The Ghana Cedi, after months of unprecedented gains, is expected to come under seasonal pressure and settle between GH₵13.5 and GH₵14 to the U.S. dollar by the end of 2025, according to economist Professor Godfred Bokpin.
In an exclusive interview on Joy FM on Monday, September 16, Prof. Bokpin urged Ghanaians to remain calm and focus on the country’s economic fundamentals, describing the Cedi’s recent volatility as a natural market phenomenon.
“We have our peak period and then we have our low period as well. In the peak period, when we experience what we call cash flow mismatch in terms of inflows and outflows… businesses import in anticipation of Christmas and all of that. So the demand will pick up,” he explained, adding that rising government spending is also likely to put pressure on the currency.
The Cedi’s performance this year has been a story of two halves. In the first half, it staged a remarkable comeback, appreciating by about 40.5% against the dollar by the end of May. This surge, its strongest in years, was driven by improved investor sentiment, a robust disinflationary trend, and a successful debt restructuring programme.
However, Prof. Bokpin cautioned that such rapid appreciation was unsustainable, noting that the currency had “jumped the gun” and raced ahead of the real economy.
He also pointed to a troubling “wide divergence” in exchange rates across the formal banking sector, forex bureaus, and the black market, warning that this gap fuels speculative activity. “The divergence is too wide,” he said, calling on the Bank of Ghana to act to ensure transparency.
Prof. Bokpin further cautioned against the national fixation on daily exchange rate movements. “I get a bit concerned because every now and then, if you look at extreme rate discussions and you do a market survey, it’s more or less dominating our economic discussions much more than anything else, and I think that is not good enough,” he stressed, urging a shift in attention to the real sector.
Despite the volatility, Ghana’s macroeconomic data offers reasons for optimism. Inflation dropped to 11.5% in August 2025—its lowest since late 2021—while GDP growth hit 6.3% in the second quarter, buoyed largely by the services sector.
These indicators, Prof. Bokpin said, suggest Ghana has “exited the peak of our crisis recovery,” with current fluctuations being part of a normal, though complex, market adjustment.
Source: David Apinga
