Having won only 40% of the vote, the ANC needs to find a coalition partner to secure a majority in parliament which will support its choice of a president – unless it tries to go alone with a minority government.

One option would be to strike a deal with the second biggest party, the centre-right Democratic Alliance (DA), which won 22% of the vote.

However, this would be politically risky, as the DA’s critics accuse it of trying to protect the economic privileges the country’s white minority built up during the racist system of apartheid – a charge the party denies.

Alternatively, the ANC could work with two radical parties that broke away from it – former President Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party or Julius Malema’s Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF).

These three parties share the same constituency, the black majority, and their combined vote comes to 65%. Mr Malema has warned the ANC against forming a coalition that would “reinforce white supremacy” and be a “puppet of a white imperialist agenda”.

This was a clear reference to a coalition with the DA, whose policies are diametrically opposed to the ANC’s, but they both agree on the need to uphold the constitution that South Africa adopted at the end of apartheid in 1994.

President Cyril Ramaphosa has made it clear that any coalition agreement would have to be within the framework of the current constitution.

One of the big obstacles to a deal is the DA’s fierce opposition to the ANC’s efforts to create a welfare state – especially a government-funded national health service, which the DA rejects, saying it is too expensive andthreatens the future of the private health sector.

The DA believes in the free market, opposes a minimum wage, and wants to reduce red tape, saying this is the best way to improve the economy and raise living standards for all South Africans.

It is vehemently opposed to the ANC’s black economic empowerment policies, seeing them as discriminating against racial minorities while simply leading to the enrichment of the ANC’s business cronies.

Denying the allegations, the ANC has resolutely pursued these policies, arguing that they give black people a stake in the economy that they were excluded from during apartheid.

ANC chairman Gwede Mantashe has gone as far as to say the ANC’s black empowerment policies are non-negotiable, suggesting that he has ruled out a coalition with the DA.

But, according to some local media, President Ramaphosa is willing to enter into a coalition with the DA, believing that their policy differences could be overcome.

The ANC’s other option is to form a coalition with MK, which was the big winner of the election by securing third spot with 15% of the vote in the first election it contested.

But it is demanding a fresh poll, alleging that it got even more votes but the final result was rigged. The electoral commission has rejected the allegation, and MK has not yet presented any evidence for its claim.

The chasm between it and the ANC is wide, wider than with any other party, partly because of the personal animosity between Mr Zuma and Mr Ramaphosa, who ousted him as the country’s leader.

As well as demanding a new president, MK wants the constitution to be torn up so that South Africa becomes an “unfettered parliamentary democracy” – something the ANC has ruled out.

At first glance, this also rules out the EFF, as it too is demanding a constitutional amendment so that white-owned land can be expropriated without compensation.

Mr Malema, a former ANC youth leader who was expelled by the party in 2012 for fomenting divisions and bringing the party into disrepute, said the EFF was willing to work with the ANC in a coalition government. However, the party’s demand for land expropriation was a “cardinal principle”, and it would not join the government if the ANC rejects it.

The ANC and EFF together have 198 seats – just short of the 201 seats needed for a parliamentary majority, so a smaller party would have to be brought into a coalition.

Or they could team up with Mr Zuma’s MK, which also supports land expropriation, and says there is a need to distribute farmland on an “equal basis among the farming population”.

But to change the constitution, a two-thirds majority is needed and again the ANC, EFF and MK fall just short of the 267 seats needed – they have 256 seats between them.

While the ANC is opposed to constitutional amendments, it accepts that the current land-ownership patterns need to be tackled.

In an interview with South Africa’s Sunday Times newspaper, former President Kgalema Motlanthe, a close ally of Mr Ramaphosa, said the “land question” was a “source of national grievance”.

His comments suggest there could be room for agreement with the EFF, and possibly even MK, on the issue.

The DA strongly opposes a deal between its three rivals, saying it would be a “Doomsday Coalition” that would turn South Africa into a “Zimbabwe or Venezuela”.

“The Doomsday Coalition will plunge this country into ethnic and racial conflict the likes of which it has never witnessed before,” the party says.

But some ANC officials hold the opposite view – that stability would be threatened if MK is excluded, given its electoral success, which has made it the largest party in KwaZulu-Natal.

KwaZulu-Natal is South Africa’s second-most populous province, and is often described as the economic artery of the nation because of its ports.

It is also politically the most volatile province, with a history of violence – more than 300 people died in riots after Mr Zuma was sent to prison in 2021.

He was convicted of contempt of court for defying an order to co-operate with an official inquiry into corruption during his nine-year presidency, which ended in 2018.

ANC members in KwaZulu-Natal point out that with another court case looming – Mr Zuma is due to stand trial next year on charges of corruption over a 1999 arms deal – there is a real risk of a fresh wave of violence.

They therefore feel some sort of deal needs to be reached with him to draw a line under the past, and to recognise his status as a former president – especially as he has demonstrated that he commands 15% of the national vote.

ANC leaders in Gauteng – South Africa’s biggest and rich province – are said to favour a deal with the EFF, but their hand has been considerably weakened by the fact that the two parties do not have enough seats for a parliamentary majority.

That increases the prospect of an ANC-DA coalition, especially as it is favoured by the private sector as the best option to guarantee economic stability and to avoid capital flight.

But South Africa’s respected News24 website reports that the ANC is considering the option of forming a minority government, while signing a confidence-and-supply agreement with the DA, and the Inkatha Freedom Party, a mainly black party with support in KwaZulu-Natal, which has 17 seats.

The two would vote with the ANC on crucial issues such as the budget, while the ANC would have to constantly lobby them – or other parties – to support it on other legislation.

This could help the ANC out of its dilemma of choosing a coalition partner, and it may also suit the DA, as a coalition with the ANC could cause it to lose support to parties to its right.

However, there is a risk that a minority government could lead to political instability and “transactional politics” – opposition MPs demanding or being offered bribes to back ANC-sponsored legislation.

It is still too early to say what will happen. All the parties are still considering their options, but many South Africans are hoping that by the time parliament convenes, within a fortnight, there will at least be an outline deal on what the next government will look like.

The ANC has dominated South African politics since winning in the first post-apartheid elections 30 years ago.

The ANC was braced for a disappointing outcome, predicted by polls before Wednesday’s elections, but the final results are even more sobering. It won 40 percent of the vote, falling from 57% in 2019.

Tessa Dooms, a director at Rivonia Circle, a think tank in South Africa, said it was a historic result that diminished the ANC’s three decades hold on power.

“The election in South Africa is an important watershed moment that fundamentally changes politics,” she said.

According to the constitution, the party with the largest vote has two weeks from the result confirmation to form a new government.

The ANC will now have to form a coalition government with one or more opposition parties for the first time, to remain in power.

South Africa remains one of the most unequal countries in the world, with 32% unemployed, along with soaring levels of crime. Immense frustrations with water and electricity shortages as well as corruption have led to growing criticism of the ANC government.

For many, the initial progress that followed liberation from white-minority rule has not been sustained.

Despite significant achievements in Africa’s most industrialized nation, inequalities inherited from the apartheid regime have remained, and over the last decade, even worsened.

The party’s vote share has fallen by a few percent in every election since 2004 — exacerbated by a generation divide, with younger voters born after apartheid, the so-called “born frees”, less likely to vote for the ANC.

“On the one hand, we overcame apartheid as a structural force,” Dooms said, “On the other hand, we have not actually changed many of the dynamics. We inherited inequality of one form, and we have doubled down on inequality in South Africa and another form going forward and it has hurt us.”

But in this election, the gradual decline in ANC support over the last 20 years grew more dramatic, Dooms said. “The ANC has in some ways imploded in the form of its former president, Jacob Zuma. The rise of the MK is certainly the biggest story of this election.”

The fall and rise of Zuma

The controversial, convicted former ANC leader’s new party, the uMkhonto weSizwe party, or MK, was the story of the election. MK was named after the disbanded military wing of the ANC, and registered just six months ago. But in a short space of time the party has soared above expectations.

The party was bolstered by many former ANC supporters and a base of largely poor and ethnically Zulu South Africans who followed Zuma’s lead and left the ANC. It is now the third-largest party in South Africa, with almost 15%.

It caps a dramatic fall and rise of the 82-year-old leader. While a conviction bars him from being elected into parliament, as leader of the MK, he could now be a significant player in the negotiations to form a new coalition government, and could use his power to attempt to avoid a further conviction.

Zuma was forced to resign from the presidency in 2018, and was convicted in 2021 of failing to present himself at a corruption trial against him. He is also due to be tried again next year for corruption in an alleged arms deal in 1999.

The populist leader has accused his successor, President Cyril Ramaphosa, of being behind his legal troubles. Now Zuma has inflicted a major defeat on his rival, who is likely to face pressure from some in his party to resign.

Zuma’s daughter and MK member, Duduzile Sambudla, told NPR, “The MK is not willing to go into a coalition with the ANC of Ramaphosa,” she said, implying that a coalition would be possible without Ramaphosa.

The MK’s success against the ANC is most significant in South Africa’s second-most populous province, KwaZulu Natal (KZN). The party won almost 46% of the vote, against nearly 18% for the ANC in a landslide result.

Liberation icon Nelson Mandela first voted at the Ohlange High Schoolin Durban, KZN, in 1994, when he became president. Thirty years later, many voters at the same polling unit echoed a similar sentiment: frustration with the state of the country, and a desire for change.

Nqobile Khumalo, 24, arrived at the polling station shortly after polls opened at 7 a.m. on Wednesday and was voting for the first time. “We just really hope that there will be change,” she said. Tracy Bongiwe Zondo, 39, went further. “Before now I was voting for the ANC but now I’m voting for MK because I need a change in our community,” she said.

President Ramaphosa’s future is now an open question. He is the first ANC president to lose the party’s majority and turnout has fallen to 58.59%.

The ANC’s head of elections, Nomvula Mokonyane, told NPR Ramaphosa would not step down.

“Nobody’s going to resign,” she said. But Ramaphosa faces a major challenge to survive the duration of his second term, if he manages to form a government that based on the results, which will likely be divisive.

New era of coalition government

Professor David Everett at Wits School of Governance said the result forcing the ANC to partner with another party was a positive step for the country. “I think the ANC suddenly having to be accountable rather than having majority after majority will be an exceptionally good thing for South Africa,” he said.

Coalition governments have long existed on the local level in South Africa, but never at the federal level, and the makeup of an ANC-coalition government is now the big question.

The party could align with the official opposition Democratic Alliance, a center-right party, largely led and supported by the white minority in South Africa which won 21.72%. “There are two factions in the ANC. The one led by President Ramaphosa is much more concerned with the state of the economy and quite likely to look to the Democratic Alliance,” Everett said. But the move could alienate many in the ANC’s other faction who would consider it a red line.

The ANC could also align with the MK, giving Zuma influence in the government, or with the radical left-wing Economic Freedom Fighters party, led by another former ANC youth leader, Julius Malema. The party came fourth with 9% of the vote, also affected by larger-than-predicted support for the MK party, some experts said.

But a coalition with either or both parties, which largely emerged from the ANC, could prove volatile, amid the divisions that led the parties to breakaway in the first place. “To go into a coalition with your sworn enemies in the EFF and MK, you are asking for politics to dominate everything, as they try to wreck the ANC even more and take it over,” Everett said.

The ANC transitioned from a beloved liberation movement to a political force that has dominated South African politics. But its hold on South African politics is diminishing, as it struggles to contain its divisions and address the country’s major challenges.

South African politics may have just changed permanently, from an era of one party rule. Within the country’s proportional representation system, more parties and independent candidates than ever are forming and providing an alternative — a reality the ANC must now grapple with.

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The reports suggest deepening ties between President Zuma and the controverisal Gupta business family. But the president’s spokesman has dismissed them as an utter fabrication. Pressure on Mr Zuma has been mounting in recent months because of corruption scandals, cabinet sackings and his handling of the economy. Senior members of Mr Zuma’s governing ANC this weekend tabled a motion of no confidence against him – which has been put to a closed-door meeting of the party’s National Executive Committee.

It is the second time in six months that party rebels have mounted such a challenge.

Under pressure

The BBC’s Karen Allen in Johannesburg says the ANC now looks like it’s in permanent firefighting mode. Emails between President Zuma’s son Duduzane and figures from a company owned by the controversial Gupta family – who reportedly wield considerable influence over Mr Zuma – include a letter to the Abu Dabi royal family, our correspondent says.

“I am happy to inform you that my family has decided to make the UAE a second home,” the president is quoted as saying. “It will be a great honour for me and my family to gain your patronage during our proposed residency in the UAE.”

This opens up questions as to whether this is part of an exit strategy, with Mr Zuma’s party appearing to be turning against him, our correspondent adds. The reports were quickly dismissed by the presidential spokesman as “utter fabrication and mischief-making”.

Meanwhile, it is thought that Zuma loyalists could well block any no confidence motion on technical grounds.

However, it echoes a similar motion from opposition parties being pushed through parliament which is now being examined by the constitutional court. The president’s successor is expected to be selected at a major conference of the ANC’s top brass in December.

Until then the party looks set to limp from crisis to crisis, our correspondent says.
Mr Zuma’s allies say he will remain in office until his term ends in 2019, but evidence of his unpopularity seems to be growing. He was forced to abandon a May Day rally this year after he was booed by workers demanding his resignation.

His ex-wife Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma and Deputy President Cyril Rampahosa are vying to succeed him.

The ANC is expected to pick a new leader in December and the winner will likely become South Africa’s next president when elections are held in 2019.

Dlamini-Zuma has also been publicly endorsed by the ANC Women’s League although the presidential campaign has not officially started.

Dlamini Zuma’s term as AU Commissioner ended in February.

In her final speech as Chair of the African Union Commission she promised to continue her work on the continent by remaining a soldier for the African course.

President Jacob Zuma has repeatedly been accused of corruption and his ties to a family of local tycoons has been brought under scrutiny.

His decision to endorse the ex-wife has been criticised by some opposition members who see in Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma a “preferred candidate” capable of shielding the ex-husband from looming graft charges after he is out of office.