He said the decline reflects a broader effort to stabilise the economy through disciplined fiscal management and prudent financial planning.

Speaking during a citizen engagement at the University for Development Studies on Sunday, April 19, the President noted that inflation, which stood above 24 per cent when his administration assumed office, has now fallen to below 4 per cent.

According to him, the improvement is the result of deliberate policies aimed at controlling public expenditure and reducing excessive borrowing, especially at a time when Ghana’s access to international capital markets remains limited due to its debt challenges.

“We’ve been able to manage petroleum prices so that we cushion our citizens and prevent inflation from going back up to the levels that we came to meet it.

“When we came into office, inflation was running above 24%; it has been brought down to under 4%, and we intend to keep it there. We have done this by just being fiscally disciplined,” he stated.

The President emphasised that sustaining these gains remains a top priority as government works to maintain economic stability and protect households from rising costs.

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The IMF, in its Economic Outlook for sub-Saharan Africa, had initially projected growth at 4.6% for 2026, citing macroeconomic stabilisation and ongoing reform efforts.

However, sources close to the Fund told JoyBusiness that the upward revision reflects stronger-than-expected performance under the current IMF programme, an improved economic outlook, and government’s commitment to fiscal discipline.

The new growth estimate aligns with government’s projection in the 2026 Budget presented to Parliament in November 2026.

IMF’s Global Economic Outlook and Ghana

The revision comes at a time when the IMF has downgraded the global growth outlook to 3.1% from 3.4% recorded in 2024.

According to the Fund, the downgrade is linked to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and its potential impact on the global economy.

In its latest Global Economic Outlook report, the IMF warned that the global economy faces renewed uncertainty as geopolitical tensions threaten growth and disinflation.

The Fund outlined three scenarios, noting that if the conflict remains contained in duration and scope, global growth could slow to 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027.

Global inflation is expected to rise moderately in 2026, then ease again in 2027. Emerging and developing economies are likely to be the hardest hit.

The IMF cautioned that a prolonged or expanded conflict, worsening geopolitical fragmentation, shifts in expectations around artificial intelligence-driven productivity, or renewed trade tensions could further weaken growth and destabilise financial markets.

During a press conference in Washington DC, the IMF’s Chief Economist and Director of Research indicated that central banks, including the Bank of Ghana, should avoid rushing to increase policy rates in response to current disruptions.

Instead, central banks are being urged to closely monitor developments before taking policy decisions.

The IMF also expects global growth to pick up in 2027, with projections showing an increase to 4.9%.

Inflation Projection

The IMF is projecting that Ghana will end 2026 with an inflation rate of 7.9%.

This is slightly lower than the government’s target, assuming current disinflation trends are sustained.

However, the Fund’s outlook suggests inflation, currently around 3.2% as of March, could rise in the coming months before settling at the projected level.

Despite this, some analysts maintain that Ghana is likely to sustain single-digit inflation through 2026.

The IMF also forecasts an end-of-year inflation rate of 8% for 2027, indicating that inflation could remain within single-digit levels over the medium term.

World Bank on Ghana’s growth and inflation estimates

The World Bank, in its latest Africa Economic Update released on April 8, has also projected a 4.8% growth rate for Ghana in 2026, with inflation expected to end the year at 9%.

The growth projection is consistent with government estimates, but signals a slowdown compared to the 6% GDP growth recorded in 2025.

While the specific drivers of the slowdown remain unclear, government has previously indicated caution due to external risks.

The World Bank’s inflation forecast is higher than the government’s 8% target.

Analysts believe inflation may rise in the short term before easing towards the end of the year.

External pressures, particularly developments in the Middle East and their impact on petroleum prices, remain key risks.

Despite these uncertainties, Ghana is still expected to maintain single-digit inflation by the end of the year.

This was captured in the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision report submitted by the Bank of Ghana.

However, one of the members voted for a 75 basis points cut, while the other member wanted the rate to be kept unchanged at 15%

Reasons

The majority of the members were worried about the impact of the developments in the Middle East and its impact on the economy, especially inflation.  For instance, according to the submission made by one member of the MPC, there are some key downside risks to the forecast with respect to inflation due to the recent surge in international crude oil prices and their transmission to domestic ex-pump petroleum prices.

 “This could, however, be moderated by continued commitment to fiscal discipline, relatively tight monetary policy, and exchange rate stability”, the member added.

Another member, however,  was worried about the broader impact of developments in the Middle East on the economy – inflation, growth, utility tariffs and cost of credit.

The member noted that “The case for cutting is strong at this MPC round, but material upside risks to inflation warrant a calibrated, rather than aggressive”.

However, there was some broad consensus among the members.

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Speaking on the AM Show on JoyNews, he noted that during the tenure of the Akufo-Addo-led government, inflation reached as high as 54% but later fell to 23.8% before the administration left office.

“Today, inflation is around 3.3%, and you come here to say we are suffering more than when it was 23.8%. How can you say that?” he questioned.

Adorye’s remarks came in response to comments by New Patriotic Party (NPP) communicator Awal Mohammed, who had suggested that Ghanaians are facing greater economic hardship now than during the previous administration.

He insisted that current economic conditions, particularly the lower inflation rate, indicate that Ghanaians are not worse off compared to previous years.

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According to IC Research, it estimated real policy rate now stands at 12.2% with the latest disinflation and a nominal policy rate of 15.5%.

“While this signals vast scope for deeper cut, we believe the MPC will favour caution amidst the volatile geopolitical risk events, especially as energy prices surge and the US Dollar strengthens”.

“We thus expect the authorities to sustain the preference for double digit real policy rate with a rate-cut bias, pegging our anticipated cut in the policy rate at between 100 – 200bps [basis points], with a leaning towards 150bps cut to 14.0%”, it added.

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Ghana cut its policy rate to 15.5% in January 2026, from 18%.

This decision was aimed at stimulating economic growth and responding to declining inflation.

In taking the policy decision, the MPC acknowledged that macroeconomic conditions have improved significantly. This was supported by the tight monetary policy stance, fiscal consolidation, and significant build-up of reserves.

Inflation declined faster than anticipated, with expectations remaining well anchored, and growth strengthening.

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Inflation to go up in March 2026 – IC Research

It is forecasting a 60 basis points uptick in annual inflation to 3.9% in March 2026, while the sequential rate stays flat at 0.8% month-on-month.

“We expect further push from the belated pass-through of the 1Q2026 [first quarter 2026] utility tariff hike while the Middle East war pushes Brent crude oil above US$83.0 per barrel, higher than the US$ 74.7 per barrel peak seen in March 2025. We believe that higher global energy prices through March 2026 will elevate price inflation for gas & other fuels and trim the transport deflation with upside risk for nonfood and overall inflation”, it disclosed in its analysis of the February 2026 Inflation.

Additionally, it pointed out that the onset of planting season, compounded by disruptions to cross-border supply of tomatoes, could lift vegetables & tubers from deflation territory and pose upside risk to food and overall inflation.

“We believe the February 2026 inflation data suggest that Ghana’s disinflation trend is near the finish line and the authorities have now entered the decisive phase of sustaining price stability as the 18 March 2026 MPC [Monetary Policy Committee] decision approaches. Beneath the encouraging headline, we observed an important nuance in the inflation dynamics”, it explained.

For the first time since January 2025, it said that annual food and non-food inflation rates moved in opposite direction, supporting IC Research’s view that an end to the disinflation trend is imminent, especially as cost and supply-chain risks re-emerge.

February Inflation

Inflation declined to 3.3% in February for the 14^th consecutive month.

Food inflation, however, dropped sharper in February 2026 compared to the January descent, easing by 150 basis points to 2.4% year-on-year with the sequential rate plummeting to 0.2% month-on-month.

Non-food inflation surprisingly increased by 30 basis points to 4.0% year-on-year, reverting above food inflation in February 2026, following the convergence in the prior month.

IC Research observed an elevation in price pressures within the non-food components as the number of divisions which posted disinflation reduced from ten to seven while divisions with inflation upsurge increased from two to five.

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A respite from a potential war-driven surge in inflation would likely reduce the likelihood of central banks raising interest rates, a positive for non-yielding gold.

Spot gold rose 0.8% to $5,179.52 per ​ounce, as of 0233 GMT. U.S. gold futures for April delivery rose ⁠1.7% to $5,188.70.

The dollar fell 0.4%, making greenback-priced bullion cheaper for holders of other currencies.

Gold ​prices rose “due to the news flow from U.S. President Trump himself, stating that there is ​a potential for de-escalation… So what we could see is that potential inflation expectation starts to tone down given this dramatic fall in oil price,” said Kelvin Wong, a senior market analyst at OANDA.

Oil ​prices fell over 10% after Trump said the war in the Middle East could end ​soon, easing concerns about prolonged disruptions to global oil supplies.

Trump also warned that U.S. attacks could rise ‌sharply ⁠if Iran sought to block tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles one-fifth of the world’s oil supply.

The war has effectively shut the Strait, stranding tankers for over a week and forcing producers to halt output as storage fills up, sending energy prices soaring.

Gold prices fell on Monday as higher energy costs fanned inflation concerns and further dimmed the prospects for a near-term cut in interest rates by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Investors expect the Fed to keep rates steady at the end of its two-day meeting on March 18, per CME Group’s FedWatch tool. [FEDWATCH]

Gold is seen as an inflation hedge, but low rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding it as a zero-yield asset.

Markets are now awaiting the U.S. consumer price index for February, ⁠due on ​Wednesday, and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index – the Fed’s ​preferred inflation gauge – on Friday.

Spot silver rose 3% to $89.60 per ounce. Spot platinum was up 1.2% at $2,208.16, and palladium ​gained 0.2% to $1,693.84.

According to the latest data from the Ghana Statistical Service, presented by Government Statistician Dr. Alhassan Iddrisu, food inflation dropped to 2.4% in February 2026 from 3.9% in January 2026.

Although food prices increased by 0.2% between January and February 2026, non-food inflation edged up slightly to 4.0% in February from 3.8% in January, with non-food prices rising by 1.2% month-on-month.

Inflation for goods slowed to 3.2% in February 2026, down from 3.7% in January 2026, while goods prices rose by 0.94% month-on-month.

Since goods account for nearly three-quarters of the CPI basket, the slowdown in goods inflation offers some relief for consumers. Meanwhile, services inflation eased to 3.7% in February from 4.2% in January.

Dr. Alhassan also highlighted persistent regional disparities, with inflation rates varying across the country. The North East Region recorded the highest rate at 8.9%, while the Savannah Region posted the lowest at -5.6%. He attributed the differences to factors such as local supply constraints, transportation costs, and market access challenges.

He further expressed optimism that the continued easing of inflation could create room for businesses, households, and the government to focus on improving efficiency and strengthening economic stability.

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He says while the Ghana Statistical Service’s report of the lowest inflation rate since 2021 looks good on paper, market prices remain unchanged.

Speaking on Nhyria FM’s Kro Yi Mu Nsem show, the former Roads Minister expressed concern that the 3.8 percent inflation rate recorded in January 2026 is not translating into relief for ordinary Ghanaians.

Mr. Asenso-Boakye argued that inflation figures should reflect real-life economic conditions, but Ghana’s situation appears different.

“I’m surprised inflation is declining but not reflecting in the markets. When you go to Bantama Market, Kejetia Market, Asafo Market, Makola Market, and other markets, you can see that prices of goods remain unchanged or have even gone higher,” he told the host, Barima Kofi Dawson.

The lawmaker cast doubt on the reliability of the statistics, suggesting the need for a closer look at the figures, which he said raise red flags and could point to flaws in the data collection process.

“If the reduction in inflation is genuine, why is it not reflecting in our pockets?” he quizzed. “This has a lot of Ghanaians, especially policy observers, raising concerns that the reports in Accra don’t match what’s happening in the markets. We’re beginning to doubt the accuracy of the figures; it seems they’re being manipulated.”

The MP also rejected claims that traders are solely responsible for failing to reduce prices, insisting it is the government’s duty to ensure inflation reductions translate into lower market prices.

He urged the government to involve the Ministry of Trade in engaging leaders of traders’ associations and unions to push for price reductions.

“It is the responsibility of the government to ensure that inflation reductions are felt on the ground by engaging the unions of traders,” he said.

Background

According to the Ghana Statistical Service, consumer inflation slowed for the 13th consecutive month to 3.8 percent year-on-year in January 2026, down from 5.4 percent in December 2025.

The 1.6 percentage point drop was driven largely by a decline in food inflation, which fell to 3.9 percent.

This represents the lowest inflation rate recorded since Ghana’s Consumer Price Index was rebased in 2021.

The Ghana Statistical Service (GSS) on Wednesday, February 4, announced that inflation eased to 3.8 per cent in January, down from 5.4 per cent in December 2025.

According to the Service, the decline was driven by reduced price pressures across selected goods and services.

Reacting to the announcement, the Ofoase-Ayirebi Member of Parliament said feedback from constituents and members of the public paints a very different picture, suggesting that prices of essential items remain high despite the reported slowdown.

Mr Oppong Nkrumah said Parliament would invite the Government Statistician to provide further explanation and allow lawmakers to scrutinise the data against prevailing market conditions.

“As I hear these figures, I am also receiving messages from people who say what they experience in the market does not correspond with what they say.

“When the Government Statistician appears before Parliament, we will have the opportunity to interrogate the data and compare it with what is actually happening on the ground,” he said.

He added that inflation statistics must reflect the realities consumers face, stressing that Ghanaians who shop daily in the markets are best placed to judge whether prices are truly easing.

Mr Oppong Nkrumah also criticised the government’s inflation management strategy, arguing that it focuses primarily on tightening liquidity rather than addressing production constraints and broader supply-side challenges.

Government Statistician Alhassan Iddrisu attributed the 1.6 percentage-point decline mainly to falling food prices, with food inflation easing to 3.9%. He noted that this is the lowest inflation rate since the Consumer Price Index was rebased in 2021, confirming Ghana’s steady return to macroeconomic stability.

The sustained disinflation bolsters the case for further monetary policy easing by the Bank of Ghana, which has already cut its policy rate by 12.5 percentage points since July last year. Inflation has now fallen below the central bank’s 8% target, even as the country continues its recovery from the worst economic crisis in decades under an IMF-supported programme due to end in August.

This was 0.6 percentage points higher than the November 2025 producer inflation rate, but 24.2 percentage points lower than the December 2024 producer inflation rate.

On a month-on-month (MoM) basis, the rate between November and December 2025 was -0.8%. Thus, on average, producers’ prices for goods and services decreased by 0.8% in December compared to November 2025.

According to data from the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS), Mining and Quarrying, the largest sector with a weight of 43.7%, recorded a 1.0 percentage point increase in producer inflation. This was from 2.3% in November 2025 to 3.3% in December 2025.

On the other hand, the Manufacturing sector which makes up 35% of the PPI weights, decreased from 0.5% in November 2025 to 0.1% December 2025, losing 0.4 percentage points.

Also, the producer inflation in the transport and storage sub-sector continued to fall, declining from -10.2% in November 2025 to -3.7% in December 2025.

Recommendation

The GSS urged household and consumers to practice value-based and price-conscious spending, using PPI trends to guide purchasing decisions.

It also advice them to adjust consumption choices toward more stable-priced goods and services to protect real incomes.

For businesses, the GSS called for improve cost efficiency and productivity to sustain operations amid mixed sectoral price pressures.

It also wants them to re-invest savings from lower input costs such as manufacturing into technology, skills, and supply-chain resilience.

Regarding government, it called for reduction in structural production costs by strengthening energy supply, transport infrastructure, and logistics systems.

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According to the Central Bank, this projection reflects the combined impact of the maintenance of an appropriate monetary policy stance, ongoing fiscal consolidation and adequate reserve buffers.

However, the possible upward adjustments in utility tariffs and spillover effects from US tariff-related price pressures, it mentioned, could exert some upside risks to the outlook.

Notwithstanding this, it expects the maintenance of an appropriate monetary policy stance, strong sterilisation efforts, ongoing fiscal consolidation, and adequate reserve buffers to sustain the disinflation process going forward.

Headline inflation continued its downward trend, declining to 8.0% in October 2025 from 9.4% in September 2025. It further went down in November 2025 and December 2025 respectively.

The underlying inflationary pressures also continued to ease.

The Central Bank’s core measure of inflation, which excludes energy and utility items from the consumer basket, declined to 7.4% in October 2025, down from 8.8% in September 2025.

Inflation expectations, based on surveys of banks, businesses, and consumers, also remained well-anchored, reflecting the continued easing of underlying inflationary pressures.

Speaking to the media after engaging with traders, Madam Ofosu-Adjare noted that the exchange rate has strengthened significantly from about GH¢17 to the US dollar in 2024 to around GH¢12, easing foreign exchange pressures on imports and creating room for price reductions across the spare parts market.

She also highlighted recent fiscal measures, including the removal of the COVID-19 levy in the 2026 Budget, which she said would reduce import duties and overall costs on imported spare parts.

“In 2024, the dollar went up to about $1 to 17 cedis. Now it is under $12, so there shouldn’t be any justification for prices to remain the same or increase,” she stated.

Madam Ofosu-Adjare disclosed that this was her fifth engagement with traders across various markets, recalling that previous discussions in 2025 led to commitments by traders to reduce prices within four months as the cedi stabilised. She said about 80 per cent of dealers at Abossey Okai have already reduced prices, with many consumers, including drivers accompanying her, confirming the trend.

However, she noted that a few traders are yet to adjust prices fully and encouraged them to align with the improved macroeconomic conditions.

“I am excited about the reception and the assurance that when I return, prices will see further improvement. With the COVID levy now scrapped, import duties will naturally come down. From February or March, I expect prices to be even better than what we are seeing now,” she added.

The Minister also advised vehicle owners to purchase spare parts directly from dealers rather than through intermediaries, warning that middlemen often inflate prices and distort the market.

“Middlemen give the people of Abossey Okai a bad name. Come with your mechanic, discuss directly with dealers, and shop around for the best deal,” she urged.

She further pledged that the government will continue engaging stakeholders, including Sprinter bus spare parts dealers, to improve efficiency and ensure fair pricing across the automotive spare parts value chain.

Meanwhile, Chairman of the Abossey Okai Spare Parts Dealers Association, Henry Okyere Jnr., assured that the association is taking steps to sustain price reductions in line with market conditions.

“We are moving from store to store to educate our members that the dollar is stable and duties are down, so prices must also come down. Give us about 30 days to see how things work out,” he said.

Data released by the GSS for December 2025 also showed that month-on-month inflation stood at 0.9 per cent, pointing to relatively moderate price movements toward the close of the year.

The continued disinflation was largely driven by easing food prices. Food inflation fell to 4.9 per cent in December, down from 6.6 per cent in November, as price increases for several key food items slowed.

This reduction in food inflation played a major role in pulling down the overall inflation rate, providing some relief to households after months of heightened cost-of-living pressures.

The sustained decline in inflation signals improving price stability as Ghana enters 2026, following a year marked by consistent moderation in consumer price increases.

According to the latest Prime Building Cost Index (PBCI) released by the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS), overall building construction inflation declined to 5.9% in November 2025, down from 7.8% in October 2025. This marks the seventh consecutive month of decline in construction inflation.

The data was presented in Accra by Omar Seidu, Acting Deputy Government Statistician, who highlighted improving cost conditions across key components of the construction industry.

Despite the year-on-year slowdown, the overall prices of building inputs rose marginally by 0.4% month-on-month between October and November 2025, reflecting moderate price adjustments within the sector.

Labour and Materials Costs Ease

The report showed a significant easing in labour-related pressures. Year-on-year labour inflation fell sharply to 12.7% in November 2025, from 13.7% in October 2025. On a month-on-month basis, labour prices increased by 2.6%, suggesting continued demand for skilled labour, albeit at a slower pace.

Materials inflation also showed improvement. Year-on-year materials inflation declined to 4.2% in November 2025, down from 6.3% in October 2025, while materials prices recorded a slight 0.1% decrease month-on-month.

Similarly, inflation for plant slowed, with year-on-year plant inflation easing to 5.3%, from 7.0% in October 2025. However, plant prices declined by 0.7% month-on-month, indicating reduced short-term cost pressures in that category.

Equipment Records Highest Inflation

At the sub-group level, the report revealed mixed trends. Equipment recorded the highest inflation rate at 15.2%, reflecting continued cost pressures in machinery and tools used in construction.

In contrast, reinforcement materials recorded the lowest inflation rate of minus 7.3%, suggesting falling prices for key inputs such as steel reinforcement.

Outlook for Construction Sector

The sustained decline in construction inflation is expected to support ongoing infrastructure projects, private real estate development and housing affordability, particularly if the trend continues into early 2026.

The Ghana Statistical Service noted that the Prime Building Cost Index remains a critical tool for monitoring cost movements in the construction industry and guiding policy, investment and contract adjustments.

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Speaking at the 41st National Farmers’ Day celebration in Ho, the President revealed that food inflation, which previously stood at 28.3%, has sharply dropped to 9.5% as of October 2025.

“This is a notable improvement from the 22.8% recorded at the same time last year,” he said, emphasising that the results reflect the impact of targeted interventions.

According to President Mahama, the government’s strategy included the distribution of 50,000 metric tonnes of fertiliser and 3,000 metric tonnes of hybrid maize and rice seeds to farmers and key national institutions, including the National Service Authority, churches, secondary and tertiary schools, and the Prison Service.

He explained that these efforts have boosted production, stabilised market supply, and helped ease food prices, marking an important step forward in Ghana’s broader food security agenda.

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Inflation fell to 6.3 percent in November 2025, the lowest since the 2021 rebasing and marking the eleventh consecutive month of decline.

Dr. Forson said the numbers confirm that key economic reforms are yielding results, expressing particular satisfaction with the improvement in food prices.

“I am especially delighted by the sharp fall in food inflation, down from 9.5 percent in October to 6.6 percent in November,” he noted, adding that the drop will bring relief to households nationwide.

The Minister emphasised that the gains extend beyond food. “It is not just food. Price pressures are easing across the board,” he said.

According to the latest data, local inflation fell from 8.0 percent to 6.8 percent, while imported inflation decreased more sharply from 7.8 percent to 5.0 percent.

Describing the trend as a solid sign of economic recovery, Dr. Forson said, “This is real, measurable progress!”

Analysts say the sustained decline in inflation could further support economic stability and improve conditions for both businesses and consumers as the recovery strengthens.

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According to him, despite the remarkable improvement in the macroeconomic indicators, the 2026 targets show little new ambition.

“The macroeconomic data speak for themselves. Real GDP [Gross Domestic Product [GDP] growth for 2025 stood at 4.8%, exceeding the target. Inflation fell from 23.8% in 2024 to just 8.0% in 2025, and public debt declined sharply from 69.0% of GDP to 45%. These numbers confirm that Ghana has indeed ‘turned the corner’.”

“However, the 2026 targets show little new ambition. Growth, inflation, and fiscal balances are set at or below 2025 levels. The overall message is clear: the government intends to consolidate the gains rather than pursue expansion. That is understandable for a country emerging from crisis, but it also means 2026 will be a year of stability, not transformation”, Dr. Nsafoah, who is an Assistant Professor of Economics at Niagara University in New York, disclosed in his review of the 2026 Budget.

Transformation Deferred

Dr. Nsafoah who is also a member of the research committee of Tesah Capital remarked that economic transformation requires more than stability; “it demands a decisive reorientation of spending from consumption toward investment. On that front, the data reveal little change”.

He added that “capital expenditure in the 2026 Budget for the years 2025 and 2026 averages 2.6% of GDP, almost identical to the 2.5% recorded in the 2024 and 2025 budgets. Meanwhile, the wage bill remains elevated at about 5.7% of GDP, higher than both previous years. In simple terms, Ghana continues to spend twice as much on salaries as on development projects”.

This fiscal structure, he alluded may preserve stability, but it does not build a foundation for growth. “Productive investment—in infrastructure, technology, and skills—remains too small to drive job creation or diversify the economy”.

Inclusive Growth Still Out of Reach

He continued that the government’s third stated objective—strengthening the social sectors for inclusive growth—also appears unfulfilled.

Therefore, the education and health budgets record modest nominal increases, but both decline in real terms once inflation is considered relative to the 2025 Budget. “Social protection programmes such as LEAP, School Feeding, and the National Health Fund all see nominal cuts ranging from 2 to 17%, and real reductions of up to 25%.

According to him, these numbers suggest that while social programmes are being maintained, they are not expanding.

“The fiscal space gained through stability has not yet been translated into stronger safety nets or improved access to essential services”, he concluded.

According to data from the Ghana Statistical Service, the latest figure represents a continued easing from 9.4 percent recorded in September 2025.

The sustained downward trend reflects the impact of a stable currency, easing fuel prices, and improved food supply conditions across the country.

Food inflation fell sharply to 9.5 percent in October from 11.0 percent in September, while non-food inflation also declined to 6.9 percent from 8.2 percent over the same period.

Inflation for locally produced items saw a significant drop to 8.0 percent, compared to 10.1 percent in September, suggesting improved price stability in domestic goods.

However, imported inflation edged up slightly to 7.8 percent from 7.0 percent, likely due to global logistics and exchange rate adjustments.

At the regional level, the Bono East recorded the lowest inflation rate of 1.1 percent, while the North East Region posted the highest rate of 17.3 percent, though still down from 20.1 percent in September.

Speaking at the launch of the State of the Ghanaian Economy Report in Accra, Professor Quartey warned that while lowering inflation is essential for macroeconomic stability, overly aggressive monetary tightening could hinder job creation and business expansion.

“We must be careful not to pursue lower inflation at the expense of growth and employment. Policies should support price stability while also creating space for businesses to thrive and for the economy to grow sustainably,” he said.

His remarks follow comments by Bank of Ghana Governor, Dr. Johnson Asiama, who indicated that inflation is expected to decline further in the coming months.

Professor Quartey commended the central bank’s progress in stabilising prices but stressed the need for a coordinated fiscal and monetary approach that supports productive sectors of the economy.

“Inflation management should go hand-in-hand with measures that stimulate investment, enhance productivity, and promote job creation,” he added.

The State of the Ghanaian Economy Report, ISSER’s annual publication, provides a comprehensive analysis of key economic indicators, policy developments, and sectoral performance. This year’s report highlights Ghana’s steady progress in restoring macroeconomic stability while underscoring the challenges of sustaining inclusive growth amid global and domestic pressures.

According to the Central Bank, this is reflecting the impact of monetary policy tightening, the appreciation of the cedi, and the ongoing fiscal consolidation.

Moreover, it said supply-side pressures have eased, reducing their contribution to food and headline inflation. In the outlook, risks to inflation are tilted to the downside.

However, the upside risks remain, including broader supply chain challenges, global trade tensions, a 2.5% upward adjustment in utility tariffs, and the introduction of a new 1.0% energy levy on ex-pump prices, which could impact inflation.

Going forward, the Bank of Ghana said the exchange rate stability is expected to persist, supported by significant improvements in the external sector. These improvements have led to the accumulation of international reserves, far exceeding the ECF-supported program target, which will further aid the disinflation process.

Additionally, factors such as a tight monetary policy stance, ongoing fiscal consolidation, and stable crude oil prices could help offset the upside risks to disinflation.

Year-on-year inflation eased to 9.4% in September 2025, fueled by a significant drop in food inflation.

It was the 9^th consecutive month decline.

Source: Joy Business

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This is the lowest since August 2021 and the ninth consecutive decline.

According to the data published by the Ghana Statistical Service, the decline shows a sustained shift in prices that signals Ghana is firmly on the path to macroeconomic stability.

The Government Statistician, Dr. Alhassan Iddrisu, noted that the development shows that the pressures driving inflation over the past months are declining.

Food inflation declined to 11.0 percent in September from 14.8% in August 2025.

Also, non-food inflation fell to 8.2 percent in September 2025 from 8.7 percent in August 2025.

Inflation for locally produced items was 10.1 percent in September from 12.2 percent in August 2025.

Imported items recorded 7.4 percent for September in inflation from 9.5 percent in August 2025.

Regional Inflation

For the regions, the North East Region registered the highest inflation at a striking rate of 20.1%.

It is more than double the national average of 9.4%.

The Bono Region however recorded the lowest inflation at 1.2 %.

Source: Joy Business

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However, businesses, particularly Fast-Moving Consumer Goods and Oil Marketing Companies, that rely heavily on grid-powered electricity for operations would experience a modest uptick in operational charges.

According to IC Research, a leading financial and investment research firm, this strengthens the case for TOTALEnergies to sustain the ongoing solarisation of its service stations which contributed to the containment of operational expenditure growth at 12.9% year-on-year in half-year 2025 (below average inflation).

However, Fan Milk PLC will likely face further cost headwinds in the quarters ahead, having grappled with a 44.2% year-on-year growth in operational expenditure in the first-half of 2025.

It continued that the government renewed commitment to the quarterly adjustment formula is positive for the energy sector as it helps stakeholders move towards what they perceive as “cost reflective tariff”.

“Also, we continue to observe compliance by the Electricity Company of Ghana (ECG) with the Cash Waterfall Mechanism agreed for paying service providers within the energy sector. The ECG has fully complied with payments so far this year, partly due to the enforcement of a Treasury Single Account for the ECG”, it added.

It mentioned that latest available data (July 2025) revealed that the ECG fully complied with the agreed disbursement amounts for all Level A beneficiaries (seven IPPs and two fuel suppliers) and Level B beneficiaries (State entities in the sector).

From June 2025 to September 2025, the Government of Ghana via the Ministry of Finance disbursed a total of US$682.31 million to support the energy sector. This figure comprises of US$94.04 million for liquid fuel, US$152.38 million for IPPs, and US$435.88 million for gas supplies and transportation services.

Source: Joy Business

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According to the Central Bank, the projection is anchored on its current monetary tightening stance, fiscal consolidation, and improved food supplies, which have accelerated the pace of disinflation.

The forecast is based on the fact that the economy does not experience any significant shocks or external disruptions in the coming months.

Director of Research at the Central Bank, Dr Philip Abradu-Otoo, disclosed this on PM EXPRESS BUSINESS EDITION with host George Wiafe.

“We have seen a rapid disinflation over the past months, and we expect that to be sustained going forward,” he maintained.

Dr Abradu-Otoo further noted, “At the beginning of the year when we did our projection, we were expecting to hit single digits in the first quarter of 2026.

However, based on current developments in the economy, the Bank of Ghana has pushed this forward to the last quarter of 2025.”

He explained that this outlook was one of the reasons the Monetary Policy Committee cut its key lending rate by 350 basis points to 21.5%.

Sustaining Gains

Speaking on the show, Dr Abradu-Otoo assured that the Bank of Ghana remains committed to maintaining stability in the monetary space.

“The Bank of Ghana will definitely continue with what we are doing to ensure that things do not get out of hand,” he said.

He added, “The Central Bank will continue to work to ensure consistency in policies and build reserves to ensure that we have a firm grip on the market.”

Responding to criticisms about the margin of the policy rate cut, Dr Abradu-Otoo stressed that the decision was informed by data and a positive economic outlook.

“The decision was unanimous in terms of the need for the policy to be cut; however, the margin was based on a vote,” he explained.

The Director of Research therefore maintained that all members of the Monetary Policy Committee agreed on a cut, but the extent of the reduction “was when we had to vote.”

Source: Joy Business

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This marks the eighth consecutive month of decline, bringing inflation below the government’s 11.9% end-of-year target and signaling improved price stability. The August figure is the lowest recorded since late 2021. On a month-to-month basis, overall prices fell by 1.3%, providing some relief for households after years of elevated living costs.

Addressing the press on Wednesday, September 3, Government Statistician Dr. Alhassan Iddrisu explained that food inflation eased to 14.8% in August from 15.1% in July, with food prices declining by 2.5% within the month. Non-food inflation also slowed to 8.7% from 9.5%.

Inflation for goods dropped to 13.9% from 14.2%, while imported inflation fell faster than local inflation, supported by a stronger cedi and easing global cost pressures.

Dr. Iddrisu noted, however, that inflation varied across regions, reflecting differences in supply chains, transport costs, and local market conditions.

Source: AdomOnline

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Deloitte and the IMF are both projecting single-digit inflation by year-end, with the IMF forecasting as low as 8%. In June 2025, annual inflation dropped sharply to 13.7% from 18.4% the previous month. Month-on-month prices fell by 1.2%, a sign that the macro indicators are heading in the right direction.

The Ghanaian Cedi has also made an extraordinary comeback. It appreciated by 42% against the U.S. dollar, 30.3% against the British Pound, and 25.6% against the euro. The exchange rate moved from a staggering GH¢17 (November 2024) to GH¢10.30 (June 2025) on the interbank market—gains not seen in recent memory.

In theory, this is great news. In reality, though, many Ghanaians are asking a very simple question: Why isn’t any of this reflecting in the market?

Essential goods like home-grown foodstuffs, cement, and building materials continue to see price hikes or remain stubbornly high. A recent PwC survey confirms the disconnect: 45% of respondents said the inflation decline is not translating into real-life relief. This raises a critical question for the government and policymakers: What good are strong macroeconomic numbers if ordinary people still can’t afford basic necessities?

Falling Inflation, Rising Food Prices

The issue lies in the structure of our food systems. Food inflation remains high because, despite the consistent drop in the rate of price increases, prices themselves are still increasing, albeit at a slower pace. That’s partly due to the lingering effects of earlier high production costs, seasonal supply fluctuations, and deep-rooted inefficiencies in local supply chains.

But one cannot ignore the human element: the disproportionate control wielded by market queens and middlemen over Ghana’s food distribution system. These actors dictate prices, quantities, and even the flow of goods from farms to market stalls. Their stranglehold on the food chain is so strong that it shapes what’s available to consumers and at what cost.

The World Food Program estimates that Ghana loses about $2 billion annually to post-harvest losses, largely due to poor storage and processing capacity. Yet this inefficiency thrives in part because it supports a system of price manipulation and limited accountability.

Other key drivers of high prices include unregulated cost of delivery services and galamsey. Delivery charges are often arbitrary—sometimes exceeding the cost of the item itself—due to a lack of regulation, allowing vendors and dispatchers alike to set prices at will.

Galamsey activities continue to devastate arable land, turning fertile fields into deep pits, reducing available land for farming, and affecting soil quality as well. This degradation, along with water contamination and labour shifts from agriculture to mining, has cut food production, driven up prices, increased reliance on imports, and worsened food insecurity.

Many of these powerful market actors are politically connected, making it difficult for successive governments to decisively intervene.

Even cement prices, which are not directly food-related, are telling. As the Roads Minister, Kwame Governs Agbodza, recently asked: Why is a bag of cement still selling for GH¢120 when macro conditions should support a price closer to GH¢95 who is benefiting from these inflated prices?

The answer is clear—not the ordinary Ghanaian.

What Must Government Do?

This is not just an economic dilemma; it’s a governance challenge. If falling inflation and a strong Cedi aren’t reducing the cost of living, then there is something fundamentally wrong with the system —and that needs fixing.

Here’s what the government should consider doing to make the macroeconomic gains translate into market reality:

Scale Up Social Interventions

Immediate relief is crucial. Programs like the Livelihood Empowerment Against Poverty (LEAP) and food vouchers must be expanded and more efficiently targeted. These should be linked to community-level food distribution systems that bypass exploitative market channels.

 Boost Local Food Production

Ghana must address the root cause of food price instability—insufficient domestic supply. This requires investment in irrigation to extend growing seasons, support for mechanisation, access to quality seeds, and robust extension services for farmers.

Reduce Post-Harvest Losses

Up to 30% of food produced in Ghana is lost due to poor storage and bad roads. Building feeder roads and cold storage facilities will stabilise prices and improve food availability year-round.

 Promote Agro-Industrialization

We must move beyond raw food production. Agro-processing adds value, creates jobs, and reduces our dependence on imported products. Tax incentives, affordable credit, and support for farmer cooperatives can help Ghanaian agribusinesses scale up and compete.

Break the Market Monopoly

The National Buffer Stock Company (NAFCO) must be empowered to disrupt exploitative supply chains. By buying directly from farmers and distributing efficiently, NAFCO can challenge the dominance of market queens and stabilise prices.

 Improve Policy Coordination and Market Monitoring

The Ministry of Food and Agriculture should set up a Price Monitoring and Forecasting Unit to provide real-time data for proactive planning. Ghana must also coordinate with ECOWAS to facilitate food trade and prevent artificial shortages.

Adopt a Focused Import Substitution Strategy

Strategic investment in crops like rice, maize, tomatoes, and poultry can help Ghana move toward food self-sufficiency. Well-designed protectionist measures can give local industries the breathing room to grow and compete.

Enforce Mining Laws & Restore Degraded Lands

Government must empower security agencies and mining regulators to enforce laws impartially, with a focus on protecting agricultural lands and forest reserves. Additionally, targeted land restoration initiatives should be implemented to reclaim degraded areas.

Conclusion: A Moment to Act

Ghana stands at a crossroads. The economy is finally showing signs of macro-stability, but the real test lies in translating those gains into everyday affordability. Falling inflation and a resurgent Cedi mean little if market prices remain high due to inefficiencies, monopolies, unchecked profiteering and nefarious activities of galamsey operators.

This is not a simplistic matter of economics—it’s a matter of political will. It’s time for bold leadership that tackles food price inflation not just as a number on a chart, but as a lived reality for millions of Ghanaians. If the government acts now—reducing production costs, strengthening food systems, and cutting import dependency—Ghana can build a resilient, inclusive, and self-sustaining economy.

The opportunity is here. The question is: will we take it?

Source: Collins Ofoe Kwashie

This is the seventh consecutive decline this year and the lowest since October 2021.

According to the data by the Ghana Statistical Service 4, 2025, the decline was influenced by a significant slowdown in the general price levels of foodstuffs and other items

The Government Statistician, Dr. Alhassan Iddrisu, noted that the development shows that the pressures driving inflation over the past months are declining.

On a month-on-month basis, the general price level increased by 0.7% between June and July 2025.

However, food inflation declined by 1.2 percentage point to 15.1% in July 2025, and prices of food items increased by 0.6% between June and July 2025.

Also, Non-food inflation dropped by 1.9 percentage points to 9.5%, but price level of non-food items increased by 0.7% between June and July 2025.

Goods inflation dropped by 1.0 percentage point to 14.2% in July 2025. The prices of goods, however, increased by 0.5% between June and July 2025.

Similarly, year-on-year Services inflation dropped by 3.1 percentage points to 6.2% with the general price level for Services increasing by 1.3% between June and July 2025.

On the other hand, the year-on-year inflation for locally produced goods and services was 12.9%, still higher than that of imported ones at 10.0%. Although both are declining especially imported items, which dropped by 2.5 percentage points, whilst locally produced items declined by 1.1 percentage points.

The general price level for local items increased by 0.9% between June and July 2025 whilst that for imported items increased by 0.1%.

Regional Inflation

For the regions, the Upper West Region continued to register the highest inflation at a striking 24.8%, though lower than the June inflation of 32.3%.

It is more than double the national average of 12.1%.

The Central Region however recorded the lowest inflation at 7.7%.

Source: Joy Business

According to him, it is a critical marker of economic stability and investor appeal.

Reacting to the 2025 Mid-Year Budget on JoyNews Prime, Prof. Gyasi acknowledged the Finance Minister’s projection of 11.9% inflation but maintained that further reducing it to single digits would send a stronger signal of macroeconomic discipline.

“When it comes to inflation. Initially, there was a target of a single digit, but if you look at the mid-year budget that was read, the finance minister predicted 11.9. I think more ought to be done. If you can push it to a single digit, I think that can help the economy as well.”

He said if the government can focus on earning a single-digit inflation, the success story of the economy can be sustained.

He praised other aspects of the budget, including the continued appreciation of the cedi and prudent debt servicing, and noted that the overall outlook opens a gateway for increased investment.

“It (the budget) creates investor appeal, it brings investor confidence back, and it also indicates that we are open for business.”

Source: Joy Business

Speaking on JoyNews’ PM Express, Dr. Sarkodie pointed to historical trends where premature rate cuts led to a resurgence in inflation, derailing efforts to maintain macroeconomic stability.

“We’ve seen this before—each time we ease too soon, inflation shoots up again,” he said. “The Bank of Ghana must tread carefully, especially when inflation is not yet firmly under control.”

Although Ghana’s inflation has been on a gradual downward trend, it still remains above the BoG’s medium-term target. Dr. Sarkodie noted that with global commodity prices fluctuating and domestic pressures such as food and fuel costs remaining volatile, any policy misstep could reverse recent gains.

The Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to announce its next decision on the policy rate in the coming days. While some analysts are calling for a rate cut to boost economic growth, others, including Dr. Sarkodie, warn of the inflationary risks.

“We all want growth, but not at the expense of stability. If inflation returns, the costs will be even higher—especially for low-income households,” he stressed.

The policy rate, currently at 28%, remains a critical tool in the BoG’s efforts to rein in inflation. Any decision will signal the central bank’s policy direction to financial markets and the business community.

As the BoG weighs its options, experts like Dr. Sarkodie are urging a cautious, data-driven approach to protect the country’s fragile economic recovery.

Source: Joy Business

Consumer prices rose 2.7% in the year to June, up from 2.4% the previous month, with prices rising at the fastest pace since February, the Labour Department said.

Higher energy and housing costs, such as rents, were the major drivers of the increase.

But the data also suggested that consumers are starting to feel the impact of tariffs, as some firms begin to pass along the costs of Trump’s new taxes on imports.

Coffee prices jumped 2.2% from May to June, while prices for citrus fruits climbed 2.3%. Toy prices rose 1.8%, appliance prices increased 1.9%, while clothing prices gained 0.4% – the first increase to hit the sector in months.

But the overall increase remained contained and came in largely within expectations, offset by declines in prices for new and used cars, airfare and hotel bookings.

“There is a trickle of what is likely tariff-induced inflation in some categories, particularly household appliances and furnishings,” said Olu Sonola, head of US economic research at Fitch Ratings.

“This trickle is likely to gain momentum in the coming months.”

The average effective tariff rate in the US has surged this year, as Trump imposed a 10% tax on most goods entering the country, hitting key items, such as steel and cars, with even higher levies.

Though he suspended some more aggressive plans, in recent weeks, he has revived tariff threats, warning of plans to raise duties on goods from most countries from 1 August. Ongoing talks have raised hopes that deals will avert punishing duties.

Trump said on Tuesday he had struck a “great deal” with Indonesia, without offering details. So far, his tariff talks with other countries have concluded with tariff levels for goods from those countries far higher than the US had at the start of the year.

The president says the taxes will protect American businesses from foreign competition, boost domestic manufacturing and jobs, and bring in revenue for the government.

The White House has dismissed forecasts that the measures will lead to higher prices for Americans, arguing that companies and foreign exporters will absorb the costs.

That view is at odds with most economic forecasters, who have argued the US economy has been shielded so far because firms stocked up on many goods in advance.

Despite pressure from Trump to cut interest rates, the US central bank has resisted making any changes, saying it wants more time to understand the effect of the tariffs.

Analysts on Tuesday said they were not expecting any cuts at the Fed’s meeting this month and were divided about September, given the new inflation figures.

Source: BBC

“We expect the upcoming crop harvest in Q3 2025 and a favourable base effect in Q4 2025 to fan the disinflation flame in the second half of 2025, with a slight possibility of landing in the single-digit range—around 9.0%—by the end of the year,” the research firm noted. “However, our anticipation of a major hike in electricity tariffs in Q4 2025 and the reintroduction of the suspended GH¢1.00/litre fuel levy on 16 July 2025 keeps us cautious about the pace of disinflation.”

For July 2025, IC Research forecasts a 100 basis points (bps) decline in annual inflation to 12.7%, citing the 2.45% electricity tariff hike and the closed fishing season for industrial trawlers as key upside risks.

June 2025 Inflation Surprise

Headline inflation in June 2025 came in sharply below IC Research’s estimate, reflecting a stronger-than-expected pass-through of the Ghanaian cedi’s recent appreciation. This further deepens IC Research’s dovish expectations for the upcoming July 2025 Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting.

Annual inflation dropped 470 basis points to 13.7% year-on-year, marking the lowest level since December 2021. Month-on-month, the economy recorded surprise deflation of -1.2%, against a projected 0.8% inflation.

Food Inflation

Food inflation was the primary driver of the disinflation, decelerating by 650 basis points to 16.3% year-on-year, as 14 out of 15 sub-classes experienced sharp price drops.

Non-Food Inflation

Non-food inflation declined for the eighth consecutive month to 11.4% year-on-year, the lowest since November 2021. A 330bps increase in housing and utilities inflation (24.9% YoY) was outweighed by notable disinflation across 10 of the 12 non-food inflation divisions.

Of particular note, transport prices deflated by -8.5% year-on-year, driven by a 15.2% drop in petrol prices and 12.7% decline in diesel prices, largely attributed to the cedi’s appreciation and its positive impact on imported energy products.

Source: Joy Business

Government Statistician Dr. Alhassan Iddrisu noted that inflationary pressures seen in previous months are easing. For the first time in a while, the overall price level from May to June recorded a deflation of 1.2 percent, meaning Ghanaians paid less for goods and services in June compared to May.

Dr. Iddrisu said, “The downward inflationary trend over the last six months provides some consistency and assurance of a real, sustained shift in prices.”

Regionally, the Upper West recorded the highest inflation at 32.3 percent, mainly due to food and utilities, while the Bono region had the lowest at 8.4 percent. Dr. Iddrisu emphasized the need to use detailed regional data to better understand and reduce inflation disparities across regions.

Food inflation dropped by 6.5 percentage points to 16.3 percent from 22.8 percent in May, while non-food inflation fell by 3 percentage points to 11.4 percent.

Speaking on JoyNews’ PM Express Business Edition on Thursday, June 19, Prof. Asuming warned Ghanaians not to misread the improving inflation data as an indication that the cost of living is decreasing.

“We still have to understand that prices are climbing. Prices are still rising. They haven’t declined,” he stated emphatically. “There is a rate of price increase that has reduced, but that doesn’t mean prices are coming down.”

His caution follows a drop in the Producer Price Index (PPI) from around 18 percent to 10 percent—seemingly good news that, he explained, simply reflects a slower pace of price increases rather than actual price reductions.

Prof. Asuming pointed to persistent challenges, including rising utility tariffs, stagnant wages, and increasing domestic production costs, as key contributors to continued price pressures.

“These tariffs keep going up, and it’s a big element of the cost,” he explained. “Wages are not coming down. The domestic cost of production in the country is rising.”

He also noted that macroeconomic improvements, such as a stronger cedi and declining Treasury bill rates, have yet to bring relief to ordinary Ghanaians.

“The currency has strengthened, yes,” he acknowledged. “But when you put all of that together, we begin to see why we shouldn’t expect that the decline in inflation means prices are coming down anytime soon.”

Prof. Asuming highlighted a growing disconnect between financial indicators and everyday realities.

“It seems to me that the financial and monetary side of the economy has performed better. The real side seems to be lagging.”

He credited the government for stabilising some fiscal indicators, supported by improved global prices for Ghana’s export commodities. However, he warned against over-optimism.

“We have to understand that even though the first-quarter GDP performed beyond expectation, there are still lingering weaknesses,” he said. “If you break down the numbers… five sub-sectors actually saw a decline, though the weightier sub-sectors grew strongly.”

This, he explained, gives the illusion of strong overall growth while concealing underlying fragility.

“The financial indicators are moving forward much better than the real side. And that tends to give you a disconnect between how people are perceiving the economy and the macro numbers they are seeing.”

Prof. Asuming’s remarks serve as a sobering reminder: economic recovery on paper does not automatically mean economic relief in daily life—and falling inflation does not necessarily mean falling prices.

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The Ghana Statistical Service (GSS) attributed the sharp drop to a reduction in transportation fares and a decline in non-food inflation.

This marks the fifth consecutive reduction in inflation for 2025, signalling a consistent decline in the rate at which prices are increasing. It is also the lowest inflation rate recorded since February 2022.

The Government Statistician, Dr. Alhassan Iddrisu, explained that the fall in fuel prices at the pumps, along with the subsequent reduction in transport fares, contributed the most to the May inflation figure.

At the regional level, Dr. Iddrisu noted that the Upper West Region recorded the highest inflation rate at 38.1 percent, while the Ahafo Region recorded the lowest at 14.5 percent.

The projected 2025 figure is 25.4% higher than the GH¢103.4 billion recorded in 2019, prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Fitch Solutions attributes the expected growth to cooler inflation, greater stability of the Ghanaian cedi, and a likely dovish monetary policy stance by the Bank of Ghana.

Insights Into Consumer Spending

The firm maintains a positive outlook for consumer spending in 2025, aligning with its Country Risk team’s forecast of a 4.2% year-on-year real GDP growth for Ghana.

It noted that households are likely to benefit from reduced inflation and lower debt servicing costs, which will in turn boost disposable income and increase spending. “Slower inflation over 2025 will further fuel spending growth and a greater number of transactions,” the report stated.

Sluggish Start to 2025

Despite the optimistic outlook, the year began with a slowdown in consumer activity. Fitch Solutions observed that the volume of mobile money transactions fell to under 700 million in February 2025, after hitting a record 745 million in December 2024.

Similarly, the value of mobile money transactions in February 2025 was GH¢316 billion—unchanged from November 2024, but lower than the figures recorded in December 2024 and January 2025.

Fitch attributed the early-year dip to post-election uncertainty and weaker purchasing power following the festive season.

Nonetheless, it expressed confidence that spending activity will pick up pace as inflation eases and household confidence improves over the course of the year.

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The MPC kept the policy rate at 28% in May 2025, citing higher inflation despite exchange rate stability and fiscal consolidation.

In its West Africa MPC Update, Deloitte said the Bank of Ghana anticipates a quicker trajectory toward the inflation target of 12% by early 2026, assuming no unexpected shocks.

It added that the banking sector remains well capitalized and liquid despite elevated non-performing loans (NPLs).

Implications of MPC Decision

On the implications of the MPC decision, Deloitte pointed out that the positive real rate of return on investment has increased, leading to stronger capital inflows from high-yield government securities.

It mentioned that balancing price stability will sustain economic recovery and improve consumer and business confidence.

Similarly, it said the limited credit availability to the real sector is due to a relatively high-interest rate environment.

Concerns

Deloitte expressed concerns about the resurgence in inflationary pressures, such as utility tariff adjustments and the spillover effects from the global trade war.

MPC Likely to Maintain Cautious Approach

In Nigeria, Deloitte said the MPC is likely to maintain a cautious approach to managing price stability amid uncertainties and a fragile macroeconomic environment.

The policy rate in Nigeria presently stands at 27.50%.

It explained that ongoing fiscal policies will complement monetary policy efforts to rein in inflation.

Concerns remain about electricity tariffs, persistent forex demand pressure, and other underlying structural factors.

Similarly, global shocks—including the decline in global crude oil prices attributable to increased non-OPEC production and uncertainties associated with U.S. trade policy—continue to impact the environment.

This marks the third consecutive monthly drop, signalling a continued easing of price pressures at the factory gate.

The year-on-year decline of 5.9 percentage points was primarily driven by moderating inflation in the mining and quarrying and manufacturing sectors.

Mining and quarrying contributed 10.6 percentage points to the April rate, while manufacturing added 6.9 points—together accounting for nearly 95% of the month’s producer inflation.

On a month-on-month basis, producers experienced a deflation of 0.8%, indicating that average factory gate prices were lower in April than in March.

This contrasts with the 0.6% monthly increase recorded in March and reflects reduced revenues per unit of output.

Year-on-year inflation in the mining and quarrying sector dropped from 35.4% to 24.3%, while the manufacturing sector also saw a fall from 22.8% to 19.6%.

The transport and storage sector recorded a decline from 20.4% to 16.2%.

The Ghana Statistical Service noted that, “reduced input costs for producers could eventually translate to lower consumer prices if the reductions are passed along the supply chain.”

This development, it said, may offer a potential boost to economic activity if properly leveraged.

However, the Service cautioned that the slowdown in inflation also presents challenges for businesses, particularly in terms of tighter profit margins.

“This is a window for stabilisation and responsible investment,” it stated, urging policymakers and industry stakeholders to use the period of relative price stability to reassess operational costs, explore local sourcing, and cautiously resume expansion efforts to sustain long-term economic growth.

The drop was influenced by decline in food and non-food inflation compared to the same period for last year.

Speaking at News Conference in Accra today,  new Government statistician Dr. Alhassan Iddrisu noted that this is the fifth consecutive decline since December 2024.

He announced that inflation for locally produced items dropped from 24.0 percent in March to 22.7 percent in April 2025.

Recommendations

Mr. Iddrisu advised that there is the need to sustain, macro-economic stability and pursue measures to reinforce the downward inflation trend.

“Government must also work hard to sustain social intervention programmes such as the Livelihood Empowerment Against Poverty (LEAP), Capitation Grant , School  Feeding and other programmes  that  can protect  the  real income of the poor”, he said.

He added that government must fast track the implementation of Agriculture for Transformation programme to reduce food inflation.

This comes after investor demand for T-bills weakened last week, with total bids falling by 27% week-on-week to GH¢5.29 billion. The Treasury accepted GH¢4.73 billion—below maturities of GH¢6.09 billion and the GH¢6.32 billion target.

With inflation hovering around 22% and average yields estimated at 16%, the resulting negative spread of approximately 6% is discouraging investors.

Databank Research noted that earlier expectations of a demand rebound following the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) positive review were dampened by reduced institutional offers, driven largely by negative real returns.

This contrasts with the robust GH¢12.44 billion uptake for the Bank of Ghana’s 56-day bill, which offered a more attractive yield of 28%.

Additionally, the allocation of the 364-day bill only to non-competitive bids at sub-17% suggests that the Treasury is seeking to reduce short-term borrowing costs and support favourable pricing for upcoming bond issuances.

In the short term, analysts anticipate modest yield declines, supported by further disinflation in the April 2024 inflation figures.

Last week, yields fell across the curve: the 91-day, 182-day, and 364-day bills declined by 9 basis points (bps), 26bps, and 142bps week-on-week to 15.23%, 15.77%, and 16.96%, respectively.

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However, the World Bank projects a significant reduction in inflation to 9.4% by 2026. In its April 2025 Africa Pulse Report, the World Bank estimated that Ghana’s inflation rate would drop further to 8.0% in 2027.

“Of 47 countries in the region, 14 still have inflation rates of two digits or more—including Angola, Ethiopia, Ghana, Malawi, Nigeria, Sudan, and Zimbabwe, among others. By 2027, the number of countries with two-digit or higher inflation rates is expected to fall to six,” the report stated.

The report noted that inflation will continue to converge toward target levels across African countries, though there may be challenges if inflation risks rise due to the implementation of more restrictive trade policies globally.

The report also highlighted that inflation rates are still in double digits for countries such as Angola, Burundi, Ghana, Malawi, Nigeria, Sudan, and Zimbabwe.

Meanwhile, the median inflation rate in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to decline from 7.1% in 2023 to 4.5% in 2024, with a slight rise to an annual average rate of 4.6% projected for 2025–2027.

The World Bank indicated that approximately 70% of countries in the region experienced a deceleration of inflation in 2024. This decline can be attributed to the easing of supply chain pressures, the impact of contractionary monetary and fiscal policies, and greater currency stability. However, the variability of inflation across countries remains high.

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According to IC Insights, the latest decline in annual inflation is a positive sign.

“We note that the cooling impact of the 100 basis points hike in the policy rate to 28.0% and the intensified liquidity mop-up is yet to be fully reflected in price dynamics. Additionally, Ghana’s President assented to the Bill to repeal the E-levy Act on 2nd April 2025, partly easing the tax regime and potentially slowing price increases,” the report stated.

“These complementary fiscal and monetary policy measures boost our optimism for faster disinflation in the months ahead, especially with the May 2025 inflation print expected on 4th June 2025,” it added.

IC Insights also highlighted early indications of favorable weather conditions as the planting season begins, and noted that the approval of the 2025 fiscal measures provides timely agricultural support, with benefits expected to be realized during the crop harvest in the third quarter of 2025.

For April 2025, IC Insights anticipates a 70 basis points decline in the annual inflation rate to 21.7%, as the stable Ghanaian cedi and tighter policy regime help tame demand pressure. However, supply-side constraints, particularly with food items, may nudge month-on-month inflation up to 1.2%.

Ghana’s annual headline inflation surprised to the downside in March 2025, posting a third consecutive month of decline. This suggests a strengthening pace of disinflation each month.

Headline inflation declined by 70 basis points to 22.4% year-on-year in March 2025, marking the lowest level in four months. This development somewhat dampens the renewed post-Monetary Policy Committee concerns about a potential upturn in domestic yields.

This indicates a slowdown in prices of goods and services quoted at the production level.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change over time in the selling prices of goods and services as received by domestic producers and indicates that month-on-month producer inflation between February and March 2025 stood at 0.6 percent, lower than the 1.5 percent seen the previous month.

A sectoral breakdown shows that producer price inflation in the industry sector, excluding the construction sector, decreased from 42.9 percent in February 2025 to 36.3 percent in March 2025.

In the construction sector the rate declined to 15.4 percent in March 2025, while in the Services sector it stood at 7.2 percent during the same period.

The Industry sector remained the main driver of producer inflation, recording a year-on-year inflation rate of 36.3 and representing a 6.6 percentage point decrease relative to the rate recorded in February, with a month-on-month change of 0.7 percent.

Industrial producer price inflation in the Mining and Quarrying sub-sector declined by 9.2 percentage points to 35.4 percent, compared to 44.6 percent in February 2025.

The Manufacturing sub-sector increased by 2.0 percentage points to 22.8 percent in March 2025 with Electricity and Gas sub-sector recording an inflation rate of 5.1 percent representing a decrease of 4.6 percentage points from 9.7 percent in February 2025.

The Water supply, sewerage and waste management sub-sector recorded an inflation rate of 4.8 percent.

The year-on-year rate of construction producer price inflation for March 2025 was 15.4 percent, representing a 0.4 percentage point decrease from February 2025 (15.8 percent). The month-on-month change between February 2025 and March 2025 was 0.1 percent.

On sub-sector basis, inflation in Construction of buildings decreased by 1.6 percentage points from 15.9 percent in February 2025 to 14.3 percent in March 2025. The Specialised Construction activities sub-sector recorded inflation of 17.9 percent in March 2025 compared to 18.5 percent in February 2025.

The Civil Engineering sub-sector recorded no change in its inflation rate, remaining at 15.7 percent for March 2025.

The year-on-year services producer price inflation is 7.2 percent, representing a 0.6 percentage point decrease from February 2025 (7.8 percent) with a month-on-month change of 0.2 percent.

Inflation in the Transport and Storage sub-sector decreased by 2.3 percentage points from 22.7 percent as at February 2025 to 20.4 percent in March 2025.

The Accommodation and Food Services sub-sector rate decreased by 6.5 percentage points from 29.1 percent in February 2025 to 22.6 percent in March 2025, and the Information and Communication sub-sector recorded an inflation rate of 4.1 percent.

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According to Dr Amin Adam, this was a deliberate attempt to misrepresent the financial management of the previous New Patriotic Party (NPP) administration.

Speaking at a press conference held by the Minority Caucus on Thursday, March 13, he challenged the credibility of the figures presented, arguing that the budget data exaggerated the fiscal deficit at 7.6% of GDP and the primary deficit at 3.6% of GDP.

“An economy with such strong revenue performance and expenditure management, as seen from the budget data, cannot produce the kind of elevated fiscal outturns the Minister announced,” he stated.

Dr Amin Adam further accused the government of fabricating false claims to damage the NPP administration’s reputation.

“They have erroneously churned out wrong data in a bid to tarnish the image of the NPP administration by including GH¢49.2 billion in expenditure claims without any basis,” he alleged.

He warned that such distortions undermine the credibility of Ghana’s fiscal data and could have long-term consequences on investor confidence and the country’s economic outlook.

The former Finance Minister called on the government to provide clear justifications for the expenditure claims and urged Ghanaians to scrutinise the figures presented.

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Addressing journalists, Government Statistician Prof. Samuel Kobina Annim noted that the consistent decline in food inflation is influencing the overall inflation rate.

“In the last four months, you’ve seen a consistent decline in food inflation on a month-on-month basis, declining by 2.0 percentage points between November 2024 and February 2025,” Annim said.

He added that despite the decline, the annual inflation rate in February remains the third-highest in the last 10 months.

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He made these remarks in Parliament on Tuesday, March 4, while contributing to President Mahama’s State of the Nation Address (SONA).

Dr. Boako pointed out that key economic indicators such as inflation and the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) suggest that the decline in T-bill rates is inconsistent with the Bank of Ghana’s monetary policy framework.

He noted that the prevailing inflation rate stands at 23.5%, the MPR at 27%, while the 91-day T-bill is at 19.76%, making the drop in rates an anomaly.

“First, the decline is not consistent with the economic fundamentals – inflation at 23.5%, MPR at 27%, and 91-day T-bill at 19.76%,” he stated.

Dr. Boako explained that this situation results in negative real returns for commercial banks that invest in T-bills, making it an unattractive option for financial institutions.

According to him, there is excess liquidity in the economy that ought to be mopped up. However, he urged the government to open up the long end of the bond market to create more investment options rather than directing all investments toward short-term instruments like T-bills.

Dr. Boako warned that since current T-bill rates offer negative real returns, investors may shift to other markets, including the foreign exchange market, which could further depreciate the cedi.

He, therefore, called for a more coherent monetary policy approach to ensure that interest rates reflect economic realities and attract sustainable investments.

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This will nudge back down towards the pre-pandemic average of 12.4% year-on-year over 2015-2019.

“While Ghanaian inflation will follow a more stable and cooling path over 2025, it has started 2025 relatively sticky, coming in at 23.5% year-on-year in January. This is an acceleration from the 2024 low of 20.3% year-on-year in August 2024. Despite the slight reacceleration, inflation will continue to broadly come down and is supporting improving households purchasing power, particularly when considering inflation hit a peak of 54.1% in December 2022”, it stated in a report titled “Ghana 2025 Consumer Outlook: Growth Moves Up As Stronger Tailwinds Emerge”.

It added that the reacceleration of food inflation over quarter 4, 2024, and into 2025 is posing some concern for households over the short term.

Given that food and non-alcoholic drinks account for more than 42% of total household spending in Ghana, it pointed out that sticky prices will remain somewhat of a drag on spending and will see households retain a focus on essentials.

“Key household spending segments, such as housing and utilities as well as transport prices are however beginning to come down and are settling following the upward revision of water and electricity tariffs in July 2024”, it stated.

As inflation across the three segments settle over 2025, it alluded that households will see their purchasing power improve and demand for more non-essential segments begin to improve.

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Speaking at the Africa Business Forum 2025 on Monday, February 17, in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, Mahama outlined strategic efforts to address key economic challenges, including cedi depreciation, high inflation, soaring interest rates, and a growing debt burden.

The forum, organized by the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, was themed: “Moving from Potential to Prosperity: Activating Africa’s Regional Value Chain.”

Mahama stressed the need to analyze the root causes of Ghana’s economic crisis while implementing decisive measures, including a comprehensive debt management plan.

“In a crisis, the first thing you do is focus on stabilizing, and that is what we are focused on—bringing interest rates and inflation down, stabilizing the currency, and dealing with the debt overhang. That is where our focus is for now,” he stated.

He further emphasized the importance of addressing the underlying causes to prevent a recurrence.

“At the same time, we must analyze the factors that brought Ghana to this point and implement steps to ensure we do not end up in this situation again. That will entail strengthening the Fiscal Responsibility Act and the Public Financial Management Act.

“We need to cut out waste and reduce corruption. These are some of the critical issues that must be addressed,” he assured.

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