Fitch Ratings has indicated that strong nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, fiscal consolidation, ongoing debt restructuring, and a significantly larger-than-anticipated appreciation of the Ghana cedi in recent months will contribute to a reduction in public debt to 60% of GDP in 2025 and 2026.
This marks a significant decline from 72% in 2024 and a peak of 93% in 2022, the year Ghana announced its intention to default.
However, the UK-based ratings agency noted that this projected figure still compares unfavourably with its 2026 ‘B’ median forecast of 51%.
The announcement follows Fitch’s decision to upgrade Ghana’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) from ‘Restricted Default’ (RD) to ‘B-‘. The outlook was also changed to Stable.
“We expect the interest/revenue ratio to remain broadly stable, at 26% in 2025 and 2026, from 25% in 2024 and a peak of 48% in 2021,” the agency stated. “This will be driven by a declining stock of debt, offset by resumption of interest payments on external commercial debt and a step-up in coupon payments on the DDEP, with the weighted average coupon on the DDEP bonds increasing to 9.1% in 2025 from 5.4% in 2024.”
Fitch, however, noted that the interest/revenue ratio remains a key constraint on Ghana’s rating, as it is still above the ‘B’ and ‘C’/’D’ medians of 13% and 16%, respectively.
Current Account Surpluses and Reserve Build-Up
Fitch also projected that Ghana’s current account surplus will narrow from a record high of 4.3% of GDP in 2024 to 1.1% in 2026. This is based on expectations of increased imports driven by economic growth and a decline in key export prices.
This outlook marks a significant improvement from the pre-default period, which was characterized by large current account deficits. It also compares favourably with the ‘B’ median deficit of 3% of GDP in 2026.
According to Fitch, this trend will support Ghana in accumulating foreign reserves equivalent to 3.9 months of current external payments in 2026—up from 2.6 months in 2024 and 1.6 months in 2022. This remains just below the ‘B’ median of 4.9 months for 2024.
Fitch further highlighted that the evolution of gold prices was a major contributor to the current account surplus in 2024 and will continue to play a crucial role in shaping Ghana’s external balance performance.