As Ghana prepares to exit its IMF Extended Credit Facility mid-2026, analysts caution that fiscal discipline will be tested.
EM Advisory warns that the country’s historic pattern of expenditure expansion post-programme could derail recent macroeconomic gains if not carefully managed.
The advisory highlights several potential triggers, including overrun of the public sector wage bill, underperformance in tax revenues, and rising interest payments.
“Our sensitivity analysis identifies that each 5% tax revenue shortfall is associated with a deficit deterioration of approximately 0.7 percentage points of GDP,” the report said.
Combined with a 5% wage overrun, the cash deficit could rise to 5.7% of GDP, breaching the Fiscal Responsibility Act limits.
Policy execution is also critical, particularly regarding flagship initiatives such as the Big Push Infrastructure Programme and the 24-hour economy. “If the government cannot demonstrate visible progress on its priorities, the optimistic growth scenario of 6% becomes unattainable,” EM Advisory noted.
Commodity price volatility remains another key risk. Gold, which represents 62% of export earnings, has surged above $5,000 per ounce, but history shows prices can correct sharply.
“The government must leverage this opportunity to reduce overreliance on a single export commodity and accelerate economic diversification,” the report advised.
EM Advisory concludes that 2026 will be a crucial year for Ghana’s credibility.
“The political capital exists to pursue difficult but necessary reforms—rationalising the wage bill, broadening the tax base, and delivering reliable public services.
Whether these opportunities are seized will define Ghana’s medium-term trajectory,” the report concluded.
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