The Ghana cedi is projected to record modest stability in the coming days as positive sentiment builds on the back of the World Bank’s US$360 million concessional loan, alongside stronger forex support expected to anchor the outlook.
However, market watchers say the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decisions, particularly a cautious US interest rate cut in response to softening labour data, will play a key role in shaping US dollar–cedi dynamics.
Over the past two weeks, the local currency came under sustained depreciation across both the interbank and retail markets.
On the interbank market, the cedi weakened from a midrate of GH¢11.40 to GH¢12.15 per US dollar. It also lost ground against the pound and euro, declining by 6.41% and 6.28% to settle at GH¢16.45 and GH¢14.23, respectively.
In the retail market, the cedi posted a 6.72% loss against the dollar, closing at GH¢13.40. It further depreciated against the pound and euro, which closed at GH¢17.60 and GH¢15.45, compared to GH¢16.55 and GH¢14.35 recorded two weeks earlier.
Databank Research attributed the recent slide to heightened seasonal demand, weak sentiment, delayed forex supply interventions, and the drag from capital controls on transactions.
“The marginal setback of the cedi, driven by heightened seasonal demand and weak sentiment, confirms our earlier expectations of near-term pressure during this period. We believe this trend was fuelled by bearish expectations, delayed FX supply interventions, and the drag from capital controls on FX transactions,” the firm said.
“Looking ahead, we expect modest stability as positive sentiment builds on the back of the World Bank’s US$300 million concessional loan, with stronger FX support further anchoring this outlook,” it added.
As of the start of this week, the cedi was trading at GH¢13.60 to the dollar at the forex bureaus, while selling at GH¢12.20 on the interbank market. Its year-to-date gain against the US dollar now stands at 16.29%.
Source: Joy Business
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