In his message shared across social media, Obi described Mahama’s triumph as a testament to Ghana’s democratic values and a symbol of political maturity on the African continent.

He expressed optimism that Mahama’s presidency would bring transformative achievements in areas like education, health, and poverty alleviation while fostering progress and unity across Africa.

The congratulatory post was accompanied by a photo of the two leaders, signifying solidarity and a shared vision for Africa’s development.

Speaking on The Honest Bunch podcast, he revealed that he wouldn’t consider leaving his wife even if she cheated.

Obi explained his commitment, expressing that no action, not even an extramarital affair or abuse, would shake his loyalty.

He went on to say that he sees his relationship with his wife as a lifelong bond that’s beyond external judgments or actions.

“No matter what my wife does today, I can’t stop marrying her, and I can’t separate with her. I can never. Even if she likes, let her use a gun to shoot me. As long as I’m alive, she’s my wife. That’s it. That’s me. As long as I’m alive, she is my wife, that is sealed, finished. Whatever she likes, let her do”.

Peter Obi believes that his wife’s choices are separate from his values and that her actions would not tarnish his character.

“Because what is she going to do that will offend me? What? Maybe have an affair, it’s her business. It’s not me. They won’t say the two of us had an affair. They will say “Peter Obi is a very good man who married a woman who is wayward”, that’s it”

The former governor also spoke about how they manage differences, even in lifestyle preferences.

He shared a story of how they travel together but sometimes sit in different classes, with his wife in business class and himself in economy.

This is to explain the liberal lifestyle they both have in their marriage, adding that these differences have never led to conflict.

Obi said the development has exposed Nigeria’s failed leadership and poor attitude to the rule of law in a democracy.

He said: “The trending international news on the seizure of three Jets belonging to Nigeria’s Presidential fleet is yet another of many embarrassing things exposing our failed leadership and our attitude to the rule of law even in a democracy. It has also exposed multiple dimensions to our leadership failure and our insensitivity to the plight of the growing poor class in our midst.

“The fact that the federal government went ahead with the jet deal despite the cacophonous cry against the purchase of a Presidential jet at this time when the people are going through a horrifying economic hardship shows the insensitivity of this administration.

“Added to it is the embarrassing aspect of our country’s Presidential jets being held for contractual breaches arising from yet another dimension of inadequate leadership tidiness.

“I have been loud in my demand over time that the government at all levels should be accountable to the people, meaning that they must be very transparent in all their dealings. Until a court in France prohibits Nigeria from moving or selling these three jets, Nigerians have no iota of information about both the buying and selling of these aircraft.

“It has been done in secrecy. Federal Government property, which belongs to the people, is being managed as a personal family asset. Paying as much as $100m dollars for a Presidential jet for a country that is the poverty capital of the World and has more out-of-school children with over 40% food inflation is the height of concern for the people’s feelings.

“This incident has also opened up an aspect of indiscipline that is copiously embedded in our country which is the abuse and disrespect for the rule of law.

“Here are questions begging for answers:

“To what extent did the Ogun government follow its agreement with the Chinese firm?

“After the UK court ruling that prohibited some Nigeria building in Liverpool, what did both Ogun state and Federal Government do before the French court action?

“I would like to, therefore, challenge the federal government to come clean and transparent on this matter and tell Nigerians how we got to this latest international mess.”

Source: Vanguard 

Obi who spoke on Saturday, during the 10th anniversary of Alaigbo Development Foundation in Umuahia, Abia State, regretted that the country had aboundance of praise singers who tell leaders what they what to hear.

The former Anambra State Governor who recalled how he judiciously managed public funds while in office, also charged public leaders to use public funds for the people.

He further charged them to make people-centred policies, and pursue programmes that promote public peace.

Obi blamed the woes of Nigeria on avarice and insatiable quest for wealth among public office holders.

He, therefore, challenged Nigerians to speak truth to power and stop hero worshipping.

Obi said: “What we lack in Nigeria is people who can tell you you are wrong when you are. Leaders are bound to listen to the people because the people put them in the office.

” Leaders must use public money for public purpose”, Obi thundered.

Continuing, he said:”When I was in public office, I used public money for public purpose. I made sure I used the peoples money for them.

” I did not spend any Kobo for personal gain. I didn’t take it owing pensions, gratuities. I did not owe any contractor. Now in private life I can do whatever I like with my money.”

The former Anambra State Governor who said he left office without owing workers including pensioners and contractors, disclosed that he also left behind $150m for the state.

Obi solicited continued prayers for leaders so they would serve the people with the fear of God.

The former Anambra Governor who advocated role for traditional institution, advised Government to partner socio-cultural organizations for the development of society.

He further encouraged ADF to continue its advocacy and sensitization of Ndigbo for advancing the cause of the Igbo nation.

Obi also preached unity among Ndigbo.

In his remark, the pioneer President of ADF, Professor Uzodinma Nwala, said the objective of ADF had been galvanize Igbo stakeholders for the development of Alaigbo.

The new national President of ADF, Nze Coleman Emeka Chukudelunzu, called for unity among Ndigbo to rebuild Igbo land.

Earlier in his opening remarks, the Chairman of the event, Maj General Chris Eze (retd.), commended the doggedness of Ndigbo to overcome the challenges of the civil war.

Highlights of the two -day event were the inauguration of the new national leadership of ADF, and cutting of the anniversary cake.

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Peter Obi in a statement via his official X handle on Monday said Africa’s liberation will materialise by coming together as a continent and committing to the need for change.

“The fate of Africa is in our hands; especially, in the hands of our youths. We can ignite the long overdue emancipation of the African continent, by adding our voices to the need for change, but more importantly, by committing to ending Africa’s leadership morass,” he said.

He also attributed the hindering growth and development of the continent to leadership failure.

According to Mr. Obi this narrative could be changed if leaders gets their acts rights.

“Unfortunately, Africa’s growth and development will continue to appear as an impossible dream if we do not deal with the only challenge facing Africa – leadership failure,” he said.

This statement comes after Peter Obi alongside notable and respected African voices like Prof P. L. O Lumumba from Kenya, Dr. Arikana from Zimbabwe were scheduled to speak at a convention in Accra, organized by the New Africa Foundation.

The event was slated to take place at the Independence Square on Sunday, January 7, 2024 but was canceled at the last moment.

Full tweet below:

The fate of Africa is in our hands; especially, in the hands of our youths. We can ignite the long overdue emancipation of the African continent, by adding our voices to the need for change, but more importantly, by committing to ending Africa’s leadership morass.

— Peter Obi (@PeterObi) January 8, 2024

According to Mr Mahama, there is a possibility that a third political force could impact the chances of the two major political parties.

In a recent appearance on the KSM show, Mr Mahama noted that Ghana has witnessed the emergence of a third force affecting election outcomes on previous occasions. He mentioned that this phenomenon had happened twice in Ghana’s electoral history.

Drawing comparisons to Nigeria’s political landscape, Mr Mahama referred to Mr Peter Obi, the Presidential candidate of Nigeria’s Labour Party.

He explained that Mr Obi caused an upset by leaving his former party, the PDP (People’s Democratic Party), and joining the Labour Party, where he garnered surprising numbers that significantly influenced his campaign’s success.

Addressing the third force subject, Mr Mahama emphasised that such a phenomenon was not entirely new in Ghanaian politics.

Additionally, he recalled historical instances where the absence of a clear majority led to a second round of elections.

In 2000, a second round was necessary, and in 2008, no party obtained more than 50 percent of the votes until Prof John Atta Mills emerged victorious.

These scenarios, according to Mr Mahama, throw light on the possibility of smaller parties capturing percentage points that might have otherwise benefited the leading parties.

Watch the video below:

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Obi, who campaigned as an outsider and galvanised young and first time voters, came third in the election, behind winner Bola Tinubu from the ruling All Progressives Congress party and main opposition People’s Democratic Party’s Atiku Abubakar.

“We are challenging the qualifications of the candidate that was declared the winner. We are also challenging the processes that led to his declaration as the winner, among others,” Labour Party spokesperson Yunusa Tanko told Reuters.

Election observers from the European Union, the Commonwealth and other bodies reported a range of problems, among them failures in systems designed to prevent vote manipulation.

The observers criticised the electoral commission for poor planning and voting delays, but they did not allege fraud.

The commission itself apologised for the technical problems during the count.

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He strongly rejected the results and vowed to contest them in the courts, in his first public address since Saturday’s election yesterday in Abuja.

Peter Obi, confident that he won in the polls, said he wouldn’t relent taking back the mandate that had the incumbent APC candidate Bola Ahmed Tinubu elected as the winner.

Also, six states have asked the Nigerian Supreme Court to declare INEC’s Pronouncement of Tinubu as President-elect null, void, of no effect pursuant to the Electoral Act of the Federal Republic

The six states that instituted the suit through their Attorneys General are Adamawa, Akwa Ibom,, Bayelsa, Delta,Edo and Sokoto.

The suit was filed pursuant to section 6 (6)14(3)153(2) and 252 of the 1999 Constitution and inherent jurisdiction of the Apex Court.

They are asking the Supreme Court to invoke relevant provisions of the law to annul the poll based on alleged irregularities and malpractices.

The States want the apex court to declare that the pronouncement of the candidate of the All Progressives Congress, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, as winner of the February 25 presidential election and president-elect based on that election be voided by the court.

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“We will explore all legal and peaceful option to reclaim our mandate. We won the election and we will prove it to Nigerians,” Obi said at a press conference on Thursday in Abuja.

“I am challenging the process,” Obi declared to a room full of journalists at Nigeria’s capital city, his first media appearance after the declaration of a winner by the electoral umpire.

Just at the commencement of the briefing, Obi observed a one-minute silence for all injured and deceased victims of the February 25 poll.

Also in attendance at the briefing is the party’s National Chairman, Julius Abure; as well as the director general of Obi’s presidential campaign, Akin Osuntokun.

He also said himself and his running mate, Datti Baba-Ahmed remain committed to a new Nigeria.

He effusively thanked his youthful followers known as ‘Obidients’, urging them not to be deterred by the outcome of the polls.

“We will work for that new Nigeria that is possible,” he said. “Datti and I remain committed to that new Nigeria.”

He assured youth in the country that he is not going away but will stay and work for a new Nigeria.

He said the poll did not meet the minimum standard for a free and fair election, adding that the poll will go down as the most controversial election conducted in Nigeria.

Obi lamented that Nigeria cannot conduct election 63 years after independence.

Back Story

The All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, Bola Tinubu polled 8,794,726 and was declared President-Elect 4am Wednesday by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

The former Lagos State governor came out tops in 12 of Nigeria’s 36 states, and secured significant numbers in several other states to claim the highest number of votes — 8,794,726, almost two million votes more than his closest rival — former Vice President Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

Atiku, 76, who has now run for president six times, got 6,984,520 votes, while Obi, who, in less than a year, galvanised young voters in a manner some have described as unprecedented finished the race with 6,101,533.

By his victory, APC’s President Muhammadu Buhari will hand over to his partyman, Tinubu after the expiration of his eight-year two-term on May 29, 2023.

Criticism, Calls For Poll Cancellation

The announcement of the results would not have happened if other candidates had their way.

Right from the election on Saturday, opposition parties had complained bitterly that INEC officials at the polling units were unable to upload election results electronically to the commission’s Results Viewing Portal (IReV), as stipulated by Section 60 of the Electoral Act 2022.

The IReV and the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) are new technologies introduced by the electoral body for the accreditation and electronic transmission of votes for this year’s polls.

The leadership of the APC, LP, and NNPP at several press briefings from Saturday to Tuesday had called on INEC and protested the manual transmission of results.

The parties said the results by INEC showed “monumental disparities” between what the party agents signed and what INEC officials announced in Abuja and asked Mahmood to respect the upload of results electronically as stipulated by recommended by the law.

They said the manual transmission of results compromised the integrity of the election process and demanded a cancellation of the election and asked the electoral chief to step down. They said the results announced by INEC were “irretrievably compromised”.

Opposition party agents had staged a walkout from the national collation centre in Abuja on Monday after the INEC chief insisted that the process must continue despite that all results were not electronically transmitted.

At a previous press conference on Tuesday, LP national chair said, “This election is not free and far from being fair”.

Similarly, former President Olusegun Obasanjo as well as leaders in the West African sub-region led by former Nigerian President, Goodluck Jonathan; ex-Ghanaian President John Mahama had before the declaration of results called on INEC to comply with the provisions of the Electoral Act 2022 on the collation of results for the presidential and National Assembly elections held on February 25, 2023.

However, INEC chairman, Mahmood Yakubu, declared Tinubu as Nigeria’s President-Elect and handed him his Certificate of Return.

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The Labour Party’s Peter Obi narrowly defeated the ruling party’s Bola Tinubu in his heartland, results announced by state election officials show.

This is the first time since 1999 that a party backed by Mr Tinubu, a two-time Lagos governor, has not won the state.

But Mr Tinubu has won three of the five other states declared so far.

Mr Tinubu has won in his south-western strongholds of Ondo, Ekiti and Kwara, narrowly losing to Atiku Abubakar of the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Osun state, according to results announced by state election officials.

Mr Abubakar has also narrowly won the presidential election in Katsina, the home state of outgoing President Muhammadu Buhari.

The results from the states still have to be formally announced by the head of the Independent National Electoral Commission (Inec) at its headquarters in the capital, Abuja.

The delays in getting results from the states and the capital, Abuja, have led to growing frustration.

The electoral commission has apologised for the unresponsiveness of the results viewing page on its website, saying a surge in use caused technical hitches.

The delays are partly a result of the election continuing for a second day in parts of the country.

The election on Saturday saw voting start several hours late in many areas, and also attacks on some polling stations.

More than 87 million people were eligible to take part, making it the biggest democratic exercise in Africa.

The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the PDP have dominated Nigeria since the end of military rule in 1999 but this time, Mr Obi from the previously little known Labour Party is expected to mount a strong challenge to the two-party system.

A candidate needs to have the most votes and 25% of ballots cast in two-thirds of Nigeria’s 36 states to be declared the winner.

Otherwise, there will be a run-off within 21 days – a first in Nigeria’s history.

Why have results been slow in coming?

The earliest a winner has been announced is on the third day after voting in the previous two elections, but many had expected a faster conclusion this time because of the introduction of an electronic result transmission system.

This was meant to increase transparency and make sure the results could not be altered by creating a digital version on the website of the electoral commission, Inec.

But many voters have accused electoral officials of refusing to upload the results at the polling units as they are supposed to.

Officials complained of a lack of internet in some places to upload the results, but voters have shared videos and images shared where Inec officials refused to upload the results.

There have also been reports of disturbances at INEC collation centres in some states, with some political parties on Sunday asking their supporters to go to such places to protect their votes.

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Three contenders are thought to have a chance of winning in Africa’s most populous country.

It’s thought to be the most competitive election since the end of military rule in 1999.

All sides have promised to resolve any disputes through the courts.

In addition to the candidates from the two main parties – the governing All Progressives Congress and the People’s Democratic Party – a third leading contender has emerged.

Peter Obi of the Labour Party has attracted enthusiastic support from young activists on social media.

In a country that seems to always be on the lookout for a messiah to solve its myriad problems, young social media-savvy supporters have elevated Mr Obi to sainthood and are backing his largely unknown Labour Party against two septuagenarian political heavyweights.

The way he has attracted supporters seems to border on populism – a tag he and his supporters would denounce, but some of his rhetoric might be encouraging that.

“It’s time to take your country back,” he often says.

“[This election] is the old against the new,” he told the BBC.

His name is often trending on social media on the back of numerous conversations sparked by his supporters, instantly recognisable from their display picture of his image or the white, red and green logo of his party.

These are mostly urban under-30s who refer to themselves as the “Coconut-head generation”, because they are strong-willed, independent-minded and contemptuous of older politicians who, they say, have done little for them.

Many of them, like Dayo Ekundayo from the eastern city of Owerri, were involved in the EndSars protests that forced the disbandment of a notorious police department two years ago and also morphed into calls for better government.

Now, they are deploying the same strategies that mobilised hundreds of thousands of young Nigerians and raised millions of naira within weeks for the 61-year-old who they consider an alternative to the two parties that have dominated politics since the end of military rule in 1999.

“Which Nigerian politician has ever held office and has his integrity intact? I do not see any other logical option for young people in Nigeria,” said Mr Ekundayo.

He has already been involved in a march for Mr Obi, and is providing logistics and mobilising students for the campaign as he did during the EndSars protests.

But opponents say Mr Obi is a political impostor, one of many who spring up at election time with delusions of being a third force that will wrestle power from the traditional parties.

Many supporters of the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and neutral observers agree he is head and shoulders above the other candidates, but say he lacks the nationwide popularity to win the election and have warned his supporters that they risk wasting their votes.

They believe he is a distraction from the common goal of removing the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) from office, and could split the opposition vote.

A devout Catholic from eastern Nigeria, they point to his lack of popularity in the Muslim-dominated north, whose votes are considered critical in winning presidential elections.

But Mr Obi and his running-mate Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed have had strong showings at party rallies in the north, attracting large crowds in states where the popularity of the Labour Party was doubted – although such crowds can be hired by politicians.

His critics also question whether he truly represents a break from the corruption he routinely lambasts, pointing out that his name popped up in the leaked Pandora Papers which exposed the hidden wealth of the rich and powerful in 2021.

While he was not accused of stealing money, he failed to declare offshore accounts and assets held by family members, citing ignorance.

He was also accused of investing state funds, as governor, into a company he had dealings with. He denied any wrongdoing and points out that the value of the investment has since grown.

Mr Obi repeatedly says he is not desperate to be president, which is ironic for a man who has changed parties four times since 2002.

He dumped the PDP just days before its presidential primary in May and the party went on to choose the 75-year-old former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar as its presidential flagbearer.

Critics say he pulled out of the contest because he knew his chances of winning were slim but he cited wrangling within the PDP, where he was a vice-presidential candidate in 2019, for deciding to cross over to the Labour Party.

His supporters are also convinced that he was pushed out of the PDP because he refused to bribe delegates at the party primary and have coined the phrase: “We don’t give shishi (money)” as a buzzword for his famed frugality and his prudence in managing government funds in a country with a history of wasteful expenditure by public officers.

They regard him as an unconventional politician prepared to take on the APC and PDP behemoths seen as different sides of the same coin, who they accuse of dipping their fingers into the public purse.

There is also a religious and ethnic twist to his candidacy.

In a country where roughly half the population is Christian, his supporters hope that this will bolster his chances of winning, as after eight years of President Muhammadu Buhari they would not want another Muslim – the APC’s Bola Tinubu, 70, or the PDP’s Mr Abubakar – to take office.

And while he has downplayed his religion, Mr Obi has become a constant face at the large auditoriums of Nigeria’s Pentecostal churches, to rapturous receptions, and he has also singled out Christian communities in the north for visits.

This has drawn criticism from opponents who accuse him of bigotry and trying to create divisions through religion, accusations he has denied.

Some also support Mr Obi because of his ethnic background. Igbos make up the country’s third largest ethnic group, but Nigeria has had only one Igbo president, largely ceremonial, since it freed itself from British colonial rule in 1960.

Many Igbos accuse successive Nigerian governments of marginalising them and hope that Mr Obi will rise to power so that the south-east, where most of them live, would see greater development and so counter the pull of secession groups like the Indigenous People of Biafra (Ipob).

Critics say he is a supporter of Ipob, a group designated as a terror organisation by Nigeria, but he told the BBC that he is a firm believer in Nigeria and that his position on the different “agitations across the country” is to dialogue and reach a consensus.

He said Nigeria’s number one priority is the issue of insecurity because it has become an existential one “that must be dealt head-one decisively”.

“If you deal with it [security] today, you deal with inflation because farmers would go back to farms and that would reduce food inflation,” he said.

A philosophy graduate, he worked in his family’s retail businesses before going on to make his own money, importing everything from salad cream to beauty products, and baked beans to champagne, while also owning a brewery and holding major shares in three commercial banks.

You can normally recognise a Nigerian billionaire from a mile off but Mr Obi is thrifty and wears it as a mark of pride.

He is quick to point out that he owns just two pairs of black shoes from midmarket British chain Marks and Spencer, prefers a $200 suit from Stein Mart to a $4,000 Tom Ford suit, and always insists on carrying his own luggage, rather than paying someone else to do it for him.

Even his children are not spared his frugality. His 30-year-old son was denied a car, he said, while his other child is a happy primary school teacher – a rarity in a country where a politician’s name often opens doors to more lucrative jobs.

The OBIdients

Despite the financial controversy, his tenure as governor of Anambra state has become a reference point for his presidential campaign.

His supporters point out that he invested heavily in education and paid salaries on time – the simple things that most Nigerian state governors tend to neglect.

He also left huge savings in state coffers at the end of his two four-year tenures, another rarity.

But Frances Ogbonnaya, a university student in Anambra state when Mr Obi was governor, is surprised by the praises being sung in his name, describing his tenure as unremarkable.

“Who saves money in the face of hunger? Who saves money in the face of a lack of facilities?” she asked rhetorically.

But it is his reputation for frugality and sound management that has attracted a horde of supporters, known as OBIdients.

Some have been accused of cyberbullying and labelling anyone who does not vote for him in next year’s election an enemy of the state.

He responded with a tweet calling on his supporters to “imbibe the spirit of sportsmanship”, but it has done little to calm them down.

They are quick to remind anyone who tells them that elections aren’t won on Twitter, that data from the electoral body shows a jump in new registered voters, most of them young people.

But this is not the same as actually turning out to vote on election day.

With weeks to the election, there is no denying the momentum behind Mr Obi but cynics also point to the lack of a nationwide party structure to support the view that, while possible, an Obi presidency remains highly improbable.

“The structure that has kept us where we are, the structure that has produced the highest number of people in poverty in any country, the structure that has produced the highest number of out of school children, that is the structure we want to remove,” he said.

He retorted that his structure is “the 100 million Nigerians that live in poverty [and] the 35 million Nigerians who don’t know where their next meal will come from”.

If half of those turn out to vote him on election day, it might very well be all that he needs.

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It will be the largest democratic exercise on the continent as Africa’s most populous nation picks a new president.

The crucial election comes as the country battles myriad economic and security problems that range from fuel and cash shortages to rising terror attacks, high inflation, and a plummeting local currency.

For the first time since the country’s return to democratic rule in 1999, none of the candidates is an incumbent or a former military leader.

Outgoing President Muhammadu Buhari is term-limited and will step down amid a patchy legacy that has brought “a lot of frustration and anger” to Nigerian voters, analysts say.

Who are the candidates?

Eighteen candidates are in the running for Nigeria’s highest office, each confident they can turn the country’s fortunes around if voted into power, but opinion polls suggest three are leading the race for the popular vote.

One of the key contenders is Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the candidate of Buhari’s party, the All Progressives Congress (APC). Another is the main opposition leader and former vice president Atiku Abubakar, of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP).

Nigeria’s presidential elections have typically been two-horse races between the ruling and opposition parties, but this year’s vote has a third strong contender, Peter Obi, who is running under the lesser known Labour Party.

Tinubu, 70, a former governor of Nigeria’s wealthy Lagos State, wields significant influence in the southwestern region where he is acclaimed as a political godfather and kingmaker.

The affluent political veteran, boasts of aiding the election of Buhari to the presidency on his fourth attempt in 2015, after three previous unsuccessful bids.

Bola Ahmed Tinubu, foreground right, presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress, Nigeria ruling party, during an election campaign rally.Joshua Olatunji/AP

After decades as a political puppet master, Tinubu declares it is now his turn to emerge from the shadows into the presidency; his campaign slogan is “Emi Lokan,” which translates to “it is my turn,” in his native Yoruba language.

The ruling party candidate has, however, been dogged by allegations of graft which he strongly denies. Critics say he has also not convincingly addressed concerns about his health, and has, at times, appeared confused and incoherent on the campaign trail. He has also made gaffes that have made him the butt of jokes and viral memes on social media.

Tinubu has also come under criticism for abstaining from presidential debates and delegating questions about his manifesto to members of his team during a recent outing at the UK think tank Chatham House.

One of Tinubu’s main challengers is the opposition party’s Abubakar, who is running for the sixth time following five previous losses.

Abubakar, 76, who served as vice president from 1999 to 2007, is a staunch capitalist who made his fortune investing in various sectors in the country. The tycoon has been investigated for corruption in the past. However, he denies any wrongdoing.

Many believe Abubakar’s presidential ambition might usurp an unofficial arrangement to rotate the presidency between Nigeria’s northern and southern regions, since he is from the same northern region as the outgoing leader, Buhari.

Peter Obi is a two-time former governor of Anambra State who is being touted as a credible alternative to the two major candidates.

Obi eschews the excesses of the typical ‘African Big Man’ leader He shuns a large entourage, flies economy class and carries his own luggage. His “no frills” approach has attracted hordes of supporters, mostly young Nigerians who call themselves ‘Obidients.’

Obi is also the only Christian among the leading candidates. His southeastern region has yet to produce a president or vice president since Nigeria returned to civil rule in 1999.

The ruling party’s Tinubu, although from the religiously mixed southwestern part of the country, is a Muslim and also chose a Muslim running mate, fueling public anger over his choice.

Described by Tinubu as “Mr. Stingy,” Obi, 61, is famed for his frugal approach and is seen as a ‘Mr Clean’ of Nigerian politics.

However, his offshore accounts were among those found in the Pandora Papers, which exposed the hidden riches of the global elite in 2021. Obi denies any wrongdoing.

Will elections hold?

The past two elections have been postponed at short notice and there are fears this one will suffer the same fate. However the electoral commission insists there will be no disruptions.

Prof. Kingsley Moghalu, a political economist and former presidential candidate in the 2019 election told CNN he expected a high turnout, “except if suppressed by a security breakdown of any sort,” he told CNN.

More than 93 million Nigerians are registered to vote but uncertainty hangs over voter turnout on polling day, with insecurity among the biggest concerns.

Public policy analyst Abideen Olasupo told CNN the uncertainties surrounding this year’s elections have put off many voters.

“Nigerian voters are currently the most disturbed and confused voters in the world right now because they are not sure if the election will hold; and if it will hold, they are not sure if the process will not be manipulated,” Olasupo said.

Citizens have also been disrupted by an attempt to curb vote buying by making the old currency notes useless to prevent rogue politicians from stockpiling cash. But there are fears shortage of the new naira notes could disrupt the elections itself.

Electoral body INEC reportedly warned that the inability of banks to distribute enough of the new cash could make it difficult to pay temporary staff and security guards needed to operate thousands of polling stations for presidential and parliamentary elections on Feb. 25.

As it is, voting will not take place in more than 200 polling units across Nigeria, in places such as Imo and Taraba (two of Nigeria’s conflict-prone states) says INEC, because of concerns over security.

Separatist gangs and marauding gunmen known locally as bandits have terrorized parts of the country through kidnappings for ransom.

Elsewhere, other impediments threaten voter turnout as some Nigerians are yet to collect their permanent voter’s card (PVC) with less than a week to the poll.

What are the issues?

The co-founder and head of intelligence at data company Stears, Michael Famoroti, tells CNN that critical issues around security and the economy will be top of mind for voters and could influence their electoral choices.

“Nigerians fall under two buckets: One is insecurity. However, overall, the main issue that Nigerians agree needs to be dealt with is the economy,” he said, with concerns ranging from poverty to unemployment and policy.

“The cash crunch, petrol scarcity … are issues that are likely going to be top of mind for those who make it to the polls and arguably could sway the votes,” Famoroti says.

Fuel shortages and scarcity of the newly redesigned local currency have stirred violent protests in parts of Nigeria as millions of people struggle to get their hands on new versions of bank notes.

Nigerians expect the eventual winner of the presidential poll to hit the ground running in finding solutions to those problems, including tackling the country’s burgeoning debt profile, oil theft, and a controversial petrol subsidy that deprives the country of major oil revenue.

The top three candidates have made promises to tackle some of these issues. The ruling party’s Tinubu vows to create jobs, grow the economy, and “obliterate terror, kidnapping, banditry, and violent crime from the face of our nation.”

Touting a “recover Nigeria” mantra, the PDP’s Abubakar says he wants to “block government wastages” by first running a small government, weaning the country off the petrol subsidy, and making it “the hub of crude oil refining in Africa.”

The Labour Party’s Obi says his government will be keen to shift Nigeria’s focus “from consumption to production” while also being determined “to fight and significantly reduce corruption” and create systems to reduce unemployment, insecurity, and inflation.

Who is tipped to win?

A predictive poll by Stears puts Obi ahead of the two main challengers in a large voter turnout scenario. A lesser turnout will favor Tinubu, according to the Stears’ poll.

“There was a scenario where we only considered voters who had picked up their PVC … based on that scenario, the Labour Party candidate is the most likely winner,” Famoroti told CNN.

“However, we then also estimated a low turnout scenario. The idea is that these are the harder than hardcore voters and those that most likely will turn up to vote on the day. Under that scenario, the APC candidate … emerges victorious,” he added.

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Another poll by Lagos-based SBM Intelligence does not foresee a frontrunner but suggests that Obi and Abubakar could garner a sufficient number of ballots to meet the 25% vote spread in 24 of Nigeria’s 36 states required by law to win.

The forecast is different for the Political Africa Initiative (POLAF) whose survey polled three million people and predicts a close race between the opposition PDP (38%) and the ruling APC (29%).

Obi’s Labour Party is projected to occupy third place with 27% of the votes.

“This election is extremely difficult to predict,” Moghalu, the political economist, told CNN.

“That’s because of the ‘Third Force’ factor of Labor Party candidate Peter Obi, which has scrambled the projections of the two traditionally dominant parties, APC and PDP.

“While many still believe one of the two will come out on top ultimately, the fact that several scientific opinion polls have put Obi in the lead means that the possibility of an upset clearly exists,” says Moghalu.

Moghalu believes Nigerians may vote largely along ethnic and religious lines, as well as traditional party lines.

“The only major factor that is an ‘issue’, and will influence many votes, is the hunger for a change in direction which millions of young and middle-aged voters have, and for that reason support Obi. Will that be enough to propel him to victory? That’s the X-factor.”