said that inflation is linked to the value consumers get from their money.

“What does inflation mean? Inflation simply means having a purchasing value of your money on either goods or services,” he stated.

And on the issue of prices, he maintained that the evidence is clear.

“And I can tell you clearly that, if you want to talk about prices of goods… prices of goods, you know, have generally come down,” he said.

His comments come amid growing public pressure on importers, retailers, and manufacturers to pass on the improved exchange rate to the cost of goods, especially essentials.

For Mr. Boateng, the message to traders is simple: the cedi has gained, businesses have benefited, and consumers must not be left out.

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Data from the Bank of Ghana’s January 2026 Summary of Economic and Financial Data show the cedi trading at GH¢10.88 to the US dollar on the interbank market, compared with GH¢10.45 at the close of December 2025. This represents a depreciation of roughly four per cent over the period.

The local currency also weakened against other key trading currencies. It lost about 4.9 per cent against the British pound and 4.1 per cent against the euro, trading at GH¢14.77 to the pound and GH¢12.80 to the euro on the interbank market.

Movements across the foreign exchange market have been mixed over the past two weeks. In the retail segment, sustained demand pressures saw the cedi trading at around GH¢12.00 to the US dollar.

Over the same period, the dollar edged up from GH¢11.90 to GH¢12.15, while the pound and the euro strengthened further, closing at approximately GH¢16.30 and GH¢14.20, respectively.

Analysts attribute the January depreciation to seasonal foreign exchange demand, portfolio rebalancing at the start of the year, and the cedi’s sensitivity to global financial conditions.

Despite the slide, the scale of the decline is considered modest compared with the strong performance recorded in 2025.

The Bank of Ghana has maintained a cautious policy stance and continues to monitor foreign exchange market developments, with attention now focused on whether the early-year weakness will ease in the coming months or signal a more sustained adjustment following last year’s sharp appreciation.

The recent softening contrasts sharply with developments in 2025, when the cedi staged a notable recovery. After early losses in the first quarter, the currency rebounded strongly from April, gaining about 43 per cent against the dollar by May and ending the year with a cumulative appreciation of 40.7 per cent, supported by improved confidence, stronger foreign exchange inflows and tighter policy coordination.

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The US dollar/Ghana cedi closed at a midrate of GH¢10.88 in the interbank market, up from GH¢10.70.

However, the pound and euro eased by 2.70% and 2.57% to close at GH¢14.78 and GH¢12.80, respectively against the cedi.

In contrast, the retail rates saw the dollar firm modestly against the cedi to GH¢11.90 from GH¢12.15, while the pound and euro strengthened by 1.58% and 2.18%, closing at midrates of GH¢15.80 and GH¢13.75, respectively.

“As expected, renewed demand exceeding FX [forex] supply caused modest cedi losses in the interbank market, while relatively subdued retail demand likely prompted slight price adjustments to attract buyers. Looking ahead, we forecast a stronger cedi over the next two weeks, underpinned by anticipated FX injections to temper bearish expectations”, said Databank Research.

“On the external front, global rerouted flows and interest appear to favour persistent dollar weakness as sovereigns cautiously trim US Treasury holdings despite yield appeal. Coupled with expectations of a dovish Fed under Trump, our timing on these flows positions us ahead of the curve, eyeing a GH¢10.70/US dollar base case”, it added.

Meanwhile, the cedi started trading this week at GH¢12.00 to one American greenback.

Its year-to-date appreciation stands at 1.88% to the dollar.

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Speaking at the 2026 International Customs Day celebration, Mr. Ampem said the fight against corruption must be decisive and sustained, noting that public resources lost through unethical practices deprive the country of critical development opportunities.

“We must take decisive steps to eradicate all forms of corruption and fraud, as every cedi lost represents a missed opportunity for national development,” he stated.

The Deputy Finance Minister emphasised that revenue mobilisation remains the backbone of the government’s ability to deliver essential services, including infrastructure, education, healthcare, and sanitation. He cautioned that corruption within the Customs system has far-reaching consequences beyond revenue shortfalls.

According to him, funds lost through corruption translate into unbuilt schools, poor road networks, inadequate healthcare facilities, and reduced access to safe water and sanitation, all of which directly affect the wellbeing of citizens.

Mr. Ampem underscored the strategic role of the Customs Division of the Ghana Revenue Authority, not only in revenue mobilisation but also in protecting Ghana from illicit trade, including drugs, small arms, counterfeit medicines, and substandard goods. He said this responsibility makes integrity and professionalism within Customs non-negotiable.

He reaffirmed government’s commitment to strengthening Customs operations through policy reforms, digitalisation, and investments in modern infrastructure and technology, aimed at improving efficiency while closing avenues for corruption and fraud.

As Ghana joined the international community under the auspices of the World Customs Organization to mark International Customs Day, the Deputy Finance Minister urged Customs officers to recommit themselves to transparency, accountability, and patriotism.

He concluded by stressing that protecting national revenue is central to safeguarding Ghana’s future, adding that a zero-tolerance approach to corruption is essential to ensuring that every cedi collected works for the benefit of the nation.

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Dr Mumuni explained that this is why protecting the cedi must be seen as a collective responsibility.

“Protecting the cedi is not the task of one institution, but a collective responsibility of policymakers, businesses, households, and yes, the media,” he said.

He made the remarks in a speech on reporting on the Bank of Ghana’s operations and their impact on markets, delivered as part of the Governor’s New Year Media Engagement.

Dr Mumuni noted that the cedi ended the year much stronger, reflecting improved economic fundamentals, disciplined policy choices and growing confidence in the policy framework.

“And just as instability hurts everyone, stability benefits everyone,” he added.

He praised the media for its role during the Cedi@60 campaign, saying coverage during the period demonstrated the power of responsible reporting.

“By reinforcing responsible currency handling and national ownership of the cedi, your reporting helped turn policy into public action,” he said.

However, the First Deputy Governor cautioned against sensational reporting, warning that it can amplify anxiety, while incomplete context can distort public understanding.

He maintained that responsible journalism can help stabilise expectations and strengthen confidence in the economy.

“This is not about silencing criticism,” he said. “It is about recognising that in macroeconomics, perception often precedes reality.”

Cedi’s performance

The Ghana cedi ended 2025 with an appreciation of more than 40 per cent against the US dollar, making it one of the best-performing currencies in Africa for the year.

Market analysts have attributed the strong performance largely to the Bank of Ghana’s decisive measures to stabilise the local currency.

Central bank’s losses and the media

Dr Mumuni also stressed the need for context when reporting central bank losses, noting that such outcomes are not unusual.

“Central banks across the world can incur losses while taking decisive actions to stabilise their economies during periods of crisis,” he said.

According to him, such losses reflect policy choices made in the public interest rather than financial recklessness.

“These outcomes reflect policy choices made in the public interest, not financial recklessness,” he emphasised.

He warned that failing to clearly explain this distinction could erode public trust.

“When this distinction is not clearly explained, public trust can be eroded,” he said.

Dr Mumuni added that the broader policy outcomes should not be overlooked.

“The thrust of policy must not be lost; inflation fell sharply, reserves were rebuilt, and the cedi strengthened,” he noted.

Speaking on Asempa FM’s Ekosii Sen show, Dr. Assibey-Yeboah acknowledged that inflation has declined to about 5.4 per cent, suggesting some price stability. However, he warned that other economic indicators remain concerning.

“Ghana’s economic growth rate is currently estimated at about 4 per cent in 2025, the lowest in the West African sub-region. This is troubling for business expansion and job creation,” he noted.

He explained that the relatively strong cedi is affecting exporters, with institutions such as COCOBOD and the Ghana Revenue Authority (GRA) raising concerns over the exchange rate regime.

“For an exporting country, a strong currency is not good. The current exchange rate is hurting exporters. I believe the cedi is overvalued and should come to around 14 cedis to the dollar,” Dr. Assibey-Yeboah said.

He emphasised that sustainable economic growth, improved employment, and a competitive exchange rate must be prioritised to strengthen Ghana’s economy.

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Speaking to the media after engaging with traders, Madam Ofosu-Adjare noted that the exchange rate has strengthened significantly from about GH¢17 to the US dollar in 2024 to around GH¢12, easing foreign exchange pressures on imports and creating room for price reductions across the spare parts market.

She also highlighted recent fiscal measures, including the removal of the COVID-19 levy in the 2026 Budget, which she said would reduce import duties and overall costs on imported spare parts.

“In 2024, the dollar went up to about $1 to 17 cedis. Now it is under $12, so there shouldn’t be any justification for prices to remain the same or increase,” she stated.

Madam Ofosu-Adjare disclosed that this was her fifth engagement with traders across various markets, recalling that previous discussions in 2025 led to commitments by traders to reduce prices within four months as the cedi stabilised. She said about 80 per cent of dealers at Abossey Okai have already reduced prices, with many consumers, including drivers accompanying her, confirming the trend.

However, she noted that a few traders are yet to adjust prices fully and encouraged them to align with the improved macroeconomic conditions.

“I am excited about the reception and the assurance that when I return, prices will see further improvement. With the COVID levy now scrapped, import duties will naturally come down. From February or March, I expect prices to be even better than what we are seeing now,” she added.

The Minister also advised vehicle owners to purchase spare parts directly from dealers rather than through intermediaries, warning that middlemen often inflate prices and distort the market.

“Middlemen give the people of Abossey Okai a bad name. Come with your mechanic, discuss directly with dealers, and shop around for the best deal,” she urged.

She further pledged that the government will continue engaging stakeholders, including Sprinter bus spare parts dealers, to improve efficiency and ensure fair pricing across the automotive spare parts value chain.

Meanwhile, Chairman of the Abossey Okai Spare Parts Dealers Association, Henry Okyere Jnr., assured that the association is taking steps to sustain price reductions in line with market conditions.

“We are moving from store to store to educate our members that the dollar is stable and duties are down, so prices must also come down. Give us about 30 days to see how things work out,” he said.

Mr Bentil says GoldBod has had some influence on the local currency, but its effect accounts for less than 10 per cent of the cedi’s recent gains.

He attributed a significant part of the appreciation to broader global trends, particularly the weakening of the United States dollar.

“GoldBod has made some contribution, but its effect on the cedi is less than 10 per cent. Globally, the dollar itself has been depreciating,” said Mr Bentil, who is also a private legal practitioner.

Touching on President John Dramani Mahama’s positive approval ratings in his first year back in office, Mr Bentil said the development was not unexpected.

However, he cautioned that the real test of governance would emerge over the remaining years of the President’s term. “It is not surprising. The real challenges are what will happen in the next three years,” he noted.

His comments align with earlier observations by IMANI Africa’s Honorary Vice President, Bright Simons, who also acknowledged GoldBod’s role in supporting currency stability in 2025 but stressed that it was not the dominant factor.

Mr Simons explained that exchange rate movements are influenced by multiple variables, including commodity prices, noting that Ghana’s heavy reliance on gold exports means the more than 70 per cent rise in global gold prices in 2025 played a significant role in supporting the cedi.

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2. They have earned the right to be triumphant: some analysts say that the Cedi enjoyed its best performance in over 30 years.

3. Readers of this site know that some of us believe that the Cedi became overvalued due to over-interference by the BoG, but that is an entirely separate debate.

4. For now, the issue is that the Cedi’s managers promised to hold it down and they found the resources and will to do it. Full stop.

5. For me that is a political outcome. Political leaders stepping up to “political accountability”. In the katanomics framework that I swear by though, that’s not everything. There is also POLICY ACCOUNTABILITY.

6. In this context, policy accountability means ensuring that exchange rate policy actually supports economic development and social welfare, while obsessing as much over how stability is sustained as over which rate is desirable.

7. Let me illustrate this in the context of industrialisation. There is a whole lot of research that shows that most of the countries that succeeded in industrialisation (especially in Asia) did so by attracting multinational manufacturers who brought capital, technology, knowledge, and discipline.

8. Ghana, like some other African countries, also attracted multinational manufacturers after independence. Some of them had been around during colonial times but mostly in trading. They shifted focus to manufacturing when post-independence leaders emphasised industrial transformation.

9. They include the likes of Unilever, Nestle, Cadbury, Guinness, PZ, etc. Even some automotive and electronics companies came in. Philips, Sanyo, Volkswagen, Siemens, Leyland, Fiat, IIT, and Tata.

10. If Ghana (like Nigeria) can be said to have failed whereas Taiwan, Korea, Vietnam, and Thailand succeeded in boosting the presence of multinationals, then learning the ropes themselves, and finally building up local champions to take over, a big part of the picture is summed up in the behaviour of the exchange rate.

11. To probe further, I gathered and analysed 30 years of financial and some operational data on Unilever’s business in Ghana. I can’t deny that my choice of period wasn’t influenced by the timeline of the Cedi’s success being celebrated today.

12. I got interested in this question when I saw that Unilever Ghana now imports Rexona deodorant from other Group affiliates in Italy and then re-export them all over the region. Its numbers are looking good again after a massive plunge during the COVID years but performance now seems to be driven by trade instead of manufacturing.

13. In 2014, Unilever Ghana doubled down on expanding manufacturing plants to make more personal care and beauty products.

The company has been shifting in that direction for years, moving slowly away from its historic focus on food.

14. Per its corporate vision of that time, Ghana ought by now to have become a regional hub making the likes of Rexona deodorant for regional sales. That didn’t happen. Even good old “Omo” is now being imported from all over the place by traders.

15. So, I decided to treat Unilever as a lagging bellwether for industrialisation in Ghana to the extent that it is a “loyal multinational” that kept faith with Ghana through thick and thin.

16. The central issue, however, is: did Unilever succeed in growing and compounding value (for all its stakeholders) over its 60 years of manufacturing history?

17. The headline answer is that it saw negative hard-currency growth over 30 years.

18. Unilever’s revenue in 1994 was $111 million. During the oil boom era of 2010 to 2013, it hovered in $180 million territory (proving that divestments of group entities isn’t the primary issue.) In 2024, it barely crossed $65 million.

19. The revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is MINUS 1.74% over 30 years.

20. A part of the story is explained by the company being forced to abandon more complex industrial operations in textiles, timber processing, heavy machinery etc. over time. But a good deal of it is just pure capital erosion.

21. Shareholder equity in 1998 was $54.2 million. It peaked at $64.3 million and then sank to a mere $6.3 million in 2022. Today, it is around $15.9 million.

22. But it wasn’t due to underinvestment, either. The company’s returns actually crashed during macro-stress periods following considerable reinvestment.

2018 shows extraordinary capital expansion (likely retooling / plant upgrade cycle). Yet profitability collapsed after the expansion push. By 2020, Capex falls below depreciation, indicating:

• defensive retrenchment
• cash preservation mode

Then dividends go to zero in 2020, to reinforce the distress response. This is a company being punished for good behaviour. Any surprise then that despite Africa’s surging demographics, Unilever no longer lists a single African region amongst its top 24 strategic markets where it intends to drive growth and performance through its beauty, personal care, and wellness segments?

23. Meanwhile, average net margin over the 30-year period sat around 5.5%. In 2020, it went all the way down to MINUS 11% (ROE: minus 139%).

If you think the 2020 number is just a super-rare one-off due to the COVID-19 black swan, think again. Such periods of extreme stress in the Unilever Ghana business actually tends to recur. In 2003 – 2004, for instance, operating profit crashed by nearly 55%.

24. Consider that the Unilever Group has had an underlying operating margin for the last decade of more than 16%. Peer benchmark long-term margins for global manufacturers that compounded value in the successful Asian economies were typically in the 12% to 15%. In tech, it even exceeds 45%.

25. The capital market verdict has been equally sobering. Unilver’s market cap grew from $19 million in 2000 to over $700 million in 2008 then began a long descent to less than $120 million today.

26. The key insight in all of this is the use of the dollar to gauge returns. That is why it is an exchange rate phenomenon. For example, in Ghana Cedis, Unilever’s market cap has actually grown by over 50% since 2008. The tragicomic situation is that an overvalued exchange rate actually hurts Unilever’s steadily growing trade and re-export business. All they crave for is currency STABILITY.

29. The exchange rate makes Ghana a bad bet for global multinationals. Which is why their commitment has been so lukewarm over the years. Yet, the historical reality is that multinationals like Unilever have tended to treat workers much better and offered upskilling opportunities that the rest of the private sector rarely offer.

30. And therein lies the real policy challenge: sustaining a long-run STABLE exchange rate.

The currency has defied traditional seasonal trends of end-of-year depreciation, marking a dramatic turnaround that is providing much-needed relief to the nation’s private sector.

For decades, the final quarter in Ghana has typically been characterised by a “forex squeeze” as importers scramble for dollars to stock shelves for the festive season.

However, 2025 has seen a reversal of this pattern. Market data reveals that the local currency has not only held its ground but has actively clawed back value against major global benchmarks.

The Numbers: A Comparative Triumph

The scale of the cedi’s recovery is most evident when compared to the turbulent close of the previous year.

Last week, the interbank market opened with the dollar at GHȼ11.50, the pound at GHȼ15.36, and the Euro at GHȼ13.47.

By the start of this final week of December, those rates had sharpened to:

• US Dollar: GHȼ11.11
• British Pound: GHȼ15.00
• Euro: GHȼ13.08

This performance stands in stark contrast to December 2024, when the dollar traded at a staggering GHȼ14.71, the pound at GHȼ18.49, and the Euro at GHȼ15.33.

The Mechanics of Stability

Economic analysts point to a “perfect storm” of positive fiscal indicators that have cushioned the cedi. Primarily, Ghana is benefiting from a current account surplus, bolstered by a favourable balance in both capital and financial accounts.

This strengthens the nation’s external buffer, allowing the Bank of Ghana to maintain a more stable exchange rate regime.

Furthermore, two specific year-end factors have played a pivotal role:

1. Reduced Import Pressure: Many businesses completed their festive import cycles earlier in the year, leading to a decline in late-season forex demand.
2. The “Diaspora Effect”: Massive inflows of foreign exchange from Ghanaians living abroad—returning for the various “Beyond the Return” festivities—have significantly boosted the local supply of dollars, pounds, and euros.

Relief for the Business Community

For the Ghanaian business community, this stability is more than just a statistical victory; it is a lifeline for operational planning.

Importers, cross-border traders, and manufacturers who rely on predictable exchange rates can now price their goods with greater certainty.

“The improved stability is offering relief to businesses that rely heavily on predictable exchange rates for planning, pricing and cross-border transactions,” noted a market observer, highlighting that the trend is expected to lower the general cost of doing business in the first quarter of 2026.

As the year draws to a close, the sentiment among the trading public is one of cautious optimism. Individuals who have traditionally seen their purchasing power eroded by inflation and currency depreciation are hopeful that this trend signifies a permanent shift toward macroeconomic maturity.

Market Summary: Interbank Rates at a Glance

New data from the Bank of Ghana reveals that international gold prices rose from $2,641 per ounce in December 2024 to$4,054 in October 2025, representing a remarkable 53.5% surge. Realized prices, what Ghana actually receives, increased by 55.9% over the same period. This price increment transformed the country’s external accounts. Gold export earnings jumped from $10.3 billion at the end of 2024 to $15.2 billion by October 2025, making gold the dominant export, accounting for more than 65% of total receipts.

The contrast with cocoa, Ghana’s traditional economic backbone, is stark. International cocoa prices declined by 43.8% between December 2024 and October 2025, raising concerns about its sustainability and long-term export stability. Yet cocoa export earnings increased from US$1.9 billion to US$2.8 billion, a 45.36% rise and formed 12% of Ghana’s export revenue.

Understanding global commodity prices is critical because they directly determine how much foreign exchange Ghana earns. Higher export prices translate into increased revenues, which strengthen international reserves and, in turn, help stabilize the cedi. That dynamic has been clearly visible in 2025. The gold price boom injected substantial foreign exchange into the economy, easing pressure on the currency market and improving external balances.

The cedi, which closed 2024 at GH¢14.70 to the US dollar, appreciated to GH¢11.12 by November 2025, marking a rare 32.2% recovery.This appreciation coincided closely with the surge in gold export earnings and rising reserves. By September 2025, gross international reserves had increased to US$11.6 billion, providing a much-needed buffer against external shocks.

However, this gold-led relief comes with risks. Gold is among the world’s most volatile commodities, driven more by global geopolitical tensions, investor sentiment, and shifts in interest rates than by Ghana’s domestic economic fundamentals. A change in global risk appetite could cause prices to fall as sharply as they rose. Should that occur, Ghana’s export earnings, reserve position, and recent currency stability could quickly unravel.

Beyond macroeconomic risks, the environmental and social costs are mounting. Elevated gold prices appear to be intensifying illegal mining activities, commonly known as galamsey, which increasingly encroach on cocoa-growing areas. Rivers, farmlands, and forest reserves continue to suffer degradation as enforcement struggles to keep pace with the scale of illicit operations.

The current gold windfall therefore presents Ghana with a narrow but critical window of opportunity. It offers the fiscal and external breathing space needed to rebuild buffers, invest in economic diversification, and strengthen regulation across both the mining and agricultural sectors.

If underlying structural weaknesses remain unaddressed, this golden moment may ultimately be remembered not as a turning point, but as a temporary reprieve.Ghana’s economy is experiencing an unusual moment of relief and the lifeline is not cocoa or oil, it is gold. As global prices of the precious metal surged throughout 2025, Ghana unexpectedly found itself riding a mineral boom that has strengthened the cedi, boosted export earnings, and bolstered international reserves.

New data from the Bank of Ghana reveals that international gold prices rose from $2,641 per ounce in December 2024 to$4,054 in October 2025, representing a remarkable 53.5% surge. Realized prices, what Ghana actually receives, increased by 55.9% over the same period. This price increment transformed the country’s external accounts. Gold export earnings jumped from $10.3 billion at the end of 2024 to $15.2 billion by October 2025, making gold the dominant export, accounting for more than 65% of total receipts.

The contrast with cocoa, Ghana’s traditional economic backbone, is stark. International cocoa prices declined by 43.8% between December 2024 and October 2025, raising concerns about its sustainability and long-term export stability. Yet cocoa export earnings increased from US$1.9 billion to US$2.8 billion, a 45.36% rise and formed 12% of Ghana’s export revenue.

Understanding global commodity prices is critical because they directly determine how much foreign exchange Ghana earns. Higher export prices translate into increased revenues, which strengthen international reserves and, in turn, help stabilize the cedi. That dynamic has been clearly visible in 2025. The gold price boom injected substantial foreign exchange into the economy, easing pressure on the currency market and improving external balances.

The cedi, which closed 2024 at GH¢14.70 to the US dollar, appreciated to GH¢11.12 by November 2025, marking a rare 32.2% recovery.This appreciation coincided closely with the surge in gold export earnings and rising reserves. By September 2025, gross international reserves had increased to US$11.6 billion, providing a much-needed buffer against external shocks.

However, this gold-led relief comes with risks. Gold is among the world’s most volatile commodities, driven more by global geopolitical tensions, investor sentiment, and shifts in interest rates than by Ghana’s domestic economic fundamentals. A change in global risk appetite could cause prices to fall as sharply as they rose. Should that occur, Ghana’s export earnings, reserve position, and recent currency stability could quickly unravel.

Beyond macroeconomic risks, the environmental and social costs are mounting. Elevated gold prices appear to be intensifying illegal mining activities, commonly known as galamsey, which increasingly encroach on cocoa-growing areas. Rivers, farmlands, and forest reserves continue to suffer degradation as enforcement struggles to keep pace with the scale of illicit operations.

The current gold windfall therefore presents Ghana with a narrow but critical window of opportunity. It offers the fiscal and external breathing space needed to rebuild buffers, invest in economic diversification, and strengthen regulation across both the mining and agricultural sectors.

If underlying structural weaknesses remain unaddressed, this golden moment may ultimately be remembered not as a turning point, but as a temporary reprieve.

This is compared to US$553.6 million for the same period in 2024.

According to the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Ghana, the trade surplus increased to US$7.5 billion. This is on the back of a surge in gold and cocoa export earnings.

Private inward transfers remained high at U$6.0 billion at the end of the third quarter.

According to the Bank of Ghana, the current account surplus, together with favourable balances in the capital and financial accounts, translated into an overall balance of payment surplus of US$1.8 billion and supported an accumulation of reserve assets to US$11.4 billion in October 2025. This is equivalent to 4.8 months of import cover.

Reserves are also projected to increase further by the year-end.

The Central Bank said the reserve accumulation efforts have helped provide a cushion for the currency, with the cedi strengthening against the major trading currencies.

In the year to 21st November 2025, the cedi recorded an appreciation of 32.2% against the US dollar.

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Speaking during the 2026 Budget debate, the Abura Asebu Kwama said the previous administration left behind a currency that had undergone severe collapse.

“Mr Speaker, the Ghanaian Cedi suffered a catastrophic collapse under the watch of our colleagues on the other side,” he stated.

He argued that the depreciation was not marginal but historic, and that by the time the former government exited office, the local currency had lost substantial value against major international currencies.

According to him, this level of currency weakness created ripple effects across the economy, affecting businesses, investors and ordinary citizens alike.

Mr Kwakye Ofosu revealed that some forex bureaus were selling the US dollar for GH¢17 when the Minority was leaving office.

“By the time they left office, you could buy a dollar at GH¢17 in some forex bureaus,” he said, describing the situation as clear evidence that the outgoing administration mismanaged the currency.

He emphasised that such a dramatic collapse could not be overlooked or rewritten in political debates, noting that exchange rate performance is a measurable indicator of economic health.

“Economic analysis relies on metrics that are not subject to interpretation or opinion,” he stressed, arguing that the Minority cannot escape responsibility for the currency’s depreciation.

The Minister concluded by urging the Minority to approach the budget debate with honesty about the condition in which they left the economy.

He said acknowledging the truth is essential for constructive economic decisions.

“The record speaks for itself, and they must accept the consequences of their own stewardship,” he noted.

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Speaking at the Cedi@60 celebration organised by the Bank of Ghana in Accra under the theme “Sovereignty, Stability, and Economic Resilience,” President Mahama commended the Bank of Ghana and the Ministry of Finance for their efforts in stabilising the currency.

“I just want to say that the governor and all your team at the BoG, the Ministry of Finance, Ghanaians are grateful to you for the management of our currency,” he said.

He expressed renewed confidence in the cedi, noting, “I think that a lot of respect has returned to our currency. And it’s my hope that you will keep whatever you are doing to make sure that we don’t have excess liquidity, all those technical jargons like open market operations, whatever.”

President Mahama encouraged the central bank and economic managers to sustain their policies, saying, “Whatever you are doing, continue doing so, so that the cedi is respected.”

The Cedi@60 commemoration marks six decades since Ghana introduced its national currency in 1965, replacing the Ghanaian Pound, a milestone that reflects the country’s continued pursuit of economic independence and resilience.

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The local currency has appreciated by over 29% against the American greenback in the retail market since the beginning of the year, and is on course to appreciate against the dollar for the first time in its history.

It is presently going for GH¢12.00 to one dollar at the forex bureau and selling at GH¢10.92 on the interbank market.

“We expect most major Sub-Saharan African currencies to remain broadly stable through quarter 4 2025 and into 2026, extending the calm observed year-to-date. Indeed, we anticipate only a slight weakening of the Ghana cedi, Zambia kwacha, Nigeria Naira and South Africa rand by the end of 2025

The UK-based firm is, however, predicting about 8% depreciation of the cedi against the US dollar.

It is therefore predicting GH¢11.70 on the interbank market by the end of 2026.

“While modest depreciation against the US dollar is likely in the coming quarters, currencies will remain far more stable than during the volatility experienced in 2023 and 2024”, it mentioned.

“We expect continued softness in the US dollar and robust risk appetite for emerging market currencies to add tailwinds to Sub-Saharan Africa forex.”

It continues that the price of gold will remain elevated due to policy uncertainty in the US, anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and ongoing geopolitical tensions.

However, stronger reserves from high gold revenues, Bank of Ghana intervention and protecting export competitiveness will limit prolonged cedi gains.

Source: Joy Business

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In a feature titled “Cedi@60, Reflections of the Freight Forwarder,” the association described the cedi as “a currency that carries Ghana’s story” but warned that its current challenges require bold policy action and discipline across all sectors.

FFAG President, Francis Nyatepe-Attipoe, explained that the health of the cedi directly affects trade, logistics, and the cost of goods, stressing that freight forwarders “feel currency movements sooner than most.”

He identified exchange-rate volatility, dollar-based pricing, and port inefficiencies as key factors driving up shipping and clearance costs, fueling inflation, and weakening consumer purchasing power.

The association urged government and the Bank of Ghana to focus on five key priorities: ending routine dollar pricing for domestic logistics, accelerating port reforms, supporting non-traditional exports, providing foreign exchange risk management tools for forwarders, and ensuring greater transparency at the ports.

According to FFAG, stable ports, predictable policy, and disciplined pricing serve as “currency stabilizers,” not merely technical concerns.

The group pledged to support national stabilization efforts by training members in digital documentation, publishing quarterly logistics data, and promoting awareness of cedi-based invoicing.

“The cedi has traversed six decades of promise and pain,” Nyatepe-Attipoe said. “Stabilizing it is not the job of the central bank alone; it requires coordination, courage, and commitment from all actors in trade and finance.”

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