A new poll by Global InfoAnalytics has projected a strong lead for National Democratic Congress (NDC) Chairman Johnson Asiedu Nketia in a hypothetical 2028 presidential race against former Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia.
According to the survey, Asiedu Nketia would secure 54.1% of the vote compared to 37.1% for Dr. Bawumia in a scenario where Kennedy Agyapong contests as a candidate for the “Base.”
The poll noted that if Kennedy Agyapong were not in the race, Dr. Bawumia’s support could rise to about 42%.
The survey indicates that Dr. Bawumia would retain 88.9% of those who voted for him in the 2024 presidential election. However, 6.1% of his 2024 supporters would switch to Asiedu Nketia, while 5.8% would back Kennedy Agyapong.
On the NDC side, Asiedu Nketia is projected to retain 83.3% of President John Dramani Mahama’s 2024 voters. The poll, however, suggests that 9.2% of Mahama’s supporters would cross over to Dr. Bawumia, giving the former Vice President a three-percentage-point advantage among crossover voters. Another 2.8% would support Kennedy Agyapong, while 2.9% would opt for other candidates.
Among eligible voters who did not participate in the 2024 general election, the poll found both Asiedu Nketia and Dr. Bawumia virtually tied, each attracting about 34% of potential support.
In the country’s swing regions, Asiedu Nketia was found to have a slight advantage. He is projected to attract 9.8% of Dr. Bawumia’s 2024 voters, while Dr. Bawumia would win 7.4% of President Mahama’s previous supporters, giving Asiedu Nketia a net crossover advantage of 2.4 percentage points.
The survey also found that Asiedu Nketia would retain 84% of Mahama’s 2024 supporters in the swing regions, while Dr. Bawumia would hold on to 83.3% of his previous voters. Among those who did not vote in the swing regions, Asiedu Nketia leads with 38.2%, compared to 34.9% for Dr. Bawumia.
In the Akan-dominated regions, however, Dr. Bawumia performs better. The poll projects that he would win 7.5% of Mahama’s 2024 voters, while Asiedu Nketia would attract 4.5% of Dr. Bawumia’s supporters, giving the former Vice President a three-point crossover advantage in those regions.
Dr. Bawumia is also projected to retain 89.5% of his 2024 voters in the Akan regions, while Asiedu Nketia retains 86% of Mahama’s supporters. Among eligible voters who did not vote in 2024, Dr. Bawumia leads with 34.9%, compared to 30.2% for Asiedu Nketia.
The polling firm noted that increasing support among first-time and previously inactive voters could prove crucial to the outcome of the 2028 presidential election, particularly in the Akan regions where Dr. Bawumia currently holds an advantage among non-voters.
