The Ghana cedi will end 2025 at GH¢15.50 to one US dollar, with an annual average of GH¢15.30/US dollar, Fitch Solutions has predicted.
This forecast is significantly higher than the GH¢14.00 end-of-year prediction by Absa Bank. The local unit, however, started the year trading at GH¢15.83 to the American greenback.
In its latest report titled “High Gold Prices Will Shield Ghanaian Economy From Tariff Fallout”, the UK-based research firm said it expects the Bank of Ghana (BoG) to prioritize cedi stability, supported by elevated gold prices.
However, this, it said, will not be sufficient to maintain stability throughout the entire year.
“We expect the BoG to focus on keeping the cedi stable, facilitated by elevated gold prices. Amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding US trade policy, market expectations of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, and continued geopolitical tensions, our commodities team forecasts that gold prices will average a record US$3,100 per ounce this year – up 29.7% from 2024.”
The report also cited a decline in Ghana’s energy import bill, due to falling oil prices, as another key factor that will boost the country’s external position.
“Coupled with a lower energy import bill due to declining oil prices, this will drive Ghana’s current account surplus to an all-time high of 6.9% of GDP in 2025,” it stated.
Fitch Solutions further expects Ghana’s foreign exchange reserves to rise from US$6.4 billion to US$11.5 billion.
“The strengthened external position will enable the BoG to mitigate any bouts of cedi volatility stemming from global risk-off sentiment,” the report concluded.
Cedi Records 17.17% Appreciation Against The Dollar
The Ghana cedi continued its impressive rally against the US dollar, appreciating by 17.17% as of yesterday, May 19, 2025.
In the retail market, it was trading at GH¢13.50 to the US dollar, reinforcing its reputation as the world’s best-performing currency so far this year.
Last week, the local unit appreciated by 2.3% week-on-week against the dollar, and 3.5% against the euro.