The Bank of Ghana (BoG) is expected to resume monetary easing in the third quarter of 2025, but at a measured pace, Fitch Solutions has predicted.
According to the UK-based firm, the central bank will cut its policy rate by 200 basis points to 26.00% by the end of 2025, and follow with a further 300 basis points reduction to 23.00% in 2026.
“Inflation easing gradually, supported by exchange rate stability and lower energy prices, we forecast a cumulative 200bps [basis points] reduction in the policy rate to 26.00% by end-2025, followed by a further 300bps cut to 23.00% in 2026,” it noted in its latest report.
In March 2025, the BoG surprised markets with a 100 basis points hike in the policy rate, bringing it to 28.00%. It marked the first Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting under new Governor Johnson Asiama, who has taken a more hawkish stance than his predecessor, Dr. Ernest Addison.
The MPC, at the time, stressed the need for inflation to become “firmly anchored” before any consideration of rate cuts.
Policy Rate To Remain Steady For Now – Databank Research
Meanwhile, Databank Research has projected that the BoG will likely maintain the policy rate at 28% in the short term, with any potential cut depending on continued progress in reducing inflation.
The investment firm noted that the MPC is expected to adopt a wait-and-see approach to assess the impact of earlier tightening measures.
The MPC will hold its next quarterly sitting from May 21 to May 23, 2025.
“Barring internal or external shocks, our projections suggest a steady disinflation path, likely settling between 17–19% by mid-year on base effects and stable prices,” Databank stated.
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