Ghana’s economy is projected to grow by more than 4.8% in 2025, according to IC Research in its latest paper titled “Ghana’s Q1 2025 Real GDP Growth: Green Shoots in Tight Soil.”
This projection is based on solid growth momentum recorded in the first quarter of 2025, despite fiscal restraints, and a much-improved outlook for the rest of the year.
“We foresee FY2025 overall growth likely above our upper-band forecast of 4.8%. However, we opt to keep our forecast on hold within the current range of 3.8%–4.8% as we await the extent of fiscal drag on Q2 2025 performance,” the report stated.
Ghana’s economy showed early signs of potential outperformance in 2025 as real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth exceeded expectations in the first quarter. Real GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, up from 4.9% in the same period in 2024.
Excluding the oil and gas sector—which contracted during the period—non-oil real GDP grew impressively by 6.8% year-on-year in Q1 2025.
“This reflected strong underlying momentum in the real economy and has significantly raised our optimism about Ghana’s growth outlook for FY2025 despite the downside risks from fiscal tightening,” IC Research noted.
Growth Drivers
The key sectors that drove growth in the first quarter included Fishing (16.6%), ICT (13.1%), Finance and Insurance (9.3%), Transport and Storage (8.6%), Trade (7.1%), Crops and Cocoa (6.7%), and Manufacturing (6.6%).
Agriculture Sector
The agriculture sector recorded a surprise 6.6% growth in Q1 2025, largely due to a strong performance in the crops sub-sector, which grew by 6.7% year-on-year. This growth is believed to be contributing to the decline in food inflation since February 2025.
“We note that the impressive performance in the crops sector is yet to reflect the government’s ongoing investment in agriculture with the target to support lower food inflation,” the report observed.
The government allocated GHS1.5 billion in the 2025 budget to support grain, vegetable, and poultry production under the Agriculture for Economic Transformation Agenda.
“We expect these public investments to start yielding results during the upcoming crop harvest in late Q3 2025, potentially sustaining the strong growth in agriculture for FY2025,” IC Research added.
Industry Sector
The industry sector experienced slower growth of 3.4%, largely due to a 22.1% year-on-year contraction in the oil and gas sub-sector. This decline also dragged mining and quarrying growth down to 1.4% (from 12.8% in Q1 2024).
Construction growth also weakened significantly to 1.5%, compared to 8.2% a year earlier.
“We believe the slower growth rate in the construction sub-sector reflects the restraint on public spending in Q1 2025, as the new administration paused claims payment to contractors pending the audit of inherited arrears,” IC Research stated.
Services Sector
The services sector grew by 5.9% year-on-year in Q1 2025, compared to 4.7% in the same period of 2024. Growth was driven by strong performance in consumer trade, the digital economy, transport and storage, and financial services.
As a result, the sector contributed 2.54 percentage points to overall growth in Q1 2025, up from 2.04 percentage points in Q1 2024.