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Finding solution for Ghana’s penalty curse: The ‘why’ and ‘how’ from a journalist’s perspective

November 29, 2019 10:35 am

PENALTY

The dictionary defines it as punishment imposed for breaking a law, rule, or contract.

For example: “the charge carries a maximum penalty of ten years’ imprisonment”

In sports and games: penalty is a handicap imposed on a player or team for infringement of rules.

A penalty kick (commonly known as a penalty or a PK) is a method of restarting play in association football, in which a player is allowed to take a single shot on the goal while it is defended only by the opposing team’s goalkeeper. It is awarded when a foul punishable by a direct free kick is committed by a player in their own penalty area. The shot is taken from the penalty mark, which is 12 yards (11 m) from the goal line and centred between the touch lines.

In practice, penalty kicks result in goals more often than not, even against the best and most experienced goalkeepers. This means that penalty awards are game-changing decisions and often decisive, particularly in low-scoring games.

Similar kicks are made in a penalty shootout in some tournaments to determine which team is victorious after a drawn match; these are governed by slightly different rules.

Penalty shoot-out is the ultimate test of nerve and technique. It’s football reduced to its simplest state – ball, kicker and goalkeeper. Given those 3 variables, if you’re a professional player good enough to represent your country, then you should be able to score with a shot from 12 yards out with only the goalkeeper to beat. But those odds don’t always compute. So why does this moment turn the world’s best into park players, with some of them incapable of finding the target?

The penalty record-setters

The average record of converting penalties during a normal match is 78%, a figure that drops to 74% when a shoot-out comes around. The extra pressure of the shoot-out, added to the fact that players who are not used to the task of taking penalties often step up, is behind this drop.

England has the worst record in shoot-outs of any major football nation, losing 6 out of 7 in big tournaments. There are a few reasons behind this wretched record, not least the fact that penalty failure is a vicious cycle: the more you lose, the more you keep losing. An academic study showed that international teams who had lost 1 shoot-out were more likely to lose the next one – even if all the players from the previous defeat had changed.

Germany is at the opposite end of the penalty spectrum to England in terms of penalty success, with a winning percentage of 83% and a conversion rate of 93%, making it one of the most reliable of spot-kick nations.

There are 2 reasons for this. Traditionally, German players excel in 3 areas of the game: technique, practice and mental toughness. The nation has always valued goalkeepers too.

“People in Germany are not so emotional and they see the value of keeping clean sheets,” explained Hans-Jorg Butt, a former Germany goalkeeper who also took penalties. “For us, it’s enough to win 1-0; the role of the goalkeeper is a more valued one in Germany than elsewhere.”

TEN TIPS TO HELP PENALTY SUCCESS

1. Win the toss and kick first

The team that kicks first is 60% more likely to go on to win the shoot-out – in part because the conversion rate for penalties taken ‘to stay in the shoot-out’ drops to 62% in major tournaments, while the conversion rate for penalties taken to win the shoot-out rises to 92%. It shows the difference between thinking about positive, as opposed to negative, consequences when taking a penalty.

2. Don’t put your best player last

You don’t want to lose the shoot-out before your best kicker gets a shot at the goal, which might happen if he is placed fifth. Studies that assigned an ‘importance variable’ to each penalty show the first and fourth penalties have the most significance in terms of affecting the outcome so getting the order right is vital.

3. Wait for the goalkeeper to move first

Across a number of penalty examples over a long period of time, the numbers show this method is a more successful strategy than blasting the ball regardless of where the goalkeeper goes – though technically it’s harder to pull off.

4. Make the kicker wait…⁵
Studies show that if a goalkeeper makes a penalty taker wait for between 1.7 to 4.5 seconds before the referee blows his whistle, penalty conversion rates drop to 61% in major tournaments.

5. Player status doesn’t matter

Soccer superstars Roberto Baggio, Michel Platini, Lionel Messi, Diego Maradona, David Beckham, and Cristiano Ronaldo have all missed big penalties at the peak of their careers. Studies have shown that players of ‘high status’ have a worse record in penalties than players who are merely ‘part of the team’. The pressure on these players is greater, and they have more to lose if they miss.

6. Scoring the last goal helps

Momentum plays a big part in the shoot-out, as the team that scored last in the game has a 62% chance of going on to win on penalties.

7. Body language matters

Studies show if a player is successful when the scores are level, and he celebrates with both arms extended out, his team is 82% more likely to go on and win the shoot-out.

8. Don’t rush it

Based on analysis of reaction times from the referee blowing his whistle to the player beginning his run-up, England players waited an average 0.28 seconds before starting their approach. This is quicker than any other nation, and not far off Usain Bolt, whose average reaction time to the starting gun is 0.17 seconds. Waiting just one second can make a big difference.

9. Don’t overthink it on the walk

Overthinking a task can lead to a negative result, so players need to have a strategy for what to think about on the dreaded walk to the spot. Focusing on the process – the routine of execution – rather than the outcome is a good start.

10. Goalkeepers can stay central

Nearly 30% of all penalties go down the middle of the goal, but goalkeepers only stay central 6% of the time. One international goalkeeper, who will be in action at Euro 2016, told me he dives for penalties as otherwise it looks like he’s not trying.

Why are penalty shootouts controversial?

Before 1978, when a FIFA World Cup game in the knockout phase was tied at the end of extra time, the winner was decided with a coin toss. Penalty shootouts were introduced to make the outcome less of a lottery. But they are still often seen as having more to do with chance than which team is the stronger competitor.

Under the current rules, the referee tosses a coin and the winner can decide whether to take the first or the second kick. After that, teams A and B take five penalties each in an alternating pattern, that is, according to the sequence AB|AB|AB|AB|AB. If the scores are level after five rounds, the sudden death stage starts in the same order AB with additional rounds of one kick each until the tie is broken.

This rule can be called ABAB.

Since most penalties are successful, the player taking the second kick is usually under greater mental pressure, especially from the third or fourth penalties onward, when a miss could mean the immediate loss of the match. Statistical evidence shows that the team kicking first wins in around 60% of the cases. Since this fact is widely recognized, the team winning the coin toss almost always chooses to take the first kick.

What other options are football authorities considering?

In order to reduce this bias, football’s rule-making body IFAB (International Football Association Board) decided to test an alternative system called AB|BA, when the five penalties are kicked according to the sequence AB|BA|AB|BA|AB. The trial was initially scheduled at the 2017 UEFA European Under-17 Championship and the 2017 UEFA Women’s Under-17 Championship in May 2017 and was extended to the 2017 UEFA European Under-19 Championship and the 2017 UEFA Women’s Under-19 Championship in June 2017.

The first implementation of the new system was a penalty shootout in the Women’s Under-17 Championship semi-final between Germany and Norway on 11 May 2017. It was also applied in the 2017 FA Community Shield, where Arsenal, the winner of the 2017 FA Cup Final, had won an AB|BA penalty shootout against Chelsea, champions of the 2016–17 Premier League.

The Ghana situation

Twenty years ago, penalty kicks were regarded by coaches and players as little more than a lottery. Most teams at the 1998 World Cup, like Glenn Hoddle’s England, did not even practice them at all, believing that winning or losing largely depended on whether luck was with you on the night.

But two decades on from England’s shootout exit against Argentina, the 21st century data-driven world of football is very different. Penalty-shootouts are decided by hard science, not luck.

It has been over three decades since the Black Stars won a penalty shootout -1982. It also happens to be the last time the team won a trophy.

When the local Black Stars won a penalty shootout in early rounds of the WAFU Nations Cup, there were expectations that the hoodoo had finally been broken but the defeat to Senegal has reignited conversations about it.

Some says it’s down to luck, others hold that shootouts are science and only countries who invest in it usually come top in such contests.

Ghana Men’s Soccer teams and Club’s Penalty performance in History on tournaments and Qualifications.

U-17 Men’s Soccer team

Since 1991, five Penalty kicks have been played by the Black Starlets. Out of that, they have won two and lost three.

U-20 Men’s Soccer team

Since 1989, ten penalty Kicks have been played by the Black Satellites. Out of that, they have won four and lost six.

U-23 (Olympic team)

Since 1977, seven Penalty kicks have been played by the Black Meteors. Out of that, they have won four, lost three.

Both Local Black Stars and Senior National Soccer Team.

Since 1973, both teams have played a total of eighteen penalty kicks, they have won seven and lost eleven.

National team’s Overall performance (U-17, U-20, U-23 and both Local and Main Black Stars

Forty penalty kicks deciders have been held during competitions. Seventeen have been won and twenty-three lost.

Clubs at a competition Since 1971.

Asante Kotoko

They have played twelve penalty Kicks. They have won only one and lost eleven.

Hearts of Oak

They have played nine penalty Kicks in total. They have won five and lost four.

Cornerstone

They have played two penalty kicks. They have won all two.

Hasaacas

They have played two penalty Kicks. They won one and lost one.

Ashanti Gold Sc

They have played two penalty Kicks but unfortunately lost all two.

Great Olympics