In a statement issued Wednesday, COPEC projected that “Petroleum prices beginning the 1st window of March, 2026 are expected to see some marginal increments across the pumps.”

According to the chamber, “Petrol is expected to go up marginally by 3.59%, Diesel by 1.52% whiles LPG could witness a decline of -1.57% across various pumps respectively.”

Explaining the outlook, COPEC said global crude prices edged up by about 1.25%, rising from $70.90 per barrel to $71.79 per barrel. Over the same period, the cedi appreciated only slightly against the dollar.

“The Cedi, however, witnessed a marginal appreciation against the Dollar to close trading from an average interbank rate of $1:GHS11.0990 at the start of the current window to $1:GHS11.0723 (0.24%) as of the close of the window,” the statement noted.

For petrol, COPEC said the international Free On Board (FOB) price jumped significantly.

“With the international FOB price of petrol increasing from $652.64/MT to $685.27/MT (5.03%) and a currency appreciation of about 0.24%, the retail price of petrol works up to an increment of 3.59%.”

It projected that “the retail price of Petrol is expected to be selling between GHS11.8/L and GHS13/L, within a ±5% range of COPEC’s projection.”

Diesel is also expected to record a marginal rise.

“With the International FOB price of diesel increasing from $695.94/MT to $711.86MT (2.29%) and cedi’s appreciation averages of 0.24%, the projected retail pump price for diesel in the next window shall work up to an increment of 1.52%.”

COPEC said diesel prices are likely to range “between GHS12.73/L and GHS14.0/L within a ±5% range of COPEC’s projection.”

LPG, however, could offer some relief to consumers.

“With the international FOB price of LPG decreasing from $508.77MT to $503.59/MT (-1.5%) and the cedi’s appreciation of about 0.24%, the projected retail price of LPG is expected to decline marginally by -1.57%.”

Within the allowable margin of error, LPG is projected to sell “between GHS11.48/kg and GHS12.69/kg.”

Despite the expected adjustments, COPEC urged restraint at the pumps.

“In conclusion, it is the expectation of COPEC that the various Oil Marketing Companies would maintain prices across the pumps in order not to overburden the consumer with these expected increments in the coming window,” the statement signed by Executive Secretary Duncan Amoah said.

The projections suggest that while currency stability provides some cushion, global market pressures continue to dictate pump pricing trends.

This would driven by geopolitical tensions, potential US Fed interest rate cuts, and supply shortfalls.

According to Databank Research, gold prices may reach US$2,600-US$3,100, while cocoa prices could rise between US$7,000 and US$9,600.

“We expect gold prices to trade higher in 2025, ranging from US$2600-US$3100 on the prolonged effect of geopolitical tension. We are optimistic about a recovery in gold prices throughout 2025 as geopolitical uncertainties are likely to drive safe-haven demand. Additionally, we foresee further interest rate cuts by the US Fed in 2025, could drive gold prices high, potentially reaching between US$2,600 and US$3,100 per ounce following the January 2025 FOMC meeting”.

Furthermore, it said “Given the positive outlook for gold prices, we believe local investors in Ghana could diversify their portfolios by considering the New Gold ETF and the Bank of Ghana’s Ghana Gold Coin (GGC). We believe these assets provide an opportunity to benefit from rising global gold prices while serving as a hedge against local currency depreciation”.

The expected rise in cocoa price will be due to a significant supply constraint from Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, which are slowly recovering from adverse weather with illegal gold mining in Ghana affecting some cocoa farms.

“We asset that the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), effective in early 2025, will further restrict supply availability, likely keeping prices elevated amid strong global demand for chocolate”.

Brent crude to trade below US$76 per barrel

Databank Research also expects Brent crude oil prices to trade below US$76 per barrel in 2025.

This will be influenced by high US inventories and a shift towards cleaner energy.

“Our outlook remains cautious as major consumers, such as China and North America, face economic challenges alongside increasing demand for sustainable energy sources. Consequently, global oil demand growth is projected to decline from 1.74 million barrels per day (bpd) to 1.64 million bpd in 2025”.

This will reflect a broader trend of slowing consumption amid economic uncertainties and a transition to alternative energy.

Source: Joy Business

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Vessel-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg show the ship left its initial anchorage Thursday morning and moored at the single-point mooring on Friday afternoon. The SPM is connected to storage tanks at the refinery by a sub-sea pipeline.

The tanker left the SPM on Monday morning, with its draft indicating it had discharged its cargo. It loaded about 600,000 barrels of crude from the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk in late January and is the first observed Russian shipment to the West African country in at least four years, the data show. 

Ghana’s National Petroleum Authority granted a delivery period for the cargo to be unloaded, but national security considerations held up the process, according to people familiar with the matter. When the tanker was en route, the head of the NPA said the shipment would be blocked if it were bound for the country.

Clearance was given for the tanker after claims that the cargo was from Kazakhstan, one of the people said. A port agent report for Novorossiysk and data from data intelligence firms Vortexa and Kpler showed it originated from Russia.

The Tema refinery, Ghana’s only major crude processing plant, has been shut for about two years, although the government has given assurances that it will resume this year.

The Accra-based Institute for Energy Security identified Platon Gas Oil Ghana Ltd. as the purchaser of the cargo. The company, which operates a small refinery adjacent to the refinery, leased storage tanks at its larger neighbor, IES Executive Director Nana Amoasi VII previously said in an interview with Ghana’s Citi Newsroom. It would take at least six months for Platon to process the crude, he added.