Luton have a 59.5% chance of relegation, according to data analysts Opta

Luton’s demoralising 5-1 thrashing by Brentford on Saturday keeps them right in the middle of the Premier League’s relegation battle.

While Burnley are building an unlikely survival bid after they defeated bottom side Sheffield United 4-1 on Saturday.

Defeat means the maximum points the Blades can now get this season is 31, a damning statistic considering no team has ever stayed up with fewer than 34 points.

But, despite their big win, Burnley have only a 1.5% chance of survival, according to data analysts Opta.

While Luton still have a 40.5% chance of still being a Premier League side next season.

BBC Sport breaks down the relegation battle statistics…

Premier League table
TeamPlayedPointsGDForm (past 5 games)
14. Brentford3435-7DDDWW
15. Crystal Palace3233-17DDLLW
16. Everton3227-16LLDWL
17. Nottingham Forest3326-16DDWLD
18. Luton3425-28LLWLL
19. Burnley3423-32DDLDW
20. Sheffield United3316-57DLDLL

Time running out for Burnley & Sheffield United?

The stats suggest Sheffield United and Burnley’s survival chances are very slim, with Opta giving them both approximately a 99% chance of relegation.

Opta’s model suggests the battle is really between Forest in 17th and Luton in 18th, with everyone else given less than 10% chance of survival or relegation depending on their current position.

Predicted Premier League final table – Opta
Team% chance of relegationCurrent position & points
14. Brentford0.414th – 35 points
15. Crystal Palace0.115th – 33 points
16. Everton8.716th – 27 points
17. Nottingham Forest32.917th – 26 points
18. Luton Town59.518th – 25 points
19. Burnley98.519th – 23 points
20. Sheffield United99.820th – 16 points

The run-in

Crystal Palace: 21 April v West Ham (home); 24 April v Newcastle (home); 27 April v Fulham (away); 6 May v Manchester United (home); 11 May v Wolves (away); 19 May v Aston Villa (home).

Brentford: 27 April v Everton (away); 4 May v Fulham (home); 11 May v Bournemouth (away); 19 May v Newcastle (home).

Everton: 21 April v Nottm Forest (home); 24 April v Liverpool (home); 27 April v Brentford (home); 4 May v Luton (away); 11 May v Sheffield Utd (home); 19 May v Arsenal (away).

Nottingham Forest: 21 April v Everton (away); 27 April v Manchester City (home); 4 May v Sheffield Utd (away); 11 May v Chelsea (home); 19 May v Burnley (away).

Luton Town: 28 April v Wolves (away); 4 May v Everton (home); 11 May v West Ham (away); 19 May v Fulham (home).

Burnley: 27 April v Manchester United (away); 4 May v Newcastle (home); 11 May v Tottenham (away); 19 May v Nottm Forest (home).

Sheffield United: 24 April v Manchester United (away); 27 April v Newcastle (away); 4 May v Nottm Forest (home); 11 May v Everton (away); 19 May v Tottenham (home).

But it’s complicated…

While Forest’s four-point deduction for breaching profit and sustainability rules (PSR) has been applied, they have appealed against the decision – with their hearing date set for Wednesday, 24 April.

Everton had a 10-point deduction imposed in November, which was reduced to six on appeal in February, for PSR breaches in the three-year period up to and including 2021-22.

However, in January, they were charged again over alleged breaches in their accounts up to 2022-23 and the outcome of that was another two-point deduction. Everton have appealed against the decision.

Despite previous concerns that this PSR process could run beyond the final day of the season, the Premier League have confirmed the outcome of Everton’s appeal will be known before the final day of the season.