Ratings agency, Fitch is raising its 2026 annual average crude oil price forecast to US$70 a barrel from US$63 (Brent).
According to the UK-based firm, it assumes that the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed for about a month.
However, it anticipates oil prices falling to the mid-US$60s by the second-half of 2026.
“We raised our 2026 annual average oil price forecast to US$70 a barrel from US$63 (Brent). This assumes that the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed for about a month, but oil prices then fall to the mid-US$60s by 2H26 [second-half]. This revision has not had a major impact on our base-case economic forecasts”, it stressed in its latest report.
But an adverse scenario – in which oil prices rise to US$100/barrel and remain, it said there would be a significant global supply shock.
It warned that this will reduce world Gross Domestic Product by 0.4% after four quarters and adding 1.2-1.5 percentage points to inflation in Europe and the US.
Oil prices pared gains on Thursday 12th March, 2026m after Brent crude briefly touched $100 a barrel, as attacks were reported on three more cargo ships in the Persian Gulf and traders reacted to the IEA’s move to release government stockpiles.
International benchmark Brent crude futures with May 2026 delivery traded nearly 4% higher at $95.62 per barrel at around 8:05 a.m. London time (4:05 a.m. ET), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures with April 2026 delivery rose 3.5% to $90.32.
Three foreign ships were struck off the coast of Iraq and the United Arab Emirates overnight, authorities said, the latest in a flurry of incidents in or near the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.
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