The Director-General of the Ghana Meteorological Agency (GMet), Dr Eric Asuman, has urged Ghanaians to better understand how weather forecasts work, stressing that forecasts are based on probabilities and cannot guarantee that rain will occur every time.
Speaking on Asempa FM’s Ekosii Sen show, Dr Asuman said many people wrongly assume that a weather forecast is a certainty, leading to disappointment whenever predicted rainfall does not occur.
“Forecasts are not always 100% accurate. They are based on probabilities and do not necessarily mean that it will rain under all circumstances. Ghanaians should understand that forecasts are simply predictions of the likelihood of something happening,” he said.
According to him, weather forecasts are generated using scientific models that estimate the probability of rainfall rather than guaranteeing its occurrence.
“People need to understand the forecast to know the value they will place on it,” he stated.
Using the day’s forecast as an example, Dr Asuman explained that GMet had predicted moderate rainfall, but only light showers were experienced.
“Like today, we predicted moderate rain. It only drizzled a little, so it wasn’t moderate, but there were drops of rain,” he said.
He added that the agency had indicated there was only a 40 per cent probability of rainfall, meaning there was also a significant chance that it might not rain.
“We also said there was a 40 per cent chance of rain and a 60 per cent chance that it would not rain,” he explained.
Dr Asuman stressed that weather forecasting is inherently probabilistic because it is based on natural processes that can change over time.
“People need to know that forecasting is probabilistic. It is not 100 per cent because it is nature,” he said.
He noted that a forecast of rain should not be interpreted as a certainty that rainfall will occur.
“When we say we expect rain, it doesn’t mean it is definitely going to rain,” he stated.
The GMet Director-General further explained that weather conditions are monitored continuously, which is why forecasts are updated regularly.
“That is why we are always updating the forecasts. If conditions change, we will announce it,” he added.
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