Fitch Solutions is projecting a decline in Ghana’s inflation from an average of 22.9% in 2024 to 18.8% in 2025, citing easing global oil prices and improved food supply as key drivers.
According to the UK-based research firm, lower oil prices will enable the National Petroleum Authority (NPA) to contain or reduce retail pump prices, relieving pressure on consumer spending.
“Household consumption will remain the engine of economic growth in the coming quarters as inflationary pressures ease,” it stated. “We forecast that inflation will moderate from an average of 22.9% in 2024 to 18.8% in 2025.”
It also highlighted improved agricultural imports, such as wheat and rice, as factors likely to drive down food costs. Additionally, elevated gold prices are expected to bolster the Bank of Ghana’s reserves, strengthening the cedi and helping to limit imported inflation.
These factors, Fitch said, will ease pressure on household budgets and support private consumption, which is expected to grow by 4.0% and contribute 3.2 percentage points to Ghana’s economic growth in 2025.
Inflation to Average 15.2% in 2026
The research agency further anticipates inflation to moderate to an average of 15.2% in 2026, providing a further boost to consumer activity.
Fitch Solutions noted that Ghana’s current US$3.0 billion Extended Credit Facility programme with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is expected to conclude in May 2026. Historically, the end of such programmes has led to fiscal loosening and increased domestic demand.
“For example, following the conclusion of the previous IMF programme in 2019, the budget deficit widened to 4.1% of GDP from 3.4% in 2018, contributing to an increase in total domestic demand growth from 5.7% to 7.3%,” the report said.
Source : Joy Business
