The Bank of Ghana is likely to maintain a cautious, data-dependent stance amid inflation and geopolitical uncertainty.
According to Deloitte, inflation is expected to rise gradually towards the 6%+/–10% target band, with oil prices, utility tariffs and exchange-rate pressures posing upside risks.
In its analysis of Ghana’s policy rate, the professional services firm, however, said gold and cocoa exports should support the external sector, although reserves and the cedi remain exposed to energy payments and global volatility.
Additionally, fiscal consolidation, prudent liquidity management and strong banking supervision will remain essential for macroeconomic stability.
The Bank of Ghana, early in July 2026, maintained the policy rate at 14.0%, citing headline inflation projected to rise gradually into the target band, saying, Potential upward adjustments in utility tariffs, together with escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the associated increase in crude oil prices, present upside risks to the inflation outlook.
Concerns
On the downside, continued fiscal consolidation and an appropriately calibrated monetary policy stance should help moderate these risks.
Other concerns raised by Deloitte were renewed volatility in the energy market due to heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Again, the rising inflation expectations and core inflation measures.
It also mentioned the possibility of tighter global financing conditions with an adverse pass-through effect on the trade and financing channels of developing economies like Ghana.
There is also renewed forex demand pressure and further depletion of the external buffers as a result of elevated energy-related payments.
Positive Implications of MPC
- Regarding the positive side of the unchanged policy rate, Deloitte said there is going to be a positive real return on investment.
- It said the MPC has significant headroom to adjust interest rates despite rising inflation.
- “A high-interest-rate environment attracts FPIs, which will contribute to an accretion of the external reserves”.
Negative Implications of MPC
- Deloitte alluded that a high-interest-rate environment implies tight financing conditions.
- It added that stifling expansion plans, especially within the Small and Medium Enterprises space, which struggles to access cheap funds will become a major issue.
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